What’s on today
Stoked to finish the College Football season on a
high note with a two-unit win on the Tigers to cover in the BCS National
Championship game; focus returns to the NBA today with an even dozen games
scheduled with the Spurs’ visit to the resurgent Grizzlies the most intriguing
game of the day; there are also 10 NHL games on the slate with the pick of the
day out west where Boston will face the LA Kings; I’ll also have an
early tip for the Magic Millions 2yo Classic as part of today’s racing preview
while my pick for tonight’s Capital One semi-final between Sunderland and
Manchester United will be posted soon; GL punters!
NHL for January 8
Calgary Flames (15-21-6, 36 points) @ Phoenix Coyotes
(20-12-9, 51 points), Jobing.com Arena, Glendale, AZ, Wednesday, January 8, 12.40pm
The Phoenix Coyotes are aiming to show improvement at
home, and a meeting with the Calgary Flames couldn’t come at a better time. The
Coyotes look to reverse a sluggish stretch on home ice and continue their
success over the Flames here. Phoenix (20-12-9) won nine of its first 10 at
home this season, averaging 4.2 goals. But the Coyotes have undermined that run
by going 2-5-2 over their last nine games in the desert, mustering 2.7 goals
per contest. They’ve lost two of the first three on this six-game homestand,
squandering a two-goal, second-period lead Saturday in a 5-3 loss to
Philadelphia. Facing the Flames (15-21-6) could provide a spark. The Coyotes
have won seven of the past eight home meetings, including a 4-2 victory on October
22 but lost 4-1 at Calgary on December 4. Shane Doan (pictured) had an assist in that
meeting, but he missed the next 12 games with a form of Rocky Mountain Fever. Doan
has one point in nine of his past 11 home match-ups with the Flames.
Mike Ribeiro had five goals and three assists during
a five-game point streak versus Calgary. That includes scoring twice in the
October win. Mike Smith will likely be back in net looking to continue his home
success against Calgary. He’s won three of four meetings in the series at
Jobing.com Arena, posting a 1.48 GAA. Smith, though, enters
this match-up 1-5-2 with a 3.54 GAA over his last nine home games, making 23
saves against the Flyers. He won’t have the assistance of Oliver Ekman-Larsson,
who will miss a second straight game with an upper-body injury. The Flames are
looking to build on Monday's 4-3 win at Colorado after being outscored 10-1
during a four-game slide. Michael Cammalleri, the team leader with 13 goals,
has 20 points in 22 career visits to Phoenix. However, he’s been held off the
score sheet with a minus-3 rating over the past two. Sean Monahan seems to be
shaking out of his slump, scoring twice in three games to match his production
from the previous 12. I suspect the Yotes will win this in a canter, so let’s
bet the puck-line here.
Confirmed bets
Calgary Flames @ Phoenix Coyotes -1.5 (one unit @
$2.55) WIN (0-6)
Leans
Carolina Hurricanes @ Buffalo Sabres POSTPONED
St Louis Blues -1.5 $2.65 @ Edmonton Oilers WIN (5-2)
Toronto Raptors (16-16, 10-8 away) @ Indiana Pacers (27-6,
16-1 home), Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN, Wednesday, January 8, 11.10am
After spending some extra time in warmer weather, the
Toronto Raptors will try to stifle the league-leading Indiana Pacers for the
second time in a week. The Raptors, though, will play the rematch in chilly
Indiana, where the Pacers have lost just once this season. Toronto (16-16) beat
Indiana 95-82 on New Year’s Day – the Pacers’ only loss in their last eight
games – as part of a season-high five-game win streak that was snapped with a
102-97 loss in Miami on Sunday. With snow and bitter cold lingering in the
Midwest, the Raptors chose to stay in South Florida until Monday. Toronto is
hoping that move leads to another strong performance against Indiana (27-6).
The Raptors caused the Pacers to commit a season-high 23 turnovers and record
their lowest point total of the season. Indiana has won back-to-back contests
since that loss and had to overcome another subpar offensive performance on Sunday
in Cleveland. The Pacers matched that season-low scoring effort from the loss
in Toronto, shot a season-worst 36.4 percent and nearly blew a 16-point lead in
the fourth quarter in an 82-78 victory.
The Pacers, allowing league lows of 88.6 points and
41.1 per cent shooting, limited Toronto to 39.5 per cent in the most recent
meeting in Indiana and won 91-84 on November 8. The Raptors had won their
previous two games there, but this Pacers team is a league-best 16-1 at home. Toronto,
though, has won seven of nine away from home and 10 of 14 overall since it
began the process of trading Rudy Gay to Sacramento as part of a seven-player
deal. With 30 points, Gay was the only player to score more than 12 in the loss
at Indiana in November, but the Raptors had four players with 13 or more in the
New Year’s victory, led by DeRozan’s 26. He is averaging 24.0 points, 5.3
rebounds and 5.0 assists in the last three games, but he’s often struggled at
Indianapolis. He’s shot 30.7 percent in seven career games there 9his worst
showing in any city) and his 37.5 per cent shooting in 14 match-ups with the
Pacers is his lowest versus any Eastern Conference opponent. Not too much
interest in the line, but I fancy the total will sail ‘under’ quite
comfortably.
