Daily tips for September 1

Racing for September 1

Horse racing: Ballarat (Vic), Mildura (Vic), Moree (NSW), Ballina (NSW), Kalgoorlie (WA), Devonport (Tas), Warwick (Qld). Harness racing: Geelong (Vic), Hobart (Tas). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Sale (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Strathalbyn (SA), Canberra (ACT).

Due to other commitments (a combination of Father’s Day and an overgrown garden), I won’t be posting any racing tips today. I’ll be back in the saddle tomorrow, and will also have some review points from Saturday’s meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill.

AFL (round 23) for September 1

Gold Coast (7-14) v Greater Western Sydney (1-20), Metricon Stadium, Sunday, September 1, 1.10pm AEST

In a marvel of fixturing, somehow the AFL managed to schedule games against the predicted bottom four in the final round of the season. The bookies haven’t made this contest anymore attractive – the Giants looked done and dusted for the season as they coughed up the softest of performances against the Tigers last week. The Suns weren’t much better as they handed the Saints just their fourth win of the season. The home side has to be favoured here as they’re fielding their best possible 22 but neither line holds much interest. Potentially, GWS will turn up the wick for their final game under Kevin Sheedy and should they match their 15-goal average against the Suns, the ‘over’ game total looks the most likely scenario but looking at the Giants’ squad (the most inexperienced they’ve fielded all year), forget the line and take a small swing at the game total ‘over’.

Suggested bet: Game total +200.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (146-63)

Collingwood (14-7) v North Melbourne (9-12), MCG, Sunday, September 1, 3.20pm AEST

North Melbourne’s finals dreams were finally dashed when Carlton defeated Port Adelaide yesterday evening, meaning the top eight is decided and the Roos will finish 2013 with the unwanted tag of best side to miss the finals. The market hasn’t changed dramatically, with Collingwood cut from 12- to eight-point favourites in expectation of lesser commitment from the Kangas. I didn’t expect Collingwood to lose here whether the result mattered to the Roos or not. The Magpies are one of the most form sensitive sides in the competition, and while they’re key numbers have been trending in the right direction, Nathan Buckley still has to rely on too few doing too much. The Roos have generally struggled against the Magpies, and lost the season opener at their preferred Etihad Stadium home. In updated team news, Dayne Beams returns for Luke Ball while North are unchanged.

Suggested bet: Collingwood -8.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +192.5 (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (114-127)

Footscray (7-14) v Melbourne (2-19), Etihad Stadium, Sunday, September 1, 4.40pm AEST

How ironic that the most dramatic season in the history of the AFL/VFL ends with the lamest of dead rubbers. Much has been made of the strides made by the Bulldogs under Brendan McCarthy this season and, almost unbelievably, they’ll finish 8-14! However, the combination of a mega-soft draw and long home run at Etihad were shown up last week by the Brisbane Lions who again exposed the flaws of McCarthy’s game style. But that won’t matter here as Footscray returns to the comfortable surrounds under the roof to tackle one of the worst performed sides in recent memory, who’ve compiled historic inside-50 counts in 2013. Remember, barely two months have passed since the Demons actually beat the Dogs at the MCG but they’ve been abysmal since that day. The line has already crept out to 43.5 but I’m expecting a Bulldogs win by almost 50 points, making this a still playable game.

Suggested bet: Footscray -43.5 (three units @ $1.91)

MLB for August 31/September 1

San Diego (60-74, 24-42 away) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (79-55, 41-28 home), Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, Sunday, September 1, 11.10am

The Dodgers are rolling towards the MLB playoffs but I suspect their season may strike a road hump here. Production at the plate may be important since Dodgers starter Chris Capuano (4-7, 4.74) takes the mound. He's 0-1 with a 6.98 ERA while failing to reach the sixth inning in each of his last four starts. The veteran left-hander was pulled after the fifth again Sunday, giving up three runs and six hits in an 8-1 loss to Boston. Capuano is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four games (two starts) against the Padres this year. However, he was sharp against them June 23, throwing five scoreless innings while not getting a decision in a 3-1 road win. The Padres, losers of six of eight, give the ball to Andrew Cashner (8-8, 3.55), who could use some help if he's going to avoid a fourth straight loss. The right-hander has been backed by three total runs over his last four starts, a big reason he's 0-3 despite a 2.42 ERA in that span. The offence didn't give him any support Sunday while he yielded two hits in seven scoreless innings of a 3-2 win over the Chicago Cubs. Cashner experienced a similar scenario in his only career start against Capuano on June 23, giving up one run in eight innings while also not getting a decision.

