Daily tips for September 28

NRL (week 3 finals) for September 28

Preliminary Final: Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights, Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Saturday, September 28, 7.45pm

This grand final qualifier between the Roosters and Knights shapes as a seriously intriguing match-up – as unlikely as it would have seemed as recently as a fortnight ago. The Knights were not heavily favoured to make it past the opening week of the finals, travelling down to Sydney for a sudden-death elimination final against a strong Bulldogs outfit. Instead they produced one of the most complete performances of any side so far in this year’s final series, and the lone 13-plus win of the six games so far. They then one better with a gutsy, resilient 80-minute effort to upset the Storm in Melbourne. As much as they weren’t widely tipped to go this far, it’s impossible to argue the Knights don’t deserve to be one of the final four teams left alive based on their recent performances. They were almost struck a mortal blow in the shadows of full-time last week though, when halfback Tyrone Roberts stepped off his right foot and crumpled to the turf clutching his right knee in agony. Concerns over a ruptured ACL were abated when Roberts was eventually able to return to his feet, stretch his leg out and finish the game.

The Roosters will return to the fray well rested, one would think, and it was a timely week off given the physical nature of the Manly clash. One of the lowest-scoring NRL games in recent memory certainly wasn’t lacking for excitement as both courageous defence and some sloppy handling while on the attack from both sides led to a tense dogfight. The week off means coach Trent Robinson has little to worry about on the injury front. The notable change is the return from suspension of prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (pictured), who pushes Luke O’Donnell back to a six-man bench that also sees the addition of Isaac Liu. This game will come down to talent. Even though the Knights can match the Roosters in speed and size, roosters have too much star power and talent in their squad characterised by Sonny Bill Williams, James Maloney, Michael Jennings and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. The Knights will be determined and inspired but I cannot see them pulling off another upset especially on the Roosters’ home paddock. However, they’ll throw everything at the Roosters and should keep the margin respectable.

Suggested bet: Roosters 1-12 (1.5 units @ $2.90)

Racing for September 28

Today’s highlights

Rosehill R2 G2 $250,000 Stan Fox Stakes (1500m) 

Rosehill R3 G3 $125,000 TAB Colin Stephen Quality (2400m) 

Rosehill R5 G3 $250,000 Golden Pendant (1400m) 

Rosehill R6 G3 $200,000 PJ'S Irish Pub Parramatta Gloaming Stakes (1800m) 

Rosehill R7 G2 $175,000 Ascend Sales Trophies Shannon Stakes (1500m) 

Mornington R6 Listed $125,000 RM Ansett Classic (2415m)

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic), Rosehill (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Bowraville (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Menangle (NSW), Mildura (Vic), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA).

A huge weekend of racing continues today after last night’s Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley, won impressively by Samaready. All eyes will be on Rosehill Gardens today for the running of the Stan Fox Stakes – just one of five Group races on the eight-race card. My best of the day will jump from barrier 4 in the TAB Colin Stephen Quality over 2400 metres (race 3). Trained by Gai Waterhouse with Nash Rawiller in the saddle, the 7yo Irish gelding #1 Julienas is fourth-up here. He ran some of the fastest final splits of the meeting last start in the Kingston Town and held a strong effort over the final 500m of the race.  He was beaten by Wazn in the Wyong Cup two starts back but, up in distance here, should turn the tables.

Suggested bet: Rosehill R3 #1 Julienas WIN (two units) 1st ($2.40)

Other tips

Rosehill R1 #1 Ecuador (win) LOSE (2nd)
Rosehill R2 #3 Eurozone (win) 1st ($3.40)
Rosehill R4 #5 Kirramosa (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Rosehill R5 #2 Red Tracer (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.30)
Rosehill R6 #4 Drago (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)
Rosehill R7 #8 Your Honour (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Rosehill R8 #2 Heart Testa (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.10/$1.60)
Mornington R1 #6 Lucky Striker (E/W) 1st ($7.30/$2.10)
Mornington R2 #11 Hannaford (E/W) 1st ($4.60/$1.90)
Mornington R4 #17 Red Samurai (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)
Mornington R5 #8 Wrotham Heath (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Mornington R6 #4 Surpass (win) LOSE (2nd)
Eagle Farm R3 #10 Qfighter (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60)
Eagle Farm R5 #6 Show Us A Smile (win) LOSE (U/P)
Eagle Farm R6 #5 Tornado Miss (E/W) 1st ($6.30/$2.20)
Eagle Farm R8 #10 Magic In Motion (E/W 1x3)
Morphettville R1 #1 Red Magnet (win) 1st ($1.40)
Morphettville R4 #5 Sandhill Jett (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Morphettville R8 #2 Spirit Of Endeavour (E/W 1x4) LOSE (U/P)
Newcastle R5 #5 Busselton (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Harness racing tip: Mildura R3 #5 Glasscutterspirit (win)
Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R8 #6 Lucy Wires (win)