Confirmed bets
Washington Wizards -1 @ Charlotte Bobcats (one unit @
$1.91) WIN (97-83)
NHL for January 8
Philadelphia Flyers WIN @ New Jersey Devils (one unit
@ $2.00) WIN (3-2)
New York Islanders @ Toronto Maple Leafs +5.5 (one
unit @ $1.77) WIN (5-3)
Pittsburgh Penguins WIN @ Vancouver Canucks (one unit
@ $1.80) WIN (5-4)
New York Islanders WIN $2.30 @ Toronto Maple Leafs
WIN (5-3)
San Jose Sharks @ Nashville Predators + 5.5 $1.83
LOSE (2-3)
Tampa Bay Lightning WIN $1.91 @ Winnipeg Jets WIN
(4-2)
Minnesota Wild @ Los Angeles Kings WIN NT $1.80 LOSE
(2-1)
St Louis Blues -1.5 $2.65 @ Edmonton Oilers WIN (5-2)
Boston Bruins @ Anaheim Ducks WIN $1.72 WIN (2-5)
NBA for January 8
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers -187 (one unit @
$1.91) WIN (79-86)
Detroit Pistons +3 @ New York Knicks (one unit @
$1.91) LOSE (85-89)
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies +6 (one unit @
$1.91) WIN (110-108)
Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks -209 (one unit
@ $1.91) WIN (97-110)
Leans
Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers -207 $1.91
WIN (93-111)
Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets -203.5 $1.91 LOSE
(98-129)
New Orleans Pelicans @ Miami Heat -8.5 $1.91 WIN
(88-107)
Phoenix Suns @ Chicago Bulls -190 $1.91 WIN (87-92)
Portland Trail Blazers -5 @ Sacramento Kings LOSE
(119-123)
Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks -201 WIN
(101-80)
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 @ Utah Jazz LOSE (101-112)
Football (Capital One Cup) for January 8
Semi-final: Sunderland v Manchester United, Stadium
of Light, Sunderland, England, Wednesday, January 8, 6.45am
Might be a bit of pressure on David Moyes (pictured) and
Manchester United to eke out a result here? Their FA Cup hopes were ended by
Swansea on Sunday and the title race appears to be disappearing out of sight
with leaders Arsenal 11 points clear. David Moyes never won a trophy at
Everton, despite leading the Toffees to the FA Cup final, and a major trophy in
his maiden campaign at Old Trafford would at least lift that burden. One boost
for Moyes’ side is they have already beaten the Black Cats on their home turf
back in October, with teenage winger Adnan Januzaj announcing himself as one to
watch with a brace of goals. A similar outcome for United would perhaps clear
some of the gloom hanging over Old Trafford at present. Manchester United have
doubts over Rio Ferdinand’s fitness after he limped off with a knee problem
against Swansea but Nemanja Vidic, Patrice Evra and Michael Carrick could all
return to the line-up. Manchester United are yet to concede a goal in their
three League Cup ties so far.
They’ve slipped to the foot of the table as a result
of their League form but Gus Poyet's side has found solace in cup competitions –
notably with progress to the final four here. Sunderland dispatched Chelsea in
the last round after a thrilling comeback, and the way the season has panned
out so far has evoked memories of the last time they reached Wembley in this
competition back in 1985. That year Len Ashurst’s side tumbled out of the top
flight but somehow battled their way to the old Twin Towers of Wembley before
losing to Norwich City. Craig Gardner and Sebastian Larsson were part of the
Birmingham side that beat Arsenal in the 2011 final, but also went on to be
relegated into the Championship. Sunderland are hopeful of welcoming back the
defensive duo of John O’Shea and Wes Brown to face their old club and bolster
the centre-back options. Sunderland have gone 20 games without a win against
Manchester United in all competitions. I love the visitors in this spot and
will settle on a ‘silver’ bet though the gold could be argued.
