Daily tips for January 6

What’s on today

It’s easy to be cynical about professional sports but even the most hardened critic couldn’t help but be impressed by the stunning comeback of the Indianapolis Colts to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs in yesterday’s AFC Wild-card Game; we have more NFL Wild-card action this morning as the Chargers head to Cincinnati while San Francisco will journey to a frigid Green Bay; the penultimate bowl game of the College Football season features Arkansas State and Ball State while I’m hoping for another winning session with my NBA and NHL tips; my selections for the remaining games in round 3 of the FA Cup are posted here with more to come tomorrow afternoon; GL punters!


NHL for January 6

Winnipeg Jets (19-20-5, 43 points) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (30-12-1, 61 points), CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA, Monday, January 6, 11.10am

Regardless of who’s in the line-up, the Pittsburgh Penguins just keep on winning – especially at home. The same is true when they host the Winnipeg franchise. The Penguins look to match the longest home winning streak in franchise history with a 13th consecutive victory over the Jets in Pittsburgh. The Penguins (30-12-1) have reeled off 11 straight home wins since November 15, their longest since a record 12-game run, set February 22-March 30. During their current streak, a key has been the play of goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury (pictured), one of a handful of Penguins who hasn’t had to miss time this season because of injury or suspension. Fleury has a 1.80 goals-against average with a .943 save percentage in his nine starts during the streak. He is 29-3-0 with a 1.74 GAA in his last 34 games at Consol Energy Center. In Friday’s 5-2 home victory over the New York Rangers, Fleury stopped 33 shots. Chris Kunitz and Jussi Jokinen scored two goals apiece while Sidney Crosby added a goal and two assists.

The Jets (19-20-5), who have allowed 121 goals on the season, have surrendered 21 in their last six road games. Not surprisingly, the team has lost five of those contests. Crosby typically frustrates the Jets, amassing eight goals and 11 assists during a seven-game point streak in the series. He also has five goals and 11 assists in his last five home games versus Winnipeg. Like many teams, the Jets have struggled in Pittsburgh. The franchise, dating back to when they played in Atlanta, has gone 0-10-2 in Pittsburgh since a 4-2 win on December 27, 2006. This will be the first meeting of the season, and the Penguins have taken 17 of the last 20 match-ups. The Jets are coming off Saturday’s 4-1 loss at Boston. Dustin Byfuglien opened the scoring in the first period for Winnipeg, which had 37 shots on goal but went 0 of 3 on the power play. Winnipeg is 0 of 9 with the man advantage in its last five games overall.

Confirmed bets

Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins +5.5 $1.96 WIN (5-6)

Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks WIN NT $1.90 WIN (3-4)

Leans

Nashville Predators @ Carolina Hurricanes -5.5 $1.76 WIN (1-2)

San Jose Sharks @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 $1.85 LOSE (2-3)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Edmonton Oilers +5.5 $1.95 WIN (3-5)

NBA for January 6

Memphis Grizzlies (14-18, 7-7 away) @ Detroit Pistons (14-19, 6-11 home), The Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit, MI, Monday, January 6, 11.40am

If the Detroit Pistons are going to end a three-game losing streak, they need to beat a team they’ve had no success against since 2009. Though the Memphis Grizzlies have just about matched the Pistons’ futility this season, they’ll be going for their ninth straight win against them here. The Pistons (14-19) are also out to end a four-game home skid after closing 2013 on Monday with a 106-99 loss to Washington at the Palace of Auburn Hills. They were outscored 28-12 in the fourth quarter, marking the third time in their last four at home that they’ve let a lead slip away in the final period. Forward Greg Monroe led the Pistons with 22 points and 10 rebounds. Detroit fell to 6-11 at home and had five days off to think about getting things right as it opens the New Year with what appears to be a favourable stretch. Against Washington, Detroit’s league-worst free-throw shooting (66.5 per cent) was again one of its biggest problems. The Pistons went 21 of 35 from the line and are shooting 62.6 per cent over a 1-5 stretch.

Likewise, hitting just one more from the stripe in regulation in a 111-108 overtime loss at Memphis on November 1 could have snapped Detroit’s losing streak to the Grizzlies. The Pistons, who led 75-70 early in the fourth, went 17 for 24 from the line in the loss. Guard Rodney Stuckey scored 19 points off the bench in that contest, though he missed Monday’s game with a shoulder injury and was limited in practice late this week. Memphis continues to struggle without center Marc Gasol, who has been out since suffering a sprained MCL on November 22 against San Antonio. The Grizzlies were 7-5 with him and had won four straight before the injury. Including the loss to the Spurs, they’re 7-13 without the reigning defensive player of the year after falling 111-108 Friday in Denver. Forward Zach Randolph had 25 points and 13 rebounds, and guard Mike Conley scored 23 with eight assists. Conley is shooting 63.6 per cent in his last three games against them. The Grizzlies are 7-4 on the road since losing their first three away from home this season.