AFL Grand Final for September 28

Grand Final: Hawthorn (19-3) v Fremantle (16-1-5), MCG, Saturday, September 28, 2.30pm AEST – odds: Hawthorn (9-13 ATS, 1-1 finals ATS) $1.60, Fremantle (13-9 ATS, 2-0 finals ATS) $2.40; line 8.5 ->9.5->7.5; game total line 168.5->166.5. Note: this is an updated version of the preview posted earlier this week, including suggested bets.

AFL coaches try to keep things as normal as possible in Grand Final week, and it’s mantra that could equally apply to betting on the big game. Just because it’s the final game of the year, you don’t need to bet just for the sake of betting. Sure, there’s added pressure combined with an atypical lead-up to the game but, once the ball is bounced, it’s still a game of AFL football played over four quarters. Much has been made of the “revenge” factor for Hawthorn after losing to the Swans last year (it was another good week to not follow the mainstream media as every minor detail was blown wildly out of proportion). Just like any other week of the season, I’m looking for value and reckon there’s plenty on offer here – I’ll be siding strongly with the Fremantle Dockers to claim their first AFL premiership.

First, the nuts and bolts – the Hawks have dominated the Dockers recently, winning the past four clashes between the teams and seven of the last eight, including three wins by more than 50 points. Overall, Hawthorn holds a 20-7 head-to-head advantage. The Hawks are aiming for their 11th VFL/AFL premiership, in their 17th Grand Final. The Hawks have won four of their last five Grand Finals dating back to 1988, and have reached consecutive premiership deciders for the first time since 1988. Fremantle will be playing in the first Grand Final of its 19-year history. Hawthorn and Fremantle have met only once before at the MCG, in round 11, 2011. The Hawks won that match by 22 points. There are 23 Hawks-listed players who have played in at least one Grand Final, with 10 having played in two or more. The Dockers have only two players who have played in a Grand Final: Dawson, who played in three with St Kilda, and Danyle Pearce, who played in Port Adelaide’s 2007 loss. Both coaches will be coaching in their third Grand Final.

This year’s Grand Final confirms that an AFL premiership season is actually composed of several segments. Virtually all of my season systems indicate a Hawthorn victory at the current price of $1.65. But using the last four weeks of the home and away season plus the finals, my price is almost the opposite. It’s interesting to note the numbers were almost identical in 2012 when Sydney defeated the Hawks. Based on the complete season’s stats, the Swans’ win rated the second biggest GF upset post-WWII. A Freo win would surpass that record (2008 ranks as the greatest upset in that period). But on those all-important late-season numbers, the game is Fremantle’s to lose. Also importantly, this marks the fifth time in modern AFL history that the competition’s highest ranked attack has clashed against the League’s top rated defence. The record reads 5-0 in favour of the top defence.

Fremantle will have several obstacles to overcome on Saturday but a rare trip to the MCG isn’t the hurdle that many punters anticipate. The Dockers have a much improved record at the ‘G’ over the past two years with a record of 3-2 in their past five visits compared to their all-time tally of just 12 wins from 41 visits. They’ve also managed a finals win (over Geelong in 2012) and smashed the Demons on their most recent trip to the ground by 95 points. The Dockers have already mounted a strong case that they can win, as coach Ross Lyon repeats, “any time, anywhere”, as underlined by their qualifying final victory over Geelong at Simonds Stadium, where the Cats had previously won 42 of their previous 43.

This will be the 12th time since the competition went national that a Victorian team has faced off against an interstate club in the Grand Final. The record is 8-3 in favour of the non-Victorian clubs. The impact of the hometown crowd is minimised on Grand Final day. With a high level of corporate sales and the ready access for members and supporters of interstate clubs to purchase tickets, the Victorian club doesn’t have anywhere near the support it would expect in a home and away match. Fremantle and Hawthorn have members’ allocations of only about 14,000 seats each. AFL and MCC members, meanwhile, account for about 50,000, with the rest going to corporate allocations and AFL life members. Making their first GF appearance, I’m expecting plenty of neutrals to ride the Purple Wave.

