Daily tips for November 29

Note 1: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).

Note 2: There are no NBA games scheduled for today.


A-League (round 8) for November 29

Central Coast Mariners (2-3-1) v Melbourne Victory (3-2-2), Bluetongue Stadium, Gosford, Friday, November 29, 7.30pm

Fans of the round-ball game have been served up some quality fare over the past few weeks on Friday nights, and it’s unlikely the standard will drop as the Central Coast Mariners host the Melbourne Victory to open round 8 of the A-League. In their first home game under new head coach Phil Moss and riding high after a last-gasp win away to Perth Glory, the Mariners welcome a Victory side coming off a convincing 3-0 triumph at home Adelaide despite playing with 10 men for the second half. Victory have plenty of unfinished business at the Bluetongue – they were on the wrong end of a 6-2 thrashing there last season, and their finals challenge ended at the same venue in the semi-finals later in the campaign. A trip to tackle the champions without suspended duo Leigh Broxham and Adrian Leijer will be a major test of Victory's credentials under their own rookie boss Kevin Muscat, who is slowly finding his feet in the top job after the departure of Ange Postecoglou to coach the Socceroos.

Likewise, Phil Moss is attempting to fill big shoes after Graham Arnold (the pair are pictured above) departed Central Coast for a plum job in Japan. He made a strong start in the top job last weekend, altering the Mariners' travel plans and subsequently ending their sequence of negative results in Perth. Moss will also be keen to test the Victory’s road form, as they are yet to win on the road this season, coming from 2-0 down to draw in Adelaide, before suffering successive defeats in the Harbour City to Sydney FC and the Wanderers. All eyes will also be on the Argentine playmaker Marcos Flores, who underwhelmed at Victory after being unveiled to great fanfare prior to the 2012-13 campaign. His ressurgence with the Mariners has been promising enough to date, but it remains to be seen if he can fully recapture the magic that set the league alight during his time with Adelaide in 2010-11. At least Moss is likely to utilise his talents efficiently after Postecoglou insisted on playing his out of position.

Confirmed bet

Central Coast Mariners WIN v Melbourne Victory (one unit @ $2.00) LOSE (0-0)

Leans

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory -2.5 $1.80 WIN (0-0)

Central Coast Mariners v Melbourne Victory (1-0) $6.50 LOSE (0-0)

Racing for November 29

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic – night), Randwick (NSW), Pakenham (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), Naracoorte (SA), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Tamworth (NSW), Burnie (Tas), Ballarat (Vic), Young (NSW), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Confirmed bets

Randwick R3 #1 Perplexity (win) 1st ($2.00)

Pakenham R1 #8 Shattered Dreams (win) 1st ($1.85)

Canberra R6 #5 Back To Zero (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90)

Ipswich R8 #1 Polar Blitz (win) LOSE (3rd)

Leans

Randwick R6 #4 Lucky News (E/W 1x3) 1st ($5.50/$2.00)

Randwick R7 #11 Worldly Impact (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Pakenham R5 #9 Yougopowpow (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Pakenham R7 #5 Little Hero (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.40)

Ipswich R6 #1 I Couldn’t See It (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.40)

Canberra R3 #1 Bonzar (win) 1st ($3.60)

Canberra R7 #3 Miss Expresso (E/W) 1st ($8.60/$2.50)

Naracoorte R3 #2 Hasta La Gorby (win) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R6 #2 Peninsula Dane (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R8 #3 Baluch (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Harness racing tip: Ballarat R9 #5 My Bella Star (win) 1st ($1.70)

Greyhound racing tip: The Gardens R7 #1 White Fin (win) 1st ($1.65)

NHL for November 29

Edmonton Oilers (7-16-2, 16pts) @ Nashville Predators (13-10-2, 28pts), Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN, Friday, November 29, 12.10pm