Another headache for the Dodgers is Yasiel Puig is one of the biggest contributors to the Los Angeles Dodgers heading towards an NL West title. The Dodgers would prefer he remains on the field. After putting a pair of disciplinary issues behind him, Puig looks to continue pounding on the San Diego Padres in the middle game of this series Saturday night. Puig is a leading contender for the NL Rookie of the Year award and a sensation for the Dodgers (79-55), who are 10 1/2 games ahead of second-place Arizona. His .354 average, 13 homers, 31 RBIs and 53 runs are key reasons Los Angeles is all but assured of returning to the post-season for the first time in four years. Despite his tremendous production, the right fielder has recently found himself in the center of controversy. Puig was benched after four innings of Wednesday's 4-0 win over the Chicago Cubs, failing to break up a double play with a slide and slamming down his bat after striking out. Those on-field incidents came a week after he was fined for arriving late to a game. Adrian Gonzalez, a member of the Padres from 2006-10, has also tormented his former team, hitting .354 with six homers and 18 RBIs over the last 20 games. That includes a .405 average while plating 10 runs in 10 match-ups at Chavez Ravine.

Suggested bet: Game total +7.5 (1.5 unit @ $1.83) LOSE, San Diego Padres +1.5 (2.5 units @ $1.66 WIN (1-2)

Other tips

IL: Angels WIN $2.20 @ Brewers WIN (6-5)
AL: Orioles @ Yankees WIN $1.81 WIN -9 $1.92 WIN (0-2)

AL: Royals @ Blue Jays WIN $1.88 WIN (2-4)
AL: Indians @ Tigers WIN $1.60 WIN (5-10)
AL: White Sox @ Red Sox -1.5 $1.98 WIN (2-7)
AL: Twins +1.5 $1.99 @ Rangers WIN (1-2)
AL: Mariners @ Astros WIN $1.87 LOSE (3-1)
AL: Rays WIN $1.99 LOSE @ Athletics LOSE (1-2)
NL: Phillies @ Cubs +7 $2.00 PUSH (3-4)
NL: Mets WIN $2.65 WIN @ Nationals +7.5 $1.85 WIN (11-3)
NL: Cardinals WIN $2.23 LOSE @ Pirates -7.5 $1.92 LOSE (1-7)
NL: Marlins +1.5 $1.93 @ Braves WIN (4-5)
NL: Reds @ Rockies +10 $1.84 WIN (8-3)
NL: Giants @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.72 WIN (3-4)

NCAAF (week 1) for August 31/September 1

(19) Boise State Broncos @ Washington Huskies, Husky Stadium, Seattle, WA, Sunday, September 1, noon

Washington moves back into its renovated stadium on the shores of Lake Washington with a marquee test to re-open Husky Stadium (pictured above). It’s a rematch of last December’s Las Vegas Bowl when the Broncos built a huge early lead then pulled out a 28-26 victory. Washington wants revenge and not to christen its new stadium with a victory. Broncos coach Chris Petersen expects to encounter a raucous, signal-extinguishing crowd of around 70,000 – and a foe with 20 returning starters trying to make sure what happened in Vegas stays there. No question, Peterson said: The Huskies will employ the same no-huddle offense his own Broncos, ranked No. 19 in The AP pre-season poll, used to great effect to win four consecutive bowl games.

This will be a clash of two quarterbacks who at 2012’s end were on different trajectories. BSU’s Joe Southwick shined, particularly in the Broncos’ final four games when he threw nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Meanwhile, Husky QB Keith Price was picked off at critical moments, including the misfire that sealed the Huskies’ December 22 bowl-game fate against the Broncos. The Broncos are expected to start Bryan Douglas and Deonte Deayon at cornerback, who have a combined four college starts. Meanwhile, the Huskies will counter with standout Kasen Williams, veteran Kevin Smith and possibly freshman John Ross to lead a deep group of receivers.

Suggested bet: Washington -4 (2.5 units @ $1.95) WIN, game total +53 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (6-38)

Other tips

Rice @ Texas A&M +66.5 WIN (31-52)

Louisiana Tech @ NC State +62.5 LOSE (14-40)

Northwestern -5.5 @ California WIN (44-30)

LSU -4.5 WIN @ TCU -49.5 LOSE (36-27)

Wyoming +30 @ Nebraska WIN (34-37)

Penn State -8.5 @ Syracuse LOSE (23-17)

Northern Illinois +3.5 @ Iowa WIN (30-27)

Kentucky @ Western Kentucky +4.5 WIN (26-35)

UL-Monroe @ Oklahoma -21.5 WIN (0-34)

Mississippi State @ Oklahoma State -11 WIN (3-21)

EPL for August 31/September 1

Manchester City v Hull City, Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK, Saturday, August 31, 9.45pm

Manuel Pelligrini (pictured) suffered his first loss as Manchester City boss after they threw away a goal lead and were undone by Premier League newcomers Cardiff City in South Wales last weekend. After looking at their imposing best on the opening weekend against Newcastle, City were left shell-shocked as two set-piece headers from Frazier Campbell secured a 3-1 win for the EPL newcomers. Losing to Cardiff was the first time City have lost a league game before December since 2010. Hull on the other hand were unsurprisingly brushed aside by Chelsea in their opener but showed real Northern grit and resolve to hang on and beat Norwich City 1-0, and that after playing for nearly an hour with 10 men. A Robbie Brady penalty secured the points for the Tigers and these points could be vital come the end of the season for a side expected to be around the foot of the table.