The other factor that skews the heads-to-head record between these sides is the scheduling of most Hawthorn home games against Fremantle at Aurora Stadium in Launceston – a venue at which the Hawks have a 29-11 record. In the past 17 years, the team that finished on top of the ladder has gone on to claim the premiership on just five occasions – a trend the Hawks couldn’t defy last year, and will be attempting to this time around. The last four times the best defence from the home-and-away season was matched up with the best attack in a grand final, the defensive unit has held sway by an average of seven goals. And in each of those games, it was non-Victorian sides beating Victorian sides.

The key to beating Hawthorn is being able to shut down their time and space, pressuring the ball carrier and allowing them as few uncontested marks as possible. Fremantle are fanatical in each of these areas, and won’t allow the Hawks the freedom of playing the game on their own terms. Aaron Sandilands has returned from injury in excellent form, and will allow the likes of Michael Barlow, David Mundy and Nat Fyfe first use of the ball. Sam Mitchell is the key prime mover for the Hawks, a fact that had apparently escaped Chris Scott and the Geelong players on Friday night. The amount of space he was given at stoppages and around the ground was criminal, a luxury he won’t be afforded this Saturday. He is so important to Hawthorn’s fortunes that if Ryan Crowley, who must surely get the job, can limit his influence, it will be the decisive factor in guaranteeing Fremantle’s victory.

Hawthorn has the best forward line in the league, led by the height and versatility of Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and David Hale. The Dockers are well equipped to handle them though, with Luke McPharlin, Michael Johnson and Zac Dawson the best trio of tall defenders around. Fremantle have an array of forward options, led by Matthew Pavlich and Chris Mayne and complemented by Michael Walters and Hayden Ballantyne. Their midfielders are also constantly hitting the scoreboard. Mayne laid 13 tackles against the Swans, followed by Ballantyne (8). When the forwards apply that much pressure, it’s difficult for backmen to remain poised and to deliver with composure. If the Hawks break down in this area, they won’t be able to overcome the Dockers.

This Fremantle line-up bats deeper than St Kilda did under Ross Lyon in their grand final years of 2009-10, yet Hawthorn are probably not the equal of the victorious Geelong and Collingwood in those seasons. Lyon was able to push two great teams and almost pinch a flag or two, but the talent-to-talent equation is arguably more favourable for him this time. There was only one change to either side with Jonathan Simpkin named for the Hawks in place of the injured Brendan Whitecross. Aside from sore bodies, neither coach is taking a chance with a vastly underdone player. Weather could play a minor role if forecast rain rolls in tonight and tomorrow morning. The MCG surface drains well but the grass is particularly slippery, meaning more stoppages and turnovers are likely. After opening at 8.5 points, the line is into 7.5 points and I recommend betting sooner rather than later as the sharp money could reduce the line as low as six points. Enjoy the game!

Suggested bets

Fremantle +7.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (77-62)

Game total -166.5 (2.75 units @ $1.90) WIN

David Mundy (Norm Smith, 0.5 units @ $12) LOSE

Matthew Pavlich (Norm Smith, 0.5 units @ $12) LOSE

Draw (0.25 units @ $26) LOSE

MLB for September 28

AL: Tampa Bay Rays (90-69, 39-39) @ Toronto Blue Jays (72-87, 38-40 home), Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON, Saturday, September 28, 9.05am

I’ve been riding the red-hot Rays in their wild-card pursuit and see no reason to leave the bandwagon here as the AL wild card-leading Tampa Bay continue to inch closer to locking up a playoff spot. The Toronto Blue Jays’ R.A. Dickey, meanwhile, is set to conclude what's been a disappointing year. Seeking a season high-tying eighth consecutive win, the visiting Rays have a chance to clinch in the first of three against the Blue Jays. Evan Longoria (pictured) stayed hot with two hits and three RBIs and Delmon Young hit a home run as Tampa Bay (90-69) swept the New York Yankees with Thursday's 4-0 road win. The Rays, who have outscored opponents 37-13 during their winning streak, lowered their magic number for securing a wild-card berth to two. They can clinch with a win and a Texas loss to the Los Angeles Angels. Tampa Bay has now posted four consecutive 90-win seasons for the first time in franchise history. The Rays now turn their attention to Dickey (13-13, 4.27 ERA), who hasn't lived up to expectations in his first season with the Blue Jays.