After a brief burst of glory, the Edmonton Oilers have returned to struggle street with a visit to an improving Nashville on Thanksgiving unlikely to help turn things around. While the Oilers (7-16-2) followed a 1-9-1 stretch with a season-best three straight victories, their woes resumed on Monday in a 5-1 loss to Chicago. Devan Dubnyk allowed the game’s first four goals before getting pulled in favour of Ilya Bryzgalov 5:49 into the second period. The veteran Bryzgalov, who was signed on November 8 and called up from Oklahoma City nine days later, stopped 12 of 13 shots in his Oilers debut. Edmonton ranks 29th in the NHL with a 3.52 goals-against average. He’ll get a chance to build on that showing Thursday in his first start. He is 6-3-1 with a 2.27 GAA and one shutout in his last 10 match-ups against Nashville. Oilers forward Ales Hemsky has notched nine and 12, respectively, during a 21-game stretch versus Nashville.

Bryzgalov could be in for a stiff test against the Predators (12-10-2), who have outscored opponents 21-8 while winning five of six. Two nights after beating Phoenix 4-2, Nashville stayed hot with a 4-0 win at Columbus on Wednesday. Rookie Marek Mazanec made 19 saves for his second shutout in five games while Matt Cullen and Nick Spaling each had a goal and an assist. Ryan Ellis and Gabriel Bourque both added two helpers. The Predators have killed off 16 consecutive chances on the penalty kill dating to November 15 and allowed an NHL-low seven power-play goals since October 12. David Legwand (pictured) tallied his fifth goal and team leading 20th point against the Blue Jackets. Nashville, which is 10-2-1 when he records at least one point, also improved to 11-1-2 when scoring first and 9-0-1 when leading after the opening period. The Preds outscored Edmonton 9-2 in taking both home games last season and are 11-4-0 in the series at home since November 2005.

Confirmed bets

Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators WIN NT (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (3-0)

Vancouver Canucks WIN $1.80 @ Ottawa Senators WIN (5-2)

Leans

Vancouver Canucks @ Ottawa Senators -5.5 (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (5-2)
Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators -1.5 $3.10 +5.5 $2.10 LOSE (3-0)

College Football (week 14) for November 29

SEC: Ole Miss Rebels (7-4, 3-4 SEC) @ Mississippi State (5-6, 2-5 SEC); Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS; Friday, November 29, 11.30am

Rivalry week, the end of the regular season and Thanksgiving – it doesn’t get much bigger for the four schools in action in today’s two College Football games. I think the better value lies in Starkville where the battle for the Egg Bowl returns to Thanksgiving night for the first time in 10 years as Mississippi takes on Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are looking for their fourth victory in the last five meetings with the Rebels, who hold a considerable 61-42-6 edge in the series.  In addition to capturing the Egg Bowl, Mississippi can prevent the Bulldogs from becoming bowl-eligible. Hugh Freeze's team is already assured of a bowl game for the second straight season and is eyeing a .500 record in the SEC. Quarterback Bo Wallace battled flu-like symptoms in a 24-10 loss to Missouri, which is one of four ranked teams to beat the Rebels this season. Freeze was unable to update the condition of the Wallace, who has completed 64.4 per cent of his passes this season for 2908 and 17 touchdowns, but the junior was at practice on Monday.

However, the Bulldogs are in far worse shape. Mississippi State may lack the necessary energy to become bowl eligible, considering it comes off a 24-17 overtime victory over the Arkansas Razorbacks as 2.5-point road favorites last Saturday—a game that followed physical football games against Alabama, Texas A&M and South Carolina. The Bulldogs may also have to play this game without the services of their top two quarterbacks. Damien Williams is expected to start at quarterback after scoring the winning touchdown (and his first ever in College Football) in last week's victory over Arkansas in relief of starter Tyler Russell, who injured his shoulder. Dak Prescott (arm) leads the team in passing and rushing, but won't be available unless the Bulldogs qualify for a bowl for the fourth consecutive season. This will be the 99th consecutive season the teams will meet. Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU loss while the ‘over’ is 5-1 in Mississippi's last six games following an ATS loss. In the other game, Texas should be too strong for a Texas Tech aiming to avoid a fifth straight loss.