Hull should attempt to ‘park the bus’ for the first half in the early kick-off but are no match for the power and attacking options under Pelligrini’s disposal, and it may take City some time to break the deadlock. With the early kick-offs traditionally slow to get going, the play here looks to be a comfortable City win but perhaps a stalemate until half-time. Manchester City and Hull City have met four times in the Premier League – each club has one win apiece, with two draws. Hull have only won away at Manchester City once in 11 games across all competitions. That was a 2-1 win at Maine Road in the fifth round of the FA Cup in 1930! The victory over Norwich was Hull’s first win in nine top-flight matches (since a 2-0 home win against Fulham in March 2010).

Suggested bet: Manchester City 2+ (three units @ $1.50) WIN, HT/FT double Draw/Manchester City (one unit @ $4.50) WIN (0-0, 2-0)

Other tips

Cardiff City v Everton -2.5 ($1.77) WIN (0-0)

Norwich City v Southampton DRAW ($3.25) LOSE (1-0)

West Ham WIN v Stoke City ($1.92) LOSE (0-1)

Crystal Palace v Sunderland +2.5 ($2.24) WIN (3-1)

 
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Daily tips for August 31

NRL (round 25) for August 31

Manly Sea Eagles v Melbourne Storm, Brookvale Oval, Saturday, August 31, 7.35pm

The greatest rivalry of the past decade continues this Saturday as reigning premiers Melbourne take on Manly in the latest rendition of the ‘Battle of Brookvale’. Games between Manly and Melbourne always seem to create something special. Earlier this year they played out a nail-biting 10-all draw and with them sitting in third and fourth on the NRL ladder on the eve of the finals, you can rest assured they will be out to make a statement. For the Sea Eagles, this is an important game if for no other reason than the fact that they are yet to beat a fellow top-four side in 2013. For all coach Geoff Toovey’s frustrations in the 22-10 loss to South Sydney a fortnight ago, they have now lost two games to the Rabbitohs and two to the Roosters this season to go with their Storm draw and could do with the confidence boost of scoring a win against another title contender.

The Storm are one side that nobody wants to face off against in the finals given their fine pedigree in big games and hot form over the past month. Last week’s 64-4 demolition of Parramatta sent a strong message to the likes of Manly that they are back to their clinical best. Incredibly, it was the second time in four games they had passed 60 after downing Canberra 68-4 in Round 21. The pain of losing five-eighth Gareth Widdop for the season has now eased, with Brett Finch having settled back into his old role, while the hot form of Cameron Smith and Billy Slater has typically returned at the business end of the year. Storm coach Craig Bellamy has made one change, with Tohu Harris back into the squad on the bench and Tim Glasby the 18th man. (Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com)

Suggested bet: Melbourne -1.5 (three units @ $1.74) LOSE (28-8)

AFL (round 23) for August 30

St Kilda (4-17) v Fremantle (16-1-4), Etihad Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 1.45pm AEST

Kudos to those who bet the Saints at +36.5 points when the market opened. They’re now 1.5-point favourites! I can’t remember more changes to a side for a single match than Fremantle, with Michael Johnson, David Mundy, Lee Spurr, Zac Dawson, Hayden Ballantyne and Nat Fyfe rested among 10 ‘outs’ for the Dockers. After enduring a horror run against the Saints, Fremantle has won the past two – coincidentally the same games Ross Lyon has coached against his former club. Last time out, the Saints turned in one of their better showings of 2013 in a five-goal loss at Patersons Stadium. St Kilda will be keen to farewell stalwarts Justin Koschitzke (also celebrating his 200th game along side Adam Schneider) and Stephen Milne with a victory but it’s difficult to make an accurate assessment given the Freo squad that flew east. I’m leaning to a play on the game total ‘over’ with little at stake here.

Suggested bet: Fremantle WIN (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +177.5 (one unit @ $1.90) LOSE (112-41)

Geelong (15-15) v Brisbane Lions (10-11), Simonds Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 2.10pm AEST

It’s been three years since the Lions made the trek down the Princes Freeway to the ‘Cattery’, and they’ll be greeted by familiar conditions with unseasonably warm weather expected across the state this weekend. Back in round 13, the Lions scored one of the upsets of the season when they ran over the top of Geelong at the Gabba in one of the top 10 comebacks in League history. But after the Cats humbled the Swans under lights at Kardinia Park last week, it’s hard to make a case for the Lions who are traveling with a caretaker coach and without spearhead Daniel Merrett. If Port beats Carlton, victory here would deliver the Lions a spot in the finals – a staggering outcome given they were 4-9 less than two months ago. This is still a tricky betting proposition though as Chris Scott may be tempted to rest his key players once victory is assured.