Confirmed bets

Memphis Grizzlies WIN @ Detroit Pistons (one unit @ $2.30) WIN (112-84)

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers -181 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (82-78)

Golden State Warriors -3 @ Washington Wizards (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (112-96)

Leans

Toronto Raptors +6.5 @ Miami Heat $1.91 WIN (97-102)

Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder -9 $1.91 WIN (96-119)

New York Knicks @ Dallas Mavericks -202 $1.91 WIN (92-80)

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers +205 $1.91 WIN (137-115)

NFL playoffs (game 2) for January 6

NFC Wild-Card: San Francisco 49ers (12-4, 6-2 away) @ Green Bay Packers (8-7-1, 4-3-1 home), Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI, Monday, January 6, 8.40am

Pic with thanks to bleacherreport.com

The San Francisco 49ers enter the post-season as the league’s hottest team and it may take the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to cool them off when they visit the Green Bay Packers, who clinched the NFC North last week with a 33-28 win at Chicago in Aaron Rodgers’ return to the line-up. It will be a rematch of the season opener, won by host San Francisco 34-28. Green Bay has been unable to slow the 49ers’ offense, surrendering an average of 36.3 points in the past three defeats, including a 45-31 drubbing in last season's playoffs. Green Bay's offence went into a tailspin after Rodgers suffered a fractured collarbone that caused him to miss seven games. Rodgers threw for 318 yards and a pair of TDs in his first game back. Randall Cobb (also back from injury) provides a dangerous weapon opposite Jordy Nelson (10 receptions for 161 yards last week) and opens up the running game for bruising rookie Eddie Lacy, who rushed for 1178 yards and 11 TDs. The big concern is a defence that surrenders 26.8 points, has allowed seven 100-yard rushers in the last nine.

San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick has shown an ability to beat Green Bay with both his legs and arm, rushing for a record 181 yards with a combined four TDs in last year’s playoff victory and throwing for 412 yards and three scoring passes in the week 1 victory. Wideout Michael Crabtree had nine catches for 119 yards and two TDs in last season's playoff meeting and has 19 receptions in five games since returning from Achilles tendon surgery. Anquan Boldin torched the Packers for 13 catches and 208 yards in week 1 while tight end Vernon Davis has surpassed 100 yards in four of his five post-season games. The running game is headed by Frank Gore, who is coming off his seventh 1000-yard season, while San Francisco’s defence has not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and limited 11 of its last 13 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The temperature is expected to be 0°F with wind chills reaching -30. I can’t call this one – slight leans to the 49ers at the line and the ‘over’ but way easier spots than this.

Confirmed bets

None

Leans

San Francisco 49ers -3 $2.00 @ Green Bay Packers PUSH (23-20)

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers +45.5 $1.91 LOSE (23-20)

NFL playoffs (game 1) for January 6

AFC Wild-Card: San Diego Chargers (9-7, 4-4 away) @ Cincinnati Bengals (11-5, 8-0 home), Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Monday, January 6, 5.10am

So San Diego finally gets the chance to play on natural turf for the first time this season and it’s almost certainly going to be covered in snow! Their hosts, the Cincinnati Bengals, were one of three teams to compile an 8-0 record at home this season and look to keep that perfect mark intact in the opening round of the NFL playoffs. The Bengals defeated San Diego 17-10 on December 1 on the way to capturing the AFC North title and reaching the playoffs for the third straight season. Chargers QB Philip Rivers (pictured) rebounded from a pair of turnover-riddled seasons to throw for 4478 yards with 32 TDs and 11 interceptions while leading the league in completion percentage (69.5). Rookie Keenan Allen emerged as a go-to receiver with 71 catches for 1046 yards and five 100-yard games, including eight catches for 106 yards in the first match-up with the Bengals. Ryan Mathews rushed for a career-high 1255 yards but did not practice Thursday due to an ankle injury, while backfield mate Danny Woodhead hauled in 76 passes, second among running backs in the NFL.

Cincinnati hopes the home-field edge can end a lengthy run of futility since its last post-season victory 23 years ago! The only playoff match-up between the teams came in the 1982 AFC title game, when the Bengals prevailed in the ‘Freezer Bowl’ that featured a wind chill of minus-59. The discrepancy in Cincinnati’s performance at home versus on the road is stunning – the Bengals averaged 42 points and had a victory margin of 24 points over their last five home wins. Andy Dalton reached career highs in yards (4296) and TDs (33), but he was also intercepted a career-worst 20 times, including four picks in last week's 34-17 victory over Baltimore. A.J. Green also established career highs with 98 catches for 1426 while matching last season's total of 11 touchdown receptions to complement the running of BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard, who combined for 1451 yards rushing. Cincinnati ranked fifth both against the run (96.5 yards) and pass (209) while limiting five opponents to 17 points or fewer at home. I really like the Chargers here – they have momentum on their side while the over looks a safe play in the snow.