Confirmed bets

Ole Miss Rebels -4 @ Mississippi State Bulldogs (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (10-17)

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns +67 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (16-41)

Leans

Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Texas Longhorns -4.5 WIN (16-41)

Ole Miss Rebels @ Mississippi State Bulldogs -53.5 $1.91 WIN (10-17)

NFL (week 13) for November 29

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1, 2-3 away) @ Detroit Lions (6-5, 3-2 home); Ford Field, Detroit, MI; Friday, November 29, 4.30am

The turkey might have been cooked to perfection, but Thanksgiving Day has generally left bad taste in the mouths of Detroit fans. They’ve suffered a nine-game losing skid on the holiday Thursday and have covered only twice during that decade-long drought. But with no Aaron Rodgers to contend with here and Lions fans are as buoyant as ever that the trend will be reversed here. Two of the NFC North’s three five-loss teams go to battle when Matt Flynn (pictured) leads the visiting Green Bay Packers against the Detroit Lions with more than a drumstick at stake. Rodgers has been ruled out for a third straight game after suffering a broken left collarbone on November 4 against Chicago.  The Packers (5-5-1) are 0-3-1 since Rodgers got hurt. Flynn, playing his first game with the Packers since backing up Rodgers from 2008-11, went 21 of 36 for 218 yards and a touchdown in the 26-26 tie with the Vikings last Sunday. Green Bay has averaged 18.0 points in the past four weeks, tied for 25th in the league. Through Week 8, the Packers were third in the league with Rodgers at 30.3 points per game.

A win would vault the Packers past the Lions (6-5), who haven't been able to take advantage of their division foe's misfortune or their own seemingly soft schedule. Detroit lost consecutive games for the first time this year against Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, which have a combined 8-14 record. But both of those teams have won three in a row. The Lions haven’t exactly had the same quarterback of late, either. Matthew Stafford threw at least four interceptions for the first time since November 13, 2011, in Sunday’s 24-21 loss to the Buccaneers. He’d thrown eight in the previous 10 games this season with just one multi-interception game. Accuracy has been an issue as Stafford has completed a league-worst 49.6 per cent of his throws this month in three games after connecting on 62.4 per cent through Week 8. The off day against the Bucs came despite the return of one of Stafford’s top targets, Nate Burleson. The Lions’ No. 2 wide receiver had seven catches on 10 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown in his first game since September 22 after breaking his left arm in a car accident.

Confirmed bets

Green Bay Packers +6 @ Detroit Lions (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (10-40)

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ Baltimore Ravens (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-22)

Leans

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions -51 $1.91 WIN (10-40)

Oakland Raiders +11.5 $1.91 WIN @ Dallas Cowboys +47.5 $1.91 WIN (24-31)

Football (Europa League matchday 5) for November 29

Group D: Wigan Athletic (1-2-1) v SV Zulte Waregem (1-1-2), DW Stadium, Wigan, England, Friday, November 29, 7.10am

Things start to get a little trickier in Matchday 5 of the UEFA Europe League. The battle for top two positions in some of the 12 groups has already been decided while time differences across the continent mean a handful of games could be dead rubbers by the time of kick-off in Western Europe. A good example is in Group A, where Swansea and Valencia will have cemented the top two spots if Kuban Krasnodar defeats St Gallen. In contrast, only Russian side Rubin Kazan is assured of qualification from Group D with Wigan Athletic (England), SV Zulte Waregem (Belgium) and NK Maribor (Slovenia) all in contention for the second spot. That makes the clash between Wigan and Zulte Waregem all the more important. Wigan goalkeeper Lee Nicholls will keep his place as Scott Carson continues to recover from an ankle injury. Latics defender Juan Carlos Garcia strained his ankle on international duty and is out for six weeks.