Suggested bet: Game total +185.5 (two units @ $1.90) WIN (112-111)

Port Adelaide (12-9) v Carlton (10-11), AAMI Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 4.40pm AEST

What appears on the surface to be the game of the round is, on paper, a fizzer – Port Adelaide will finish seventh on the ladder regardless of what happens here. But two additional factors come into play – this is the last game to be played at Football Park, and I’m not sure that Ken Hinkley can afford to flirt with the form of his side, who’ve been the surprise packets of 2013 but have lost their past two. The equation is simple for the Blues – win here and they’ll finish eighth. Carlton has regained Andrew Walker, Matthew Kreuzer and Jeff Garlett for the trip to Adelaide. I like Port in this spot – the Blues have a habit of choking in these ‘must-win’ spots and finished last week’s shock loss to the Bombers with disturbingly poor numbers in they key areas. In a fitting farewell to AAMI Stadium, the Power’s midfield will be too quick and their goal-scoring options too plentiful.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide -1.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (103-104)

Essendon (14-7) v Richmond (14-7), MCG, Saturday, August 31, 7.40pm AEST

The tinfoil hat brigade has had a ball deciphering the myriad possibilities here. Do the Bombers come out and make a statement after being booted out of the finals? Are the Essendon players mentally fried after the club’s fate was confirmed? Would the Tigers prefer to play Port Adelaide in the first week of the finals and risk a loss to do so? I think the conspiracy theorists will be sorely disappointed here as both sides will give their all – Essendon to end a horror year on a high note and Richmond to set the tone for their finals campaign. The loss of Jack Riewoldt and Shane Edwards will limit the Tigers’ forward rotations but Damien Hardwick won’t be too concerned given the goal scoring clout added by Aaron Edwards and Ivan Maric. Richmond defeated Essendon in the last round before its most recent finals appearance in 2001, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t win well here.

Suggested bet: Richmond 1-39 (two units @ $2.20) WIN (65-104)

West Coast (9-12) v Adelaide (9-12), Patersons Stadium, Saturday, August 31, 8.10pm AEST

Mathematically, both of these sides remained a chance of playing finals before the first ball is bounced in round 23, but the Crows are the only realistic hope here. Even if Adelaide’s finals dreams have ended by this point of the round, I still favour them to win. The Eagles have only won three games at home this year and in the past fortnight have recorded their lowest ever scores at both Subiaco and the MCG. John Worsfold was already without more than 10 players before Will Schofield was assaulted in Geelong last Saturday night, suffering serious facial injuries. The Crows barely made it out of third gear to score a big win over Melbourne last week and will still be pretty fresh for this. The Eagles pipped the Crows by a goal at AAMI Stadium just two months ago although fixtures between these sides have generally been one-sided and split evenly.

Suggested bet: Adelaide -1.5 (three units @ $1.93) WIN (43-129)

Racing for August 31

You know the Spring Carnival is around the corner when leading racing identities start popping up in the non-racing media. Sure enough, there was Andy Maher on Melbourne radio station SEN during the week introducing his great mate “Kav” – Mark Kavanagh (pictured below with Atlantic Jewel) – having just emerged from another winter’s hibernation. And the first thing he tells the punters is to be wary of unbeaten mare Atlantic Jewel at her comeback. Perhaps he's right, only time will tell, but history shows it is better to listen little to what Kavanagh says about the chances of his runners.

Last Saturday provided more examples of why punters should exercise caution when listening to trainers. In Sydney, second stringers for Chris Waller upstaged more fancied stablemates (Hidden Wonder beating Royal Descent was a great result for the bookies) while Gai Waterhouse criticised anyone who dared to suggest the win by War in the Up & Coming was a form reversal when its stablemate Pitcrew was backed for plenty and could finish only fourth.

That’s before you add in the most inaccurate of all – the media ‘expert’ tipsters who boast when they get it right, especially on SKY and TVN – but say little when they are wrong, which is the vast majority of the time. Try keeping track of one of the experts across the course of meeting and paper betting his or her tips. Even the corporate bookies’ tips on race eve of their ‘best’ and ‘lays’ of the day can prove way off the mark. Surprise, surprise – who benefits the most from your losses?

The More Joyous saga has barely been consigned to history and still punters will consider tips provided by Tom Waterhouse et al. Sure, Tom may have lost money on More Joyous, but his punters lost a stack more. Even if you’re little more than a casual punter, do your own homework and ignore any experts who can’t document consistent, long-term profit. If you lose, then you only have yourself to blame.

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Hawkesbury (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Kilmore (Vic), Armidale (NSW), Carnarvon (WA), Darwin (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Bunbury (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Menangle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Wentworth Park (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Cannington (WA), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Traralgon (Vic).

