Daily tips for January 9

What’s on today

We kick-off with the first leg of the Capital One (League) Cup featuring the high-flying Manchester City and the hapless West Ham United – how far City? Nine cards are on the NBA slate with plenty of big lines on offer – it’s not every day you see the Lakers as 14.5-point underdogs; there are also three NHL cards scheduled while I’ll have a look at tonight’s Big Bash contest featuring the Melbourne Stars and Adelaide Strikers; GL punters!

Cricket (Big Bash League) for January 9

Melbourne Stars (4-0-0, 8 points) v Adelaide Strikers (2-1-1, 5 points), MCG, Melbourne, Thursday, January 9, 7.40pm

It’s reaching crunch-time in the KFC Big Bash League and it seems the title is the Melbourne Stars to lose. The tournament favourites can virtually secure a semi-final berth with a fifth win of the season. They were brutal in their disposal of the Melbourne Renegades last Saturday night in front of a record Etihad Stadium crowd, and another bumper crowd is set to grace the MCG to see them do it all again at home. The Adelaide Strikers loom as potential spoilers, and can jump from fourth to second on the competition table with a win here. That point they gained from the no-result opening match in Hobart could yet prove crucial. To win, they need more for their batting, which Michael Klinger aside, hasn't quite been firing on all cylinders in recent games. A vintage Brad Hodge (pictured) 88 helped push the Stars to 175 after they won the toss in their last meeting on December 27, 2012. Adelaide fell just eight runs after requiring 41 from the last 12 balls.

With the Stars set to lose Glenn Maxwell, James Faulkner and Clint McKay to the Australian ODI team following this match, victory is crucial here for the Stars. They’ve smashed the most sixes in the tournament (37), while the Strikers have been the most economical bowling team, with three bowlers – Shakib Al Hasan, the injured Johan Botha, and Michael Neser – operating with an economy rate of less than a run-a-ball. However, that can quickly change if they give the likes of Cameron White, Hodge and Luke Wright half a chance. White finished unbeaten on 84 from just 49 balls, after being dropped on 22 and 37 in the win over the Renegades. The Stars are the only undefeated team this season, but they have yet to win one thing – the toss. And it doesn’t seem to matter what they’re asked to do first, winning their first two matches batting first, and their next two by bowling first. Despite their dominance, the price of $1.50 on the Stars is too short as the Strikers are no bums.

Confirmed bet

Melbourne Stars most sixes (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (3-2)

Leans

Melbourne Stars v Adelaide Strikers WIN $2.60 LOSE

Melbourne Stars most runs – Brad Hodge $5.50 LOSE (DNB)

Racing for January 9

Horse racing: Seymour (Vic), Port Macquarie (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Penola (SA), Albany (WA). Harness racing: Charlton (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Redcliffe (Qld), Penrith (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Northam (WA). Greyhound racing: Traralgon (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Maitland (NSW), Warrnambool (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Albion Park (Qld), Mandurah (WA).

For something a bit different today, let’s look ahead to the feature event this weekend – the $2 million Magic Millions 2yo Classic over 1200 metres around the tight Gold Coast track on Saturday. I’m very keen on the chances of #7 Invisible. He was rated an $11 chance after his debut win at Canterbury and is now into $5 after drawing barrier 7 for the Classic. I suggest investing at this price as he’ll probably fall to about $3.50 on Saturday. The Team Hawkes trained colt had his first barrier trial on Christmas Eve then defeated Jetwings and Nordic Empire on debut at Canterbury over 1200m on December 28. The All American colt showed good gate speed from his wide barrier to settle outside the leader Jetwings and then found another gear in the straight to win comfortably. I’ll have more tips for Magic Millions Raceday on Saturday.

Confirmed bets

Seymour R8 #15 Mark’s Matilda (win) SCRATCHED

Port Macquarie R4 #4 Mobster (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

Penola R1 #5 Casino Wizard (win) 1st ($1.50)

Leans

Seymour R6 #1 Jetconi (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00)

Seymour R7 #6 Manor Lady (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Port Macquarie R2 #1 Checkout Me Travla (win) 1st ($3.00)

Port Macquarie R7 #2 Mydream (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.60/$1.60)

Port Macquarie R8 #1 Elkay Star (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rockhampton R7 #6 Thankgodforfranc (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00)

Penola R2 #3 Gav’s Gift (win) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Charlton R3 #4 The Ole Buckaroo (win) 1st ($1.60)
Greyhound racing tip: Hobart R5 #8 Topline Star (win) 1st ($1.80)

NHL for January 9

Ottawa Senators (19-18-7, 45 points) @ Phoenix Coyotes (26-12-4, 56 points), Pepsi Center, Denver, CO, Thursday, January 9, 1.40pm

The great thing about sports with uncommonly long seasons is picking the changes in momentum. Lousy sides will go on a solid run; the better teams will drop below their best. The Ottawa Senators fit this mould at the moment – they’ve won four straight and five of six. They’re also on the road in Colorado on facing an Avs team that’s cooled significantly since their blistering pace at the beginning of the year. Since starting 19-6-0, the Avs are just 7-6-4 (or 7-10) in their last 17 games. Colorado was attempting to increase its winning streak to four games before suffering a misstep in a 4-3 setback to Calgary. Top overall pick Nathan MacKinnon tallied twice for the second consecutive contest, but an ankle injury clouds his status for this game. Captain Gabriel Landeskog recorded an assist for the third straight contest and has scored three goals and set up five others during his seven-game point streak. Landeskog will join Sens defenseman Erik Karlsson on Team Sweden at next month’s Winter Olympics.