Wigan met Zulte Waregem in what was their very first European fixture on Matchday 1. On a wet night in Belgium on Latics’ European debut the two sides fought out a competitive goalless draw. Zulte Waregem currently sit second in their domestic league behind Standard Liege, and are in good form with only one defeat in their last 10 league games. They’re also the second highest scorers in the league with 34 goals in 16 games (an average of more than two goals per game). Thorgan Hazard (pictured), the younger brother of Chelsea winger Eden, is part of the Zulte Waregem squad. The 20-year-old, who is on loan from Stamford Bridge, has scored nine goals in 16 games for the Belgian side this season. No Belgian side has recorded a European victory against an English team in the past nine attempts. More ominously perhaps for Waregem – no Belgian side has beaten an English team away in the last 29 attempts.

Confirmed bets

Wigan Athletic v SV Zulte-Waregem – double chance (two units @ $1.83) WIN (1-2)

FC Rubin Kazan (to nil) v NK Maribor (one unit @ $2.10) LOSE (1-1)

Tromsø IL v Tottenham Hotspur -1 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (0-2)

Ludogorets Razgard (double chance) v PSV Eindhoven (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (2-0)
Chornomorets Odesa WIN v Dinamo Zagreb (one unit @ $1.67) WIN (2-1)

Leans

FC Kuban Krasnodar WIN $1.95 v FC St Gallen WIN (4-0)

Paços Ferreira v Fiorentina WIN $1.60 LOSE (0-0) 

FC Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk v CS Pandurii Târgu Jiu +2.5 $1.80 WIN (4-1) 

Girondins de Bordeaux WIN $2.60 v Eintracht Frankfurt LOSE (0-1)

KRC Genk v FC Dynamo Kyiv WIN $2.15 LOSE (3-1)

Sevilla FC -1 $1.75 v Estoril Praia LOSE (1-1)

Olympique Lyonnais WIN $1.85 v Real Betis WIN (1-0)

Trabzonspor AS -1 $2.15 v Apollon Limassol FC WIN (4-2)

Legia Warszawa v SS Lazio WIN $1.85 WIN (0-2)

FC Shakhter Karagandy v PAOK Salonika WIN $1.83 WIN (0-2)

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Daily tips for November 28

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 28

Horse racing: Seymour (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Albany (WA). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Penrith (NSW). Greyhound racing: Dubbo (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Warrnambool (Vic), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Maitland (NSW), Sandown Park (Vic), Warragul (Vic), Mandurah (WA), Traralgon (Vic).

We’re off to Wyong on the NSW Central Coast where the temperature is a warm 30º for today’s eight-race card on a dead (4). My best of the day comes up in race 4, the Rinnai Australia Maiden Handicap over 1600 metres. #1 Hot Albert has been unlucky to run into some handy gallopers in his career to date and Chris Waller has taken him to Wyong for a confidence booster. Although still a maiden after six starts, a quick glance of his form shows runs behind the likes of Eurozone, Suit, Arabian Gold and Stamina. His last-start third also looks strong now with the second-placed Artistic Lad since bolting in by 6.3 lengths. First there was sharp filly Papillon Rouge. He’ll stride along out the back from the wide draw but will be within striking distance given the small field. Looks the race to break the duck.

Confirmed bets

Seymour R8 #6 Marks Matilda (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Wyong R4 #1 Hot Albert (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Leans

Seymour R1 #1 Hotel Sierra (win) 1st ($1.30)

Seymour R3 #1 Bernicatti (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.20/$1.60)

Wyong R1 #1 Maddhal (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.80)

Wyong R7 #1 Crown Of Ascot (E/W) 1st ($6.30/$2.00)

Rockhampton R1 #1 Razandies Jester (E/W 1x2) 1st ($6.60/$2.90)

Rockhampton R5 #3 Vandalised (win) 1st ($2.10)

Harness racing tip: Penrith R3 #1 Long Road To Fame (win) 1st ($1.40)

Greyhound racing tip: Dapto R5 #4 Lachlan Bomber (win) 1st ($2.20)

NHL for November 28

Toronto Maple Leafs (14-9-1, 29pts) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (15-9-1, 31pts), CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA, Thursday, November 28, 11.40am