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, who had gone 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his previous five outings, struck out a season-high 11 and went the distance in Sunday's 5-2 loss at Boston. Dickey surrendered his 32nd and 33rd homers, the second-most in the majors. Dickey is 3-1 with a 2.40 ERA in six match-ups against the Rays since last year. Tampa Bay counters with Jeremy Hellickson (12-9, 5.16), who threw 2 1/3 scoreless innings of relief and earned the win last Friday in a 5-4, 18-inning victory over Baltimore. The right-hander, though, was hit hard in his last start, surrendering five runs before exiting with two outs in the third inning of a 7-1 loss to Texas on Sept. 17. His ERA ranks third highest in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. Hellickson is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA during a six-start stretch versus Toronto. Brett Lawrie is 1 for 19 in their match-ups. Tampa Bay has won 24 of 33 against Toronto.

Suggested bet: Tampa Bay WIN (1.5 units @ $1.78) LOSE, game total +8 (2.5 units @ $2.02) WIN (3-6)

Other tips

IL: Tigers* WIN $1.69 LOSE @ Marlins -7.5 $1.95 WIN (2-3)

AL: Red Sox* WIN $1.83 WIN @ Orioles -7.5 $2.02 LOSE (12-3)

AL: Angels @ Rangers** +8.5 $2.02 LOSE (3-5)

AL: Royals WIN $1.92 WIN @ White Sox -6.5 $1.85 LOSE (6-1)

AL: Indians** WIN $1.53 @ Twins WIN (12-6)

AL: Yankees @ Astros -8 $2.16 WIN (3-2)

AL: Athletics* WIN $2.04 LOSE @ Mariners +6.5 $1.96 WIN (3-5)

NL: Pirates* @ Reds* WIN $1.77 LOSE (4-1)

NL: Brewers WIN $1.93 WIN @ Mets -7 $1.83 WIN (4-2)

NL: Phillies WIN $2.15 LOSE @ Braves* -6.5 $1.85 WIN (0-1)

NL: Cubs @ Cardinals* WIN $1.61 WIN (0-7)

NL: Nationals @ D'backs WIN $2.18 LOSE -7.5 $1.93 LOSE (8-4)

NL: Rockies @ Dodgers* -1.5 $1.87 WIN (0-11)

NL: Padres @ Giants +7 $1.88 WIN (3-7)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

NCAAF (week 5) for September 28

MWC: Utah State Aggies (2-2, 1-0 MWC) @ San Jose State Spartans (1-2, 1-0 home), Spartan Stadium, San Jose CA, Saturday, September 28, 11am

San Jose State and Utah State are both coming off a six-day turnaround to face each other at Spartan Stadium, but the game means different things to each team. For San Jose, they are fresh off their second trouncing at the hands of a bigger, more physical team. San Jose has so much to prove in this game on offence and avenge the crushing defeat they suffered last year when Utah State ran all over the Spartan defensive and offensive lines for 13 sacks, 212 rushing yards, 273 passing and 49 points. Utah State’s two losses have been fluky. They’re an offensive powerhouse but their secondary has given up just enough yards to lose two games. Even so, Utah State is heavily favoured in this match-up and they are in San Jose to prove that they’re able to crush all Mountain West opposition. Utah State has one of the more dynamic offensive players in the nation, with QB Chuckie Keeton (pictured) already throwing 14 TD passes this season.

Utah State’s losses have come against mid-level Pac-12 Conference opponents, including a 17-14 setback to the USC Trojans as 6.5-point road underdogs last Saturday. The Aggies have won the statistical battle in all four contests, but failed to score in the first quarter for the first time in 13 games last time out. San Jose State returns home after dropping a pair of road games, including a 43-24 defeat to the Minnesota Golden Gophers as four-point underdogs in Week 3, while going ‘over’ the betting total for the first time in three contests this season. The Spartans did manage to gain a season-high 486 yards in that affair, as QB David Fales continues to impress (ranking second nationally with a 164.8 career passer rating). Fales has plenty of weapons at his disposal in the passing game, but he won’t have wide receiver Noel Grigsby, who is out with a knee injury. The team still has two other options that have 1000-plus receiving yards.