Confirmed bets

San Diego Chargers +7 @ Cincinnati Bengals (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (27-10)

San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals +46 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (27-10)

Leans

San Diego Chargers WIN $3.35 @ Cincinnati Bengals WIN (27-10)

Ryan Mathews – total gross rushing yards +85.5 $1.91 rushing yards LOSE (52)

College Football for January 6

GoDaddy Bowl: Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5, 5-2 Sun Belt) v Ball State Cardinals (10-2, 7-1 MAC), Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL, Monday, January 6, 1pm

The BCS Championship Game may be just 24 hours away but, for Arkansas State and Ball State, this is their grand final. John Thompson will feel like it’s Groundhog Day in Mobile, Alabama. For the second successive season, Arkansas State’s defensive coordinator is also serving as interim head coach for the GoDaddy Bowl – this time after Bryan Harsin bolted for Boise State. Last season he guided Arkansas State to a 17-13 win over Kent State after Gus Malzahn was hired at Auburn. Expect plenty of offence in this match-up as Ball State averages 40.1 points with no less than 27 in every game this season. Arkansas State put up 29.7 points during the regular season, averaging more than 200 rushing yards per game. Cardinals QB Keith Wenning is No. 5 in the nation with 3933 passing yards this season. He also has the luxury of two 1000-yard receivers in Willie Snead and Jordan Williams. Wenning will not only be trying to lead Ball State to its first Division 1 bowl victory in seven tries; it will also be a good opportunity to showcase his arm to NFL scouts.

Though Arkansas State named North Carolina offensive coordinator Blake Anderson its fifth head coach in five seasons, Thompson will try to lead the Red Wolves to a second consecutive bowl victory. Since 2011, the Red Wolves are 27-11. Prior to that, they finished above .500 once since becoming an FBS school in 1992. By giving Anderson a five-year deal with a hefty buyout provision, the school expects him to stick around for more than a season. Adam Kennedy’s decision to transfer from Utah State after last season and finish out his college career at Arkansas State has turned out to be a good one for everyone involved. Kennedy completed 69.4 per cent of his passes for 2349 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season, getting intercepted six times along the way but just twice in the last six games. He gives the Red Wolves another option in the run game as well, rushing for 514 yards and four touchdowns. Arkansas State allowed an average of 26.7 points during the season, and 67 combined during its last two contests.

Confirmed bet

Arkansas State Red Wolves v Ball State Cardinals -7 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (23-20)

Lean

Arkansas State Red Wolves v Ball State Cardinals -65 $1.91 WIN (23-20)

Football (FA Cup round 3) for January 5-6

Nottingham Forest v West Ham United, City Ground, Nottingham, England, Sunday, January 5, 11pm

I spoke yesterday of the pressure on EPL strugglers to focus on their League commitments rather than the FA Cup. It’s a category into which West Ham United certainly fall. The Hammers lie in 19th spot on the table and three points from safety. A trip to EPL aspirants Nottingham Forest couldn’t come at a worse time for Sam Allardyce. They lost 2-1 to fellow strugglers Fulham in their last game, and have gathered just 15 points from their opening 20 matches. He’ll also be without captain Kevin Nolan who starts a four-match ban while Mark Noble (calf) is also sidelined. They join a lengthy list of absentees that will force Allardyce to give game time to up to seven of his youth players. James Tomkins and James Collins (both groin), Winston Reid (ankle), Andy Carroll (heel) and Ricardo Vaz Te (shoulder) are all missing while Mladen Petric has been released after his short-term deal expired.

Nottingham Forest, who lie just six positions below West Ham in a Championship playoff position, will likely be without midfield duo David Vaughan and Djamel Abdoun but Darius Henderson will be available to Billy Davies (pictured) after serving a suspension. Otherwise, Forest have a full squad available. The teams have met five times in the FA Cup. Forest’s victory in a 1991 Semi-final is their only FA Cup success against West Ham. Brian Clough’s side beat the Hammers 4-0 only to lose to Tottenham in the Final. The Hammers have won each of the other four FA Cup meetings between the clubs. They most recently met in the fourth round in 2011, when West Ham won 3-2 at Upton Park. The last two FA Cup meetings between the two have ended in a 3-2 win for West Ham at Upton Park. It’s hard to go past the home side as the Hammers eye EPL survival in the first half of 2014.

Confirmed bets

Nottingham Forest WIN v West Ham United (one unit @ $2.05) WIN (5-0)

Derby County v Chelsea BTS (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (0-2)

Liverpool -2 v Oldham Athletic (one unit @ $1.70) PUSH (2-0)

Leans

Liverpool v Oldham Athletic +3.5 $1.73 LOSE (2-0)
Sunderland v Carlisle United +2.5 $1.62 WIN (3-1)

Derby County (double chance) $2.70 v Chelsea LOSE (0-2)

Manchester United v Swansea City +2.5 $1.70 WIN (1-2)

Port Vale WIN $1.95 v Plymouth Argyle LOSE (2-2)

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