I was genuinely surprised to see the Penguins open $1.50 favourites here. Toronto trails Pittsburgh by just points and the hosts have a hefty injury list with which to deal. Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and James Neal are providing plenty of offense for the Pittsburgh Penguins, but the team’s overall play over the last two games has left something to be desired. Pittsburgh looks to avoid a third straight defeat here. Crosby’s goal with 0.3 seconds remaining in regulation Monday forced overtime, but the Penguins (15-9-1) eventually fell 4-3 to Boston. Neal had two goals for the second straight contest and Evgeni Malkin had an assist to give him eight along with a goal during a five-game point streak. Crosby has a goal in four of the last five, including one in each contest during Pittsburgh's three-game winning streak prior to the current skid. Neal has five goals and four assists during a four-game streak of recording multiple points. Pittsburgh forward Tanner Glass is expected to miss three to four weeks with a broken hand, while defenseman Paul Martin will miss this game with a lower-body injury.

The Maple Leafs have some issues of their own. Goaltender James Reimer (pictured) didn't have much to say after allowing each goal on 21 shots in Monday's 6-0 loss to Columbus, as the Maple Leafs (14-9-1) fell for the second time in three games. Reimer entered that contest 6-2-0 with a 2.10 goals-against average and an NHL-best .947 save percentage. Toronto allowed its most goals of the season, and its 18 shots were its second-fewest. Phil Kessel has three goals and no assists over his last 11 games, while Nazem Kadri had his three-game point streak snapped Monday. Kessel had a goal and an assist, Kadri scored and James van Riemsdyk had two assists in Toronto’s 4-1 victory over Pittsburgh on October 26. Reimer made 37 saves in that contest, though it's unclear if he or Jonathan Bernier will get start here. Maple Leafs forward Joffrey Lupul suffered a groin injury on Monday, and his status for this contest is unclear. BTW, Marc-Andre Fleury, whose seven goals allowed over the last two games match the total from his previous five, could be in net for the Penguins.

Confirmed bets

Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (two units @ $1.57) WIN (5-6)

Ottawa Senators @ Washington Capitals +5.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (6-4)

Chicago Blackhawks @ Calgary Flames +5.5 (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (2-3)

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks -5 (one unit @ $1.77) PUSH (2-3)

Leans

Winnipeg Jets @ New York Islanders +5.5 $1.91 LOSE (3-2)

Nashville Predators WIN $1.95 @ Columbus Blue Jackets WIN (4-0)

Montréal Canadiens WIN NT $2.00 @ Buffalo Sabres WIN (3-1)

Carolina Hurricanes WIN $2.13 @ New Jersey Devils WIN (4-3)

New York Rangers @ Florida Panthers +5 $2.10 WIN (5-2)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Tampa Bay Lightning -5.5 $1.93 LOSE (2-4)

Phoenix Coyotes WIN $2.05 @ Minnesota Wild WIN (3-2)

St Louis Blues WIN $1.83 @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (4-1)

Boston Bruins WIN $1.87 @ Detroit Red Wings LOSE (1-6)

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks WIN $1.62 WIN (2-3)


NBA for November 28

San Antonio Spurs (13-1, 6-1 away) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (9-3, 6-0 home), Chesapeake Energy Arena (pictured), Oklahoma City, OK, Thursday, November 28, 12.10pm

The battle between two title contenders highlights a huge day of NBA action. The San Antonio Spurs have won 11 consecutive games and can set a franchise record for best start to a season if they can beat the host Oklahoma City Thunder. San Antonio also started 13-1 in 2010-11 before losing its 15th game. They’re outscoring opponents by 12 points per game and rank second in the NBA in scoring defense (90.1). San Antonio has posted seven double-digit victories during the 11-game winning streak, giving veterans like Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Parker plenty of opportunities to stay fresh. All the starters played 25 minutes or less in Monday’s 112-93 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. San Antonio center Tiago Splitter (ankle) is probable after missing the second half of the victory over New Orleans. San Antonio is 6-1 on the road with the only loss coming against the Portland Trail Blazers on November 2. Spurs are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City. The teams split four meetings last season with the home team winning each game.