Suggested bets: Game total +61.5 (three units @ 1.91) LOSE, Utah State -9.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (12-40)

Other tips

 

Mid Tennessee +27 @ BYU PUSH (10-37)

CFL (week 14) for September 28

BC Lions (8-4) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-10), Investors Group Field, Winnipeg, MB, Saturday, September 28, 10.05am

After letting a 20-point lead slip away at home in their last tilt, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers must be wondering what they need to do to win at their new stadium. The Blue Bombers will get another chance to improve on their dismal 1-5 record at Investors Group Field when they host the BC Lions. Despite having the league’s worst offence, Winnipeg sits just four points behind the Montreal Alouettes for the final playoff spot with six games remaining – and a win against a tired BC team would go a long way to closing that gap. Winnipeg quarterback Max Hall (pictured) will start here after leaving last week’s game late with an undisclosed injury. Hall, who has completed 52-of-81 passes with two touchdowns and five interceptions in his first CFL season, told reporters on Monday that he wanted to return to the game but team doctors kept him out as a precaution. Winnipeg’s defence is tied for the league lead in sacks with 45, but it is also averaging 293.1 passing yards allowed per game (second-worst in the league).

The Lions earned a hard-fought 24-22 road victory against Saskatchewan on Sunday without starting QB Travis Lulay, who will miss at least one more game with a shoulder injury. Back-up Thomas DeMarco performed well in his first career start, throwing for 208 yards and two touchdowns and completing two key passes in the final minute to set up the winning field goal. BC also limited Saskatchewan to 39 rushing yards in a defensive performance more typical of its home games. DeMarco was benched for part of the second quarter last week and replaced by Buck Pierce – a veteran quarterback recently acquired from Winnipeg. Pierce began his career with the Lions but became the starter for the Blue Bombers in 2010 and could make an appearance on Friday if DeMarco falters. BC’s defence, which has allowed a league-low 88.3 rushing yards per game and just 249.3 passing yards, is tied for the league lead in interceptions with 14. Cornerback Cord Parks has three of those picks in his first CFL season, returning one for a touchdown.

Suggested bets: Game total +50.5 (3.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, Winnipeg +5.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (53-17)

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Daily tips for September 27

Racing (Moonee Valley) for September 27

Tonight’s highlights

R4 G3 $150,000 Gallagher Bassett/TBV Champagne Stakes, Set weights, 1200m)

R6 G2 $220,000 City Jeep Stutt Stakes (Set weights, 1600m)

R7 G3 $200,000 Alternate Railway JRA Cup (Quality, 2040m)

R8 G1 $450,000 Programmed Moir Stakes (WFA, 1200m)

Hardly any rain over the past 24 hours has helped proved the condition of the Moonee Valley track. Only 1.5ml of that has been in the past 24 hours, so the prospect of a slow track now seems remote. At 3.30pm today the track was rated a dead (5). The rail for tonight’s Moir Stakes program is in the three-metre position. There are few winners of Australian stakes races that Peter Snowden has not had a hand in, either in his own right as trainer or as foreman to John Hawkes under the Woodlands banner, with tonight’s Moir Stakes over 1200m at Moonee Valley one of them.

• The task confronting Snowden’s #2 Epaulette is not an easy one as he lines-up against nine rivals with some handy form books. Epaulette is a fairly handy sprinter, winning the G1 Doomben 10000 (1350m) last preparation and of course beating all bar champion mare Black Caviar in the G1 T J Smith Stakes (1200m) at Randwick in April. Only lightly raced, Epaulette has plenty of quality racing ahead and tonight’s assignment affords the entire a great opportunity to make a claim for Australia's sprinting crown vacated by the great mare. Drawn well in four, race rider Kerrin McEvoy, who has won four races from 11 rides atop the sprinter, should be able to get Epaulette into open space on the turn and unleash late.

• The same can be said for freak fresh-up performer #3 Bel Sprinter (pictured) tonight, which remains unbeaten in all five fresh-up runs, the most recent in the G1 Galaxy at Rosehill in March where he literally blew the field apart with a breathtaking last-to-first effort after missing the start by at least two lengths. On that occasion, Epaulette’s rider Kerrin McEvoy was atop the gelding, so he will know exactly what opposition he has in Bel Sprinter. Bel Sprinter is his own worst enemy in many ways. Always a galloper with enormous potential, he continues to find trouble in his races, something that has possibly cost him another group one win in the 2012 Oakleigh Plate. However, youthful trainer Jason Warren has slowly worked him out and this could be his best preparation.

• #1 Buffering, the Group 1 bridesmaid, will carry the hopes of all Queenslanders tonight in his quest to shed that tag while at the same time trying to emulate Black Caviar by scoring back-to-back wins in the feature. The now six-year-old has raced at group one level 16 times, finishing second five times, third four times and fourth four times - a commendable record in itself – but the elusive win has proven a real hoodoo for him. In fact, last start he had to settle for second to Linton in the G1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) at Eagle Farm. Just when he seemed to have the race in his keeping, the winner gained a miracle run along the fence. Buffering also resumes from a spell tonight and his record in that state is very impressive, never missing a place in seven attempts in that state, winning on six occasions.