More and more of the big names expected to dominate the spring return to action today, with the highlight the running of the Group 1 $350,000 NZ Bloodstock Memsie Stakes at Caulfield, preceded by a ridiculously strong edition of the Listed $120,000 Slickpix Stakes. For my best of the day, it’s off to Rosehill Gardens for the Group 3 $125,000 MTA Run To The Rose (race 6) over 1200 metres for three-year-olds at set weights. Peter Snowden has either trained or been assistant trainer to four previous winners in Paratroopers (2005), El Cambio (2007), Desuetude (2008) and Denman (2009), and #1 Sidestep will come into the race at least the equal of those previous winners.

Last season’s G1 Golden Slipper runner up behind Overreach, Sidestep has raced just once since a spell for an eye-catching fourth in the San Domenico Stakes over 1100m here two weeks ago. On that occasion Snowden removed the blinkers and he was all over the shop but beaten just over a length by Va Pensiero. Snowden has elected to refit the blinkers, and with regular rider Kerrin McEvoy back in the saddle Sidestep will present much fitter and be better suited by the increase in distance to 1200m.

Suggested bet: Rosehill R6 #1 Sidestep E/W 1x2 (two units) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Caulfield R3 #1 Fibrillation (E/W) 2nd ($5.10)

Caulfield R4 #1 Miracles of Life (win) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R5 #4 Strawberry Boy (win) LOSE (3rd)

Caulfield R6 #8 It Is Written (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Caulfield R7 #10 Pelicano (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Rosehill R1 #5 Aspen (place) LOSE (U/P)

Rosehill R2 #3 Tenby Lady (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.80)

Rosehill R3 # 3/4/9 Boxed Quinella 9-4 ($6.60)
Rosehill R4 #3 Danas Best (win) 1st ($3.00)

Rosehill R8 #9 Less Is More (E/W) 1st ($4.00/$2.10)

Doomben R3 #1 Mishani Warrior (win) LOSE (3rd)

Doomben R5 #2 Mukaddamah Son (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Doomben R6 #4 Regular (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Doomben R8 #3 Olympic Anthem (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00)

Morphettville R2 #4 Bardem (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Morphettville R4 #1 Little Miss Bourke (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Morphettville R5 #1 Maelstrom (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Morphettville R7 #5 Psychic Mick (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.80)

Belmont R1 #1 It’s A Merc (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.50)

Hawkesbury R4 #6 Ultimate Glory (win) 1st ($2.70)

Hawkesbury R8 #5 The Special Two (win) 1st ($2.00)

Gold Coast R6 #8 Whisky Highway (E/W) SCRATCHED

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R6 #6 McNiven (win) 1st ($1.20)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R9 #1 Rock Pepper (win) 1st ($1.60)

NCAAF (week 1) for August 30-31

AAC: Texas Tech Red Raiders @ SMU Mustangs, Gerald Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX, Saturday, August 31, 10am AEST

Former Texas Tech quarterback Kliff Kingsbury, the youngest coach in any BCS automatic qualifying conference, wants to win his debut as his alma mater visits SMU in a match-up of old Southwest Conference foes. SMU is playing its first game since becoming part of a BCS automatic qualifying conference, the American Athletic. The Red Raiders have won 14 in a row in the series since 1989. These two offences like to throw. SMU is meshing together coach June Jones' run-and-shoot with new offensive coordinator Hal Mumme’s “Air Raid” philosophy. Kingsbury threw for 12,429 yards and 95 touchdowns in 43 games as the Red Raiders quarterback, and last season was the Texas A&M offensive coordinator with Heisman Trophy-winning freshman QB Johnny Manziel. Tech will have one of two true freshmen with expected starter Michael Brewer, also without a collegiate start, dealing with a back issue.

Whoever is at the pivot, they will have some experienced weapons at their disposal in RB Kenny Williams and Eric Ward, Tech’s top rusher and receiver from 2012 respectively. Tight end Jace Amaro, will sit the first half due to a suspension. Jones has his QB returning for Southern Methodist along with some experienced receivers. Garrett Gilbert is back for his fifth collegiate season. The former Texas pivot has his 2-3-4 favourite targets from last season (Jeremy Johnson, Der'rikk Thompson and Keenan Holman) but is working with new faces on the line and in the backfield. The Mustangs have all four DB’s back but will field an entirely new defensive line is on the scene at SMU. It very well could be 100º, or close to it, at kick-off with only a hint of a dusty breeze.

Suggested bet: Texas Tech -4 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +60.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (41-23)

Other tips

Southern @ Houston +60.5 WIN (13-62)

Western Michigan +28 @ Michigan State WIN (13-26)

Samford -7.5 @ Georgia State WIN (31-21)

CFL (week 10) for August 30-31

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-4) @ BC Lions (5-3), BC Place, Vancouver, BC, Saturday, August 31, 12.10pm

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are the hottest team in the CFL, riding a three-game winning streak into their home-and-home series against the BC Lions. Hamilton will try to win four in a row for the first time since 2010 when it visits BC here. Tiger-Cats quarterback Henry Burris leads the league by 423 passing yards, driving an offense that has produced 104 points over the last three games now that its receiving corps is completely healthy. The Hamilton defense recorded its first four interceptions over the last two weeks in a home-and-home series against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Defensive backs Raymond Brown, Dee Webb and Rico Murray and linebacker Jamall Johnson all recorded picks. Johnson also leads the team in tackles with 25. C.J. Gable has taken the role of starting running back since recovering from injury, rushing for 193 yards as part of 344 yards from scrimmage during the winning streak.