Captain Jason Spezza (pictured) is expected to return to the line-up for the Ottawa Senators. A hip injury has made Spezza a spectator during the winning streak. Limited to three points during a nine-game stretch before going down with a hip injury, he has 11 goals and 19 assists in 39 contests. Clarke MacArthur scored 58 seconds into overtime on Saturday as Ottawa posted a 4-3 victory over Montreal to snap a four-game road-losing skid. MacArthur has scored in three straight games overall, but has been yet to tally in five career contests versus Colorado. Karlsson has collected 10 goals and 29 assists to put him in the thick of the scoring race among blue-liners. Set to face Colorado for the first time since a 7-1 defeat on October 13, 2011, the Senators have been outscored 22-12 during an 0-3-2 skid in the series. Goalie Craig Anderson, traded from Colorado to the Senators during the 2010-11 season, has allowed a combined 12 goals in going 0-2-0 against his former team. Anderson owns a 1.99 GAA during his season-best five-start winning streak.

Confirmed bet

Ottawa Senators WIN @ Colorado Avalanche (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (3-4)

Leans

Montreal Canadiens WIN $1.91 @ Philadelphia Flyers LOSE (1-3)

New York Rangers @ Chicago Blackhawks -5.5 $1.83 WIN (3-2)

NBA for January 9

Los Angeles Lakers (14-21, 6-11 away) @ Houston Rockets (22-13, 14-5 home), Toyota Center, Houston, TX, Thursday, January 9, 12.10pm

I’ve had this game circled in the schedule for some time where the Houston Rockets hope easing into 2014 hasn’t cooled off their top scorer. James Harden and the Rockets end a five-day break and play just their second game of the new year when they host the Los Angeles Lakers here. When the Rockets (22-13) last hit the floor on January 3 against New York, Harden was close to unstoppable. The shooting guard went 10 of 19 from the floor and hit all 12 of his free throws, finishing with 37 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Harden, who had 38 points and 10 rebounds in a New Year’s Eve loss against Sacramento, has attempted at least 12 free throws five times this season and the Rockets are 4-1 in those games (the lone loss coming against the Lakers on November 7). The Rockets, though, have struggled from three-point range over their last five games, shooting 26.5 per cent (35 for 132) since a 12-for-24 performance in a Christmas Day win at San Antonio.

The Lakers (14-21) will be playing their second game in as many nights after losing 110-97 at Dallas. Jodie Meeks scored 24, while Pau Gasol, who had been averaging 24.3 points on 48.6 per cent shooting in the previous three games, had 15 on 5-of-14 shooting. Los Angeles is 3-4 this season in the second leg of back-to-backs, scoring 92.0 points per game in those contests – nearly eight lower than its season average. The Lakers had one of their better games from the outside this season in the first meeting with the Rockets. Steve Blake hit the last of the team’s season-high 16 three-pointers with 1.3 seconds left to lift Los Angeles to a 99-98 win in Houston. Former Lakers center Dwight Howard, who signed with the Rockets in the offseason, had 15 points and 14 rebounds in the loss. He missed seven free throws in the fourth quarter and went five of 16 at the line in the game. Look for the Rockets to serve up a nice cold dish of revenge here.

Confirmed bets

Golden State Warriors @ Brooklyn Nets +6.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (98-102)

Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks -187.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (87-97)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets -14 (one unit @ $1.91) PUSH (99-113)

Phoenix Suns +7.5 @ Minnesota Timberwolves (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (104-103)

Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Clippers -10.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (105-111)

Leans

Detroit Pistons +6 $1.91 @ Toronto Raptors LOSE (91-112)

Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs -207.5 $1.91 WIN (90-112)

Indiana Pacers -5 $1.91 @ Atlanta Hawks LOSE (87-97)

Washington Wizards @ New Orleans Pelicans -3.5 $1.91 LOSE (102-96)

Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves -212.5 $1.91 WIN (104-103)

Orlando Magic @ Portland Trail Blazers +207.5 $1.91 LOSE (94-110)

Football (Capital One Cup) for January 9

Semi-final, first leg: Manchester City v West Ham United, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England, Thursday, January 9, 6.40am

What a trap game this could turn out to be! A trip to the Etihad is probably the last ground in English football that beleaguered West Ham manager Sam Allardyce would like his team to visit right now given his side’s shocking run of form and appalling injury list. The 5-0 defeat his side suffered at the hands of Championship club Nottingham Forest at the weekend resulted in the predictable speculation that Allardyce was set to lose his job but in a letter to the club's supporters he received the backing, for now, from Hammers’ co-owners David Gold and David Sullivan. West Ham have never won the League Cup but the odds on them beating Manchester City over two legs of this semi-final are very long indeed. Allardyce will put Roger Johnson straight into his squad after the defender signed on loan from Wolves for the rest of the season.  They are still without a host of injured players including Winston Reid and Andy Carroll, while captain Kevin Nolan is banned.

In contrast, City have been unstoppable at home and have scored an incredible 53 goals in 14 matches at the Etihad this season. Jesus Navas has been ruled out with a knee injury while Sergio Aguero and Micah Richards are back in training but both are not yet ready for a first-team return. It seems that only complacency could impact the scoreline here, which makes it bloody tough to assess the likely margin. City won the last meeting between the two clubs, away at Upton Park, 3-1 in October. West Ham have won only once at the Etihad Stadium, beating City in an FA Cup quarter-final tie in 2006. Both clubs were League Cup semi-finalists in 1964 and 2011, with West Ham losing to the eventual winners on both occasions. City have twice won the League Cup, beating West Bromwich Albion in 1970 and Newcastle United in 1976 – and were losing finalists against Wolves in 1974. Bosnia striker Edin Dzeko has scored in all three of City’s ties so far this season.

Confirmed bet

Manchester City -2 v West Ham United (one unit @ $2.20) WIN (6-0)

Lean

Alvaro Negredo to score anytime $1.80 WIN

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.