Oklahoma City has won four consecutive games and is undefeated in six home contests. The Thunder are off to their best home start since relocating to Oklahoma City and the last better season-opening home stretch for the franchise was when the Seattle SuperSonics won nine straight in 2004-05. Point guard Russell Westbrook will be well-rested for the match-up with San Antonio’s Tony Parker after sitting out Sunday’s win over the Utah Jazz. Westbrook has had five full days of rest for his surgically repaired knee since he last played in Thursday’s victory over the Los Angeles Clippers. The Thunder saw the scheduling quirk – and a game against the lowly Jazz – as an ideal time to give the knee a break after Westbrook played 30 or more minutes in nine straight games since his return. He is averaging 21.6 points and 5.1 assists and has scored 20 or more points six times. Kevin Durant averaged 23.3 points against the Spurs last season with his outputs ranging from 19 to 26 points. The home team and favourite is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Confirmed bets

San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (88-94)

Indiana Pacers -7.5 @ Charlotte Bobcats (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (99-74)

Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons -3 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (99-79)

Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks -190 NT (one unit @ $1.90) WIN (87-87)

Leans

Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Bobcats -181 $1.91 WIN (99-74)

Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics -182 $1.91 LOSE (100-93)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Brooklyn Nets -200 $1.91 WIN (99-94)

Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers 1H +5 $1.91 LOSE (49-42)

Denver Nuggets +7 @ Minnesota Timberwolves $1.91 WIN (117-110)

Atlanta Hawks +9 $1.91 @ Houston Rockets LOSE (84-113)

Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic -208 $1.91 WIN (94-105)
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks -5 $1.91 LOSE (99-103)

New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Clippers -9.5 $1.91 WIN (80-93)

Portland Trail Blazers -3.5 $1.91 @ Phoenix Suns LOSE (106-120)

Golf for November 28-December 1

The Emirates Australian Open, Royal Sydney Golf Club, November 28-December 1

The Royal Sydney Championship Course (pictured) plays host to the Australian Open for the first time in five years where 2013 Masters’ champion Adam Scott will aim to follow in Robert Allenby’s footsteps and become just the second man ever to win the Triple Crown of the Australian PGA, Australian Masters and Australian Open. Scott is undeniably the star player in this field but there’s value in taking him on at $3.60 as his form appears to have been tapering in the past fortnight. Likewise, I think it’s unlikely that Jason Day prevails here. He’s been on an emotional roller coaster having led Australia to victory in the World Cup at Royal Melbourne last week while mourning the loss of several relatives after Typhoon Haiyan swept through the Phillipines earlier this month.

Leading my list of contenders is 2006 US Open champion Geoff Ogilvy, who found a return to form with his return to Australia when finishing 67-69 for seventh in the Talisker Masters. That weekend display caught the eye for many reasons – he bettered Adam Scott across the same 36 holes and was just half a shot down on runner-up Matt Kuchar in terms of scoring average. More relevant is the fact that those rounds came after a switch in putter, which saw Ogilvy (once one of the most deadly operators on the green) find some confidence. It’s not lacking in his long game, with the former US Open champion claiming he’s “hitting the ball well enough to contend anywhere”. He is an outspoken champion of classic course design and Royal Sydney is one of Australia's finest examples.

While Ogilvy’s old adversary Allenby must be considered on a course that rewards the former’s exceptional driving, it’s Aaron Baddeley who is worth adding to the slip. Baddeley has endured a disappointing year or so, failing to build on his win at Riviera on the PGA Tour back in 2011. However, recent signs have been somewhat encouraging with a fifth in the CIMB Classic due reward for the work he’s been doing with coach Grant Waite. Back in 1999, Baddeley won the Australian Open at Royal Sydney while still an amateur, showing poise beyond his years. To prove that was no fluke, Baddeley returned to the course in 2006 and finished ninth despite an opening 75, producing a weekend score bettered only by the eventual first and second.