The Lions stumbled on the road against the lowly Montreal Alouettes last week, losing 39-38 on a last-second field goal after a miracle pass completion by a backup quarterback. BC’s luck has been much better at BC Place, where it is 4-0 and no opponent has scored more than 22 points in a game. Lions quarterback Travis Lulay has not had a 300-yard passing game in 2013 and is on pace to set a career-high in interceptions with eight, making him the perfect representation of BC’s inefficiencies on offence. BC is tied for the league lead in interceptions with nine. Linebacker Solomon Elimimian is one of three Lions defenders with two interceptions and also leads the team in tackles with 42. Wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux continues to make big catches, with a team-leading 501 yards on only 26 receptions. Running back Andrew Harris leads the team in yards from scrimmage with 816 (534 of which are rushing yards).

Suggested bet: Hamilton WIN (one unit @ $3.05) LOSE, Hamilton +7 (2.5 units @ $1.87) WIN, game total +54 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (26-29)

MLB for August 30-31

Miami Marlins (49-83, 20-44 away) @ Atlanta Braves (81-52, 47-18 home), Turner Field, Atlanta, GA, Saturday, August 31, 9.40am

Jose Fernandez is a major contender for the NL Rookie of the Year Award, giving the Miami Marlins hope for a better future but fellow rookie Julio Teheran is likely focused on a bigger prize for the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. In what’s expected to be one of his final starts of the season, Fernandez attempts to become the first Marlins rookie in 10 years to win six straight decisions when he faces the Braves for the first time. The Marlins (49-83) are all but assured of finishing at the bottom of the East, and have dropped eight of nine after falling 9-0 at Washington on Thursday. Fernandez (10-5, 2.30 ERA), though, is giving them reason for optimism. The 21-year-old phenom has already emerged as Miami’s ace, leading rookies with 165 strikeouts while ranking third among all pitchers in ERA. Fernandez has a 1.33 ERA while winning all five decisions over his last eight starts, striking out 66 in 54 innings.

Like Fernandez, Teheran (10-7, 3.08) is probably also more concerned with his team's success during his stellar rookie season, but the Braves (81-52) are comfortably headed to the post-season and own the best record in baseball. The right-hander is looking to get untracked after allowing four runs and two homers with eight strikeouts and a season-high five walks in a 6-2 loss at St. Louis on Saturday. He had been 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA over his previous six starts. Brian McCann is hitting .344 with five homers and 15 RBIs over his last 17 home meetings with the Marlins, going 8 for 18 with two homers while plating five runs in five games this year. He enters this meeting 7 for 16 with five RBIs in the last four games at Turner Field, with two of those hits leaving the park. That includes a three-run homer in Thursday’s 3-1 win over Cleveland as the Braves’ winning streak reached four games.

Suggested bet: Braves WIN (3.5 units @ $1.76) WIN, game total -6.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (1-2)

Other tips

IL: Angels WIN $1.81 WIN @ Brewers -8 $1.96 WIN (5-0)

AL: Orioles @ Yankees -8.5 $1.96 LOSE (5-8)

AL: Indians @ Tigers WIN $1.69 WIN (2-7)

AL: White Sox WIN $2.45 @ Red Sox LOSE (3-4)

AL: Mariners @ Astros +9 $1.92 LOSE (7-1)

AL: Rays WIN $1.93 LOSE @ Athletics +6.5 $1.91 WIN (3-4)

NL: Phillies @ Cubs WIN $1.74 LOSE +9.5 $1.93 WIN (6-5)

NL: Mets @ Nationals -7.5 $2.11 WIN (3-2)

NL: Cardinals @ Pirates -7 $1.98 WIN (0-5)

NL: Reds WIN $1.77 @ Rockies LOSE (6-9)

NL: Giants @ Diamondbacks WIN $1.81 LOSE -8.5 $1.91 WIN (1-0)

NL: Padres @ Dodgers WIN $1.50 WIN +7 $1.88 WIN (2-9)

 

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for August 30

NRL (round 25) for August 30

Wests Tigers (7-15) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (17-5), Allianz Stadium, Friday, August 30, 7.35pm

In season 2013 the Wests Tigers and South Sydney have endured – and enjoyed – vastly different years. The Wests Tigers, in their first year under coach Mick Potter, have suffered a wretched run as their position on the ladder (14th) reflects. They’ve been through seven- and six-match losing streaks and won just seven matches all season. And now they’re facing a future without their star playmaker Benji Marshall – off to rugby at the end of the season. Thankfully, last week at least showed some hope for the future, with 18-year-old rookie half Luke Brooks delivering a five-star performance in his first game in the top grade. He helped his team to a rare victory (34-18 against the Dragons), a win that ended their most recent string of losses.