• Classy mare #9 Snitzerland is another resuming from a spell and is another yet to miss a place in that state from four attempts, winning three times. So, in the “first-up stakes”, several impressive records go on the line tonight in the Moir. Snitzerland was most impressive, winning fresh-up last campaign in the G2 Challenge Stakes at Warwick Farm but over 1000m. She was then beaten comfortably by Bel Sprinter in the Galaxy before missing a place in the G1 Sportingbet Sangster Classic over 1200m in Adelaide.

While Snitzerland rates well enough to be competitive, the 1200m against this tough line-up will certainly test her and she’s probably only a multiples’ hope.

Suggested bet: Moonee Valley R8 #1 Buffering (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Moonee Valley R1 #12 Lion Of Belfort (E/W) 1st ($4.40/$1.90)

Moonee Valley R3 #7 Sertorius (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.50)

Moonee Valley R4 #1 Miracles Of Life (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.40)

Moonee Valley R5 #1 Vatican (E/W) 1st ($9.00/$2.20)

Moonee Valley R6 #6 Late Charge (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R7 #5 Gris Caro (E/W) 2nd ($2.30)

Harness racing tip: Melton R8 #5 Tendor Don (win) 1st ($1.40)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R1 #2 Zipping April (win) 1st ($1.70)

Racing for September 27

Horse racing: Moonee Valley (Vic), Geelong (Vic), Scone (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Gold Coast (Qld), Newcastle (NSW), Gloucester Park (WA), Wagga (NSW), Melton (Vic), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound racing: Bendigo (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Mt Gambier (SA), Mandurah (WA), The Gardens (NSW), Casino (NSW).

All eyes will be on Moonee Valley tonight for the running of the G1 Moir Stakes – scheduled for Friday night due to tomorrow’s AFL Grand Final. My tips for the meeting will available later today in a separate post. Punters should be aware that today's meeting at Geelong will now be held on the synthetic rather than the turf track due to the heavy rain that fell across Victoria on Thursday morning. Racing Victoria (RV) and the Geelong Racing Club chose a conservative approach to minimise potential damage to the newly renovated turf track, which is scheduled to host the 2013 Sportingbet Geelong Cup on October 23. The result of this harebrained decision? A staggering 58 scratchings, including 11 from the opening race alone, which will now feature just five runners. Finding horses with exposed form on the synthetic track isn’t hard, and makes the choice of #7 Ossenhagen as my best of the day a no-brainer. Even at a good thing’s price, it should salute in race 6, the Music Workshop BM70 Handicap over 1100m.

Suggested bet: Geelong R6 #7 Ossenhagen (WIN) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Geelong R3 #5 Wild Sands (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.70)

Geelong R4 #12 Biancrazy (E/W 1x3) 1st ($5.90/$2.00)

Scone R2 #5 Flamingo Lake (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Scone R4 #6 Pasadoble (win) 1st ($1.70)

Scone R7 #7 Sukraji (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ipswich R2 #11 Isla Poppy (win) LOSE (3rd)

Canberra R1 #4 Got The Goss (win) 1st ($1.80)

Canberra R7 #5 Grand Allowance (win) 1st ($2.00)

NRL (week 3 finals) for September 27

Preliminary Final: South Sydney Rabbitohs v Manly Sea Eagles, ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Friday, September 27, 7.45pm

Twelve months after they fell short against Canterbury in their first preliminary final since 1968, South Sydney have the chance to make amends when they take on a bruised and battered Manly side at ANZ Stadium. Having gained valuable finals experience with last year’s run, the Rabbitohs will see this as their big opportunity to reach the grand final and hopefully shoot for their first premiership in 42 years. A confidence-building win over Melbourne in week one of the Finals followed by the week off should have them refreshed and they head into Friday night’s clash warm favourites to progress to the big one. With no major injury worries, they will be confident their big men can get the job done while the likes of Greg Inglis, Issac Luke (pictured), John Sutton and Adam Reynolds will certainly test Manly’s defensive mettle. Yet even though Manly have limped through the past few weeks with a number of players carrying injuries, they boast one significant advantage over the Rabbitohs – they’ve been there and done it all before.