I’m keen to add John Senden to the list of contenders. The Queenslander is in good form, having finished in a tie for fourth in the US PGA tour McGladrey Classic at Sea Island, Georgia three weeks ago. He won the Australian Open on this course in 2006 and has finished in the top 10 on six of his last eight homeland appearances; twice as runner-up and never worse than 18th. That makes him a standout bet in the top-10 market. I’m also leaning to Matt Jones and Greg Chalmers based on their recent form in the US while Matt Goggin was runner-up at Royal Sydney five years ago and showed enough in Melbourne to suggest he could be among the front-runners here.

Confirmed bets

Geoff Ogilvy WIN (0.25 units @ $26)

Geoff Ogilvy – top 10 (1.75 units @ $2.75)

Aaron Baddeley – top 10 (one unit @ $2.75)

Leans

John Senden (top 10) $2.75

Matt Jones (top 10) $3.25

Greg Chalmers (top 10) $3.25

Matt Goggin (top 10) $4.00

Note: I'll be adding regular previews of PGA and European Tour events to the blog in 2014.

Football (UCL matchday 5) for November 28

Group D: CSKA Moscow (1-0-3) v FC Bayern Munich (4-0-0), Arena Khimki, Russia, Thursday, November 28, 4am

Bayern Munich are through to the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League and have injuries, snow and a much-improved CSKA Moscow side to contend with at Arena Khimki (pictured). Bayern have a perfect record in the group and will hope to continue that form here, as a win will secure top spot. CSKA are most likely playing for a Europa League spot bar an unlikely Manchester City implosion. Bayern dominated Dortmund last weekend for a 3-0 win and they’re favoured to take another three points here despite the absence of Franck Ribéry, Mario Mandžukić, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Xherdan Shaqiri, Claudio Pizarro, Diego Contento and Holger Badstube. Bayern can establish a UEFA Champions League record of 10 consecutive victories by beating CSKA, having equalled FC Barcelona’s 2002-03 feat of nine in a row when defeating Viktoria Plzeň last time out. Bayern have conceded just once in Group D, and have the best defensive record in the competition. Fringe players or not the personnel on the field for Bayern are still top quality.

CSKA Moscow haven’t impressed in this tough group with a tight win over the whipping boys Viktoria Plzeň their only success. Last time out in the tournament they were walloped 5-2 by Manchester City at the Etihad. CSKA have conceded at least two goals in each of their four Group D matches and have not kept a clean sheet in eight UEFA Champions League games, since a 0-0 draw at Trabzonspor AŞ on November 2, 2011. The Russian side are much improved since the clubs’ September meeting, surging up their domestic table with 20 points from their opening eight Premier Liga fixtures, their best start to a campaign this century. Seydou Doumbia scored the only goal at home to FC Spartak Moskva on Saturday, his seventh strike in five outings but Alan Dzagoev and Aleksandrs Cauņa will both miss here. Japanese striker Keisuke Honda is also in good form after scoring for his nation in recent international friendlies against Holland and Belgium. However, I expect Bayern to methodically eke out a win despite the conditions on offer here.

Confirmed bets

CSKA Moscow v Bayern Munich – to nil (one unit @ $2.45) LOSE (1-3)
Manchester City v Viktoria Plzeň +3.5 (one unit @ $1.96) WIN (4-2)

Real Madrid -1 v Galatasaray (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (4-1)

Shakhtar Donetsk WIN v Real Sociedad (one unit @ $1.67) WIN (4-0)

Leans

CSKA Moscow v Bayern Munich -2.5 $2.15 LOSE (1-3)

Anderlecht v Benfica WIN $2.05 WIN (2-3)

Juventus -2 $2.00 v FC Copenhagen WIN (3-1)

Bayer Leverkusen v Manchester United +2.5 $1.95 WIN (0-5)

Manchester City -2 $1.94 v Viktoria Plzen WIN (4-2)

Paris St Germain -1 $1.97 v Olympiakos WIN (2-1)

Real Madrid v Galatasaray +3.5 $1.99 WIN (4-1)

Grand Salami +23.5 $1.80 WIN (36)

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