For the Rabbitohs, following years of heartache and a close call in last year’s finals series, it appears as though their glory days might have come again. With a team boasting the likes of Greg Inglis, the Burgess brothers, John Sutton, Adam Reynolds and Issac Luke, there’s no reason why the Bunnies can’t go all the way this year. The Rabbitohs have lost just five matches all season – to the Storm (twice), Sharks, Dragons and Cowboys – and were clinical enough in their clash with Canterbury last weekend. Every time the Dogs came within striking distance, the Rabbitohs skipped clear thanks to some brilliant ball-playing and creative, attacking rugby league. However, there looks some value at the line here.

Suggested bet: Wests Tigers +22.5 (two units @ $1.95) WIN (18-32)

AFL (round 23) for August 30

The concept of parity in the AFL is laughable, and nowhere does it manifest more than in the final home and away round. Organisations as large as the NFL or EPL can manage to play all games simultaneously, and it’s theoretically possible in the AFL too, except for an inflexible TV rights deal that means round 23 will still be played on an uneven field. It looms as an equally precarious round for punters, with numerous scenarios and levels of motivation overlaying each game. And thanks to the AFL for resolving the Essendon mess at the latest possible moment – at least the Tigers won’t be finishing ninth this year!

To summarise the “four into one” equation (the Eagles can’t seriously be considered a finals contender), it could be all decided by Saturday night if Carlton beats Port. If the Blues lose, Brisbane would be next in line but they’ll have needed to beat Geelong earlier in the day. The real x-factor is Adelaide – if the Power beat Carlton and the Cats win over the Lions, the Crows will need a sizeable win over the Eagles in Perth while also requiring Collingwood to beat North the next day. However, a Kangaroos victory along with Carlton and Brisbane defeats would propel Brad Scott’s side into the finals. From a punting perspective, watch these situations and the associated market fluctuations carefully as the results come in.

Sydney (15-5) v Hawthorn (18-3), ANZ Stadium, Friday, August 30, 7.50pm AEST

The round 23 betting minefield starts here with the Hawks in a position to have a big say in whether they’d like to face Fremantle or Sydney in the first week of the finals at the MCG. Defeat here would almost certainly mean Hawthorn finished second while victory would mean a rematch against the Swans next week in a qualifying final at the MCG. The Swans were already struggling with injuries before they lost Daniel Hannebery and Rhyce Shaw for this. Hawthorn may be traveling without Cyril Rioli and Brent Guerra but bring back Jordan Lewis and Paul Puopolo. This is the first meeting between last year’s grand finalists at Homebush since 2009, which the Swans won in a shootout. Back in round 7, the Hawks reversed the Grand Final loss with a 37-point victory. With little at stake except the potential for more injuries, I’m not expecting 100 per cent from the Swans.

Suggested bet: Hawthorn 1-39 (one unit @ $3.25), game total +187.5 (two units @ $1.90)

Racing for August 30

Horse racing: Mildura (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Wagga (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Melton (Vic), Newcastle (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Mt Gambier (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

With such a huge day of racing scheduled for tomorrow, I’m going to take a breather today and prepare for the ‘unofficial’ start to the 2013 Spring Racing Carnival. In the meantime, I recently featured some information gathered by Dave Duffield and the team at Champion Picks, relating to the Victoria’s most profitable jockeys and trainers in punting terms. So how do their contemporaries in NSW compare? Based on an overall benchmark for all runners of around -8% profit on turnover, these were the best-performed Sydney metro jockeys: Nash Rawiller (above the benchmark again although a drop-off on the previous season), Glyn Schofield ('blind' profit two straight years is a great achievement), Tommy Berry (the standout metro performer), Kerrin McEvoy (very good season for a much maligned hoop) and Blake Shinn (another good season just like 2011-12). Christian Reith and Corey Brown recorded terrible returns for their followers while Peter Robl went from an under-rated metro jock to over-rated in one season.

Adding Provincial and Country results to the mix, Glyn Schofield (still very much under-rated by the market), Robert Thompson (one of only two of the top 10 who achieved a profit across all runners) and Peter Robl and Christian Reith (performed much better away from the metro area) stood out while Grant Buckley turned in consecutive well below par seasons. In terms of the Sydney Metro Trainer's Premiership, Chris Waller and Joe Pride recorded very good (and much improved) results but John O'Shea, Kris Lees and Anthony Cummings were all below par and less profitable than the previous season. From an overall perspective, the non-metro runners of Kris Lees performed well while Darren Smith and Luke Griffith also made a profit across all runners. Paul Perry was clearly the most over-rated trainer (by the betting market) in the top 10.