Confirmed bet
Sunderland v Manchester United WIN (two units @
$1.70) LOSE (2-1)
Leans
Sunderland v Manchester United +2.5 $1.91 WIN (2-1)
Football (Capital One Cup) for January 8
Anytime goal scorer – Danny Wellbeck $2.25 LOSE
Another week on the punting Callander
Media reports throughout the morning – including an interview on RSN with track manager Mick Goodie – indicated that the course would race truly. Sam Hyland, speaking on TVN, confirmed that the running would be fair on an improving surface rated a dead 4. But it became apparent early in the meeting that the track had been overwatered and the inside was a no-go zone (not quite as bad as pictured above). For those of us who’d completed our ratings based on this incorrect information and watched tip after tip bowled over by midfield runners that made straight for the middle of the track, it was bloody frustrating.
It’s been a similar story across the summer. Gear changes announced minutes before the start of a race and jockeys ignoring riding instructions have been just some of the other issues. At the same time of the year, KFC Big Bash League matches are turning over more than $50 million per night. Punters are already spending increasing amounts on sports, and this trend will only continue unless the racing industry stops treating its key revenue stream like a ship of fools.
• From a punting perspective, the Melbourne Heart
have been the equivalent of a money tree this season. The A-League cellar
dwellers are winless in 13 games and have managed just nine goals while
conceding 22. The club’s reaction was predictable – sack the coach. That’s
right – don’t change the board or make any changes to the administration or
within the football department; just sack a middle manager in the corporate
structure and everything will be rosy.
Having played, watched and covered football for more than 40 years, I can state with a fair agree of confidence that the replacement of a coach rarely works and simply papers over wider issues within the club. Was John Aloisi a good coach? Based on just one measurable statistic, results, obviously not. Did he have the talent to compete with the best sides? Clearly not. Will interim replacement John Van ‘t Schip do any better? Well, I’d be very surprised to see the Heart climb off the bottom.
I’m pretty disappointed in the Heart as an A-League expansion outfit. The board’s backroom dealings in negotiating the sale of the club have been far from transparent to members, staff or the League. Aloisi (pictured above) was left without much in the way of funds to build the squad while improving the appearance of the accounts. The Heart should also be condemned for allowing an extreme ‘ultra’ presence to appear in the stands with the club in its infancy.
Then there’s the 500lb gorilla who’s been nothing less than a distraction since his return to the city – Harry Kewell. The former Socceroo has been a divisive presence at club and international level for much of his professional career and he’s clearly positioned for a major role within the Heart once the sale is completed. For the sake of Melbourne’s sporting landscape and the future of the A-League, let’s hope the Heart adds some spine to their body of work.
• Celebrations, with coverage bordering on the
sycophantic, continue for the Australia Test squad after its 5-0 series win
over England. Kudos to Michael Clarke and the Aussies for a workman-like
performance in which the bowlers excelled and the batsmen did what they had to
without every hitting any great heights. While the local cricket media have
been quick to fawn over the side like a bunch of pre-pubescent teens at a One
Direction screamfest, the result deserves closer examination.
In the reverse series last year, Alastair Cook won the toss on three occasions after which England triumphed on all three occasions. Michael Clarke won the toss twice, with Australia drawing both games. In this Series, Clarke won the toss in the first four Tests. In the Fifth Test, Cook finally had first call after which the English had the Aussies at 5-97 before the tide again turned in the home side’s favour. That Australia could dominate the series with just two scores of more than 400 points to yet another capitulation by an England touring team. I could not sum up the series better than famed cricket writer/punter Ed Hawkins:
In the reverse series last year, Alastair Cook won the toss on three occasions after which England triumphed on all three occasions. Michael Clarke won the toss twice, with Australia drawing both games. In this Series, Clarke won the toss in the first four Tests. In the Fifth Test, Cook finally had first call after which the English had the Aussies at 5-97 before the tide again turned in the home side’s favour. That Australia could dominate the series with just two scores of more than 400 points to yet another capitulation by an England touring team. I could not sum up the series better than famed cricket writer/punter Ed Hawkins:
“England should not have succumbed in five consecutive Tests to an average Australia team. They should not have been hammered day after day, session after session, over after over. That they did despite the talent and the coaching, profiling, pampering and preening, damns them. This series is an allegory of unprofessionalism, mental weakness and mealy-mouthed lip service to the moxie needed to even compete at the highest level. No-one is seriously talking about a fine Australia team.” If any Aussies have doubts about the credibility of this 5-0 whitewash, check out the prices for their visit to South Africa for a three-Test series next month: South Africa $1.65, Australia $3.40. I’ll be on the home side.
Final word: So which events attracted the most prop betting action at UK betting shops in 2013? Hold on to your hats – the birth of the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge’s child stirred the most interest. All eyes were on the Royal couple, as punters started to make bets first on the baby’s gender, then even on the boy’s name. Pope Benedict XVI’s resignation back in March gave bookies the chance to make more money by inviting punters to bet on who will take his place. Even the Nobel Peace Prize for Literature attracted its fair share of interest. Give me two cockroaches and I’ll give you a market!
• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.
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