Premiers in 2008 and again in 2011, the Sea Eagles know just what it takes to win the big games and still boast the core of the side that beat the Warriors to lift the trophy two years ago. They will also be well aware that an era is coming to a close and will be keen to send departing stars Brent Kite, George Rose and, potentially, David Williams out on a high. Again though, question marks remain over their fitness and ability to contain the big South Sydney forward pack. Captain Jamie Lyon and back-rowers Anthony Watmough and Jamie Buhrer have all been cleared to play despite suffering injuries last week, while star fullback Brett Stewart continues to race the clock to be fit after missing the past three games with a hamstring injury. While his replacement Peta Hiku has done a superb job in his absence, the Sea Eagles have missed Stewart’s incisiveness. South Sydney have been one of the best sides in the NRL all year and with their huge pack and the strike provided by Inglis and Luke they will take plenty of stopping. (Preview with thanks to Ben Blaschke, NRL.com)

Suggested bet: South Sydney -6.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (20-30)

MLB for September 27

AL: Tampa Bay Rays (89-69, 38-39) @ New York Yankees (82-76, 46-34 home), Yankee Stadium, New York, NY, Friday, September 27, 9.05am

This is Mariano Rivera’s last appearance at Yankee Stadium. Needless to say, the playoff-chasing Tampa Bay Rays will be hoping to see the retiring closer in a non-save situation. The Rays seek a seventh straight win and their first three-game sweep in the Bronx in the Yankees’ home finale. New York (82-76) was eliminated for the second time in the last 19 seasons yesterday during an 8-3 defeat. The Yankees will finish with their lowest win total in a 162-game season since the 1992 team went 76-86. It means this marks the last opportunity for Rivera (pictured) to pitch at home. Baseball's all-time saves leader captured five World Series titles during his Yankees tenure, with Rivera posting the lowest ERA of any pitcher with at least 40 post-season innings with a 0.70 mark over 141.0.

Rivera owns 64 saves in 66 chances against Tampa Bay, going 27-for-27 in the Bronx. The Rays (89-69) have too much at stake to want to face Rivera in a save situation. Tampa Bay holds a one-game lead over Cleveland for the AL’s top wild-card and has a magic number of three to reach the playoffs. The Yankees are losers of three straight and eight of 11 and haven't even enjoyed a lead in this series. NY also hasn't been able to slow down Evan Longoria, who is 5 for 9 in this series after homering twice and driving in four runs yesterday. Longoria is the second player since 1966 to go deep nine times against the Yankees, joining Toronto's Jose Cruz jr from 2001. He has 12 homers and 32 RBIs at new Yankee Stadium to go along with a .301 average and 25 home runs overall versus New York.

Longoria is 4 for 10 with a homer this year against Ivan Nova (9-5, 3.13 ERA), who makes his final 2013 start for New York. Nova struck out seven in a six-hitter Saturday for his second shutout of the year in a 6-0 victory over San Francisco. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 2.66 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay this season, getting three total runs of support. He'll be opposed by Alex Cobb (10-3, 2.90), who is 3-1 with a 2.34 ERA in six career starts against New York including 2-0 with a 1.61 ERA in three this year. The right-hander has captured consecutive starts by surrendering three runs over 16 1/3 innings. This also marks the final home game for Alex Rodriguez before his off-season appeal of a 211-game Biogenesis suspension. He is in a 3-for-39 slump and 0 for 5 versus Cobb.

Suggested bet: Game total -7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.83) WIN, Tampa Bay WIN (1.5 units @ $2.10) WIN (4-0)

Other tips

AL: Blue Jays @ Orioles -8 $1.80 WIN (2-3)

AL: Angels WIN $2.56 LOSE @ Rangers** +9 $2.05 WIN (5-6)

AL: Royals @ White Sox WIN $2.11 LOSE -8 $1.95 WIN (2-3)

AL: Indians** WIN $1.63 @ Twins WIN (6-5)

NL: Diamondbacks WIN $2.02 @ Padres LOSE (2-3)

NL: Phillies @ Braves* WIN $1.59 WIN (1-7)

NL: Brewers @ Mets WIN $1.68 LOSE (4-2)

NL: Dodgers* WIN $2.19 LOSE @ Giants -7 $2.15 WIN (2-3)

* = playoff spot, ** = wild card contender

NCAAF (week 5) for September 27

Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1, 1-0 away) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0, 2-0 ACC), Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, GA, Friday, September 27, 9.30am