NFL pre-season (week 4) for August 29-30

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1), MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ, Friday, August 30, 9am

I don’t have a lot of interest in today’s full slate of NFL pre-season games. The teams who’ve pretty well decided on their final squads will be content to keep their powder dry for the opening week of the regular season. Many of the sides that have yet to decide, have suffered injuries or are just plain bad will be trying everything today. With such varying levels of motivation, more will be learned by watching than betting today. For the desperados, one game has really piqued my interest as the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets will finish up their respective preseason schedules at MetLife Stadium. Philadelphia seems ready to start the regular season after naming Michael Vick as its starting quarterback to run the fast system of new head coach Chip Kelly. On the other sideline, the Jets appear as though they could use another month before the games count, sporting a disaster at the QB position with Mark Sanchez (pictured), Geno Smith and co exchanging deck chairs on the Titanic.

Both teams have been in the headlines this off-season for all the wrong reasons, ranging from Mike Goodson's arrest and Riley Cooper's racism to Jeremy Maclin's torn ACL and Rex Ryan turning his back on the media. Philadelphia is in a very interesting position coming into the season – the team is expected to finish last in the NFC East. In recent years, the Eagles have gone into the year with very high expectations, including two years ago when they had put together the “Dream Team” only to finish 8-8. No team is a bigger mess than New York. Of course, the headlines are all about the QBs, but there are other problems. With Santonio Holmes only recently returning to practice after suffering injury last season, the receiving corps is brutal. Braylon Edwards was released on Monday, leaving only Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley on the roster with any kind of name recognition.

Suggested bet: Eagles -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE, game total +39.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (21-27)

Other games (no other tips)

Colts @ Bengals

Lions @ Bills

Jaguars @ Falcons

Steelers @ Panthers

Redskins @ Bucs

Saints @ Dolphins

Giants @ Patriots

Titans @ Vikings

Ravens @ Rams

Browns @ Bears

Packers @ Chiefs

Texans @ Cowboys

Cardinals @ Broncos

49ers @ Chargers

Raiders @ Seahawks

MLB for August 29-30

Milwaukee Brewers (58-74, 28-39 away) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (77-55, 43-23 home), PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA, Friday, August 30, 9.10am

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a losing record in August, an extended run of mediocrity that finally cost them their grip on first place earlier this week. Gerrit Cole should help them get it back ahead of the team’s most significant series in two decades. After some extra rest, the rookie right-hander looks to pitch the Pirates back into a share of the NL Central lead against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. The Pirates (77-55) moved ahead of St. Louis in the division with a doubleheader sweep of the Cardinals on July 30, and stayed on top until falling one-half game behind on  Monday. That deficit grew to 1 1/2 games with Tuesday’s 7-6 loss to Milwaukee and a St. Louis win, but they bounced back and improved to 12-13 in August with a 7-1 win Wednesday while the Cardinals lost 10-0. After this finale against the Brewers (58-74), Pittsburgh will play six of its next nine against St Louis (starting with three at PNC Park on Friday) as it pursues its first winning record and playoff berth since 1992.

With the Cardinals idle Thursday, Cole (6-6, 3.81 ERA) will get a chance to send the Pirates into their weekend series in a first-place tie. With the former No. 1 overall pick having thrown 146 total innings between Triple-A and the majors (14 more than he did in 2012) the Pirates are being cautious with his workload down the stretch. Aside from being concerned with Cole's health, giving him some extra rest has proven beneficial. Milwaukee counters with Yovani Gallardo (9-9, 4.61), who gets his first look at someone other than Cincinnati since returning from the DL. The right-hander held the Reds scoreless for 6 1/3 innings in a 2-0 win in his first start back on August 17, then gave up three runs over six before the Brewers won 6-4 in Cincinnati on Friday. He's felt plenty comfortable at PNC Park, going 4-2 with a 1.69 ERA in seven career starts. The last time Gallardo saw the Pirates, however, he only lasted four innings while giving up four runs in a 5-4 home loss on May 26.

Suggested bet: Pirates WIN (2.5 units @ $1.62) LOSE, game total -7.5 (1.5 units @ $1.92) WIN (4-0)

Other tips

IL: Indians @ Braves WIN $1.71 WIN -7.5 $1.97 WIN (1-3)

AL: Athletics @ Tigers WIN $1.53 WIN +7.5 $1.91 WIN (6-7)

AL: Royals WIN $1.81 WIN @ Twins -8 $2.05 WIN (3-1)

AL: Angels @ Rays WIN $1.58 LOSE -8.5 $1.88 WIN (2-0)

AL: Orioles WIN $2.32 @ Red Sox WIN (3-2)

AL: Mariners @ Astros WIN $2.30 LOSE +9 $2.00 LOSE (3-2)

NL: Phillies @ Mets WIN $1.91 WIN (3-11)

NL: Marlins +1.5 $1.90 @ Nationals LOSE (0-9)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.