Georgia Tech seeks to continue its strong start in the ACC while visiting Virginia Tech strives to continue its recent success against the Yellow Jackets when the squads meet here. Georgia Tech has won its first two ACC games for just the third time in 15 years and can place a firm grasp on the Coastal Division lead with a win over the Hokies, their biggest division threat. Virginia Tech has won three straight and five of the last six meetings. Senior quarterback Logan Thomas (pictured) is off to a poor start, completing 48.5 per cent of his passes and being intercepted six times while throwing four touchdown passes. Thomas has rushed for 22 career touchdowns while redshirt freshman Trey Edmunds (who rushed for 132 yards against Alabama in his first collegiate game) has a team-best 352 rushing yards. Senior defensive end J.R. Collins has a team-best 4.5 sacks, senior middle linebacker Jack Tyler has a team-high 33 tackles while freshman cornerback Brandon Facyson (three) and junior safety Detrick Bonner (two) have combined for five of the Hokies’ nine interceptions for a defense that ranks fifth nationally (233.3 yards per game).

The Yellow Jackets defeated North Carolina 28-20 last week and have won six consecutive ACC games, one shy of the school mark (2009-10). VT has won three consecutive games since losing to Alabama in its opener, but had to go into triple-overtime before outlasting Marshall 29-21 last week. The Hokies beat Georgia Tech last season 20-17 in overtime. The Yellow Jackets are racking up 345.3 yards per game on the ground (fourth nationally) and have rushed for at least 324 in each game. Senior David Sims (211 yards) has yet to be tackled for a loss on 38 rushes, sophomore QB Vad Lee (seven passing touchdowns) has 180 rushing yards and three touchdowns, and senior Robert Godhigh (174 yards) is averaging 12.4 yards per rush and also has five receptions for 83 yards. Defensively, the Yellow Jackets are allowing 11.3 points (12th nationally) but are unsure whether junior outside linebacker Quayshawn Nealy (hamstring) or sophomore safety Chris Milton (wrist) will be available due to injuries suffered in the North Carolina game.

Suggested bet: Virginia Tech +7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN, game total +43.5 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE (17-10)

Other tips

Iowa State @ Tulsa +55 WIN (38-21)

NFL (week 4) for September 27

San Francisco 49ers (1-2, 0-1 away) @ St Louis Rams (1-2, 1-0 home), Edward Jones Dome, St Louis, MO, Friday, September 27, 10.30am

Less than eight months removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the San Francisco 49ers are immersed in controversy on and off the field heading into this match-up in the St Louis. San Francisco has dropped two straight, including a stunning 27-7 defeat at home to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. No team played the 49ers tougher last season than the AFC West rival Rams, who battled to a 24-24 tie in San Francisco and beat them in overtime in St Louis. These division rivals know each other's offences very well. In the past seven visits San Francisco has visited St Louis, the total points line has gone under five times.


St Louis posted a gritty comeback victory over Arizona in its season opener but has fallen behind by at least 21 points in back-to-back road losses to Atlanta and Dallas. Quarterback Sam Bradford (pictured) threw for a season-low 240 yards and was sacked six times against the Cowboys while receiving little help from a ground game in which starting running back Daryl Richardson played only one snap due to a foot injury. Rookie wideout Tavon Austin, the team’s first-round draft pick, has six receptions in each of the first three games but is averaging only 6.6 yards per catch.

The 49ers’ issues go beyond back-to-back inept performances – the team is under siege for allowing sack specialist Aldon Smith to play in Sunday’s game only two days after he was arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence. Smith, who has a history of off-field issues, will enter a rehab facility to receive treatment and will miss this game. St Louis are seeking a bounce-back effort after they were demolished by the Dallas Cowboys 31-7. Losing in Seattle in Week 2 wasn’t a surprise for San Francisco, but being bulldozed by the Colts on both sides of the ball sent shock waves through the league.

Colin Kaepernick turned in a breathtaking performance by throwing for 412 yards in the season opener but has tossed four interceptions and been limited to a combined 277 yards while leading the 49ers to only 10 points in the past two weeks. The absence of tight end Vernon Davis (hamstring) hurt versus the Colts, while the normally stout defense saw All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis exit Sunday’s game with a groin injury. The 49ers secondary boasts rookie revelation S Eric Reid and four-time All Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha, which will make scoring for St Louis extremely difficult.

Suggested bet: Game total -42 (1.5 units @ $1.91) LOSE, St Louis +3.5 (1.5 units @ $1.73) LOSE (35-11)

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