Daily tips for August 29

NCAAF (week 1) for August 29-30

MWC: Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Fresno State Bulldogs, Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA, Friday, August 30, 12.30pm

Rutgers’ revamped defence is in for a quite a stern test in the season opener. The Scarlet Knights lost five starters on the back seven from a year ago and the new group gets little time to ease into the job as Rutgers opens the season against Fresno State. The Bulldogs had one of the nation’s top passing attacks a year ago, led by David Carr and wide receiver Davante Adams, who had 102 catches and 14 touchdowns. Carr threw for a Mountain West record 4104 yards last season with 37 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. Carr needs just 90 yards passing to surpass his brother, former No. 1 overall pick David, for fourth place on the school list and 3049 yards passing to break Kevin Sweeney’s career record at Fresno State. Carr has most of his top targets back, including Adams, Isaiah Burse (57 receptions, 6 TDs) and tight end Marcel Jensen (20 receptions, 4 TDs). The Bulldogs went 6-0 at home last year, outscoring opponents by 31.7 points per game. The offence was particularly dangerous at Bulldog Stadium, averaging 550.5 yards per game.

Rutgers is hoping the experience of graduate transfer Lew Toler, who started 36 of the last 37 games at Western Michigan, will be a big help. The Scarlet Knights hope to get the Gary Nova from the first half of last season instead of the struggling quarterback at the end of 2012. Nova completed 61.2 percent of his passes with 15 touchdowns and three interceptions as Rutgers got off to a 7-0 start. Those numbers plummeted the second half of the season when he completed just 52.4 per cent of his passes with seven touchdowns and 13 interceptions as the Scarlet Knights lost four of their final six games. Nova rededicated himself in the offseason, losing 20 pounds and revamping his throwing motion. Rutgers receiver Brandon Coleman has been an impressive deep threat his first two seasons, averaging 21.2 yards per catch. Ten of his 16 career touchdowns have gone for at least 30 yards and he is averaging 39.1 yards on his touchdowns. Coleman had 10 TD catches last season to tie Marco Battaglia’s single-season school record.

Suggested bet: Fresno State -11 (three units @ $1.93) LOSE (45-38)

Other tips

North Carolina @ South Carolina -12.5 ($1.96) WIN (10-27)

UNLV @ Minnesota +51 ($1.94) WIN (23-50)

Utah State @ Utah +3 ($1.87) WIN (26-30)

Racing for August 29

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic), Murwillumbah (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Northam (WA), Newcastle (NSW). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Hamilton (Vic), Penrith (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Tamworth (NSW). Greyhound racing: Grafton (NSW), Shepparton (Vic), Warragul (Vic), Maitland (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Warrnambool (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic), Angle Park (SA), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Mandurah (WA).

Good (3) tracks are popping up with greater regularity, and that’s the rating for today’s seven-race card at Newcastle, which will be run in fine conditions. Race 2 is the NJC Spring Carnival 3yo Maiden Plate at set weights over 1200m and I’ve settled on a More Than Ready colt from the Darley stables of Peter Snowden. #6 Superstition is making his third start after running a second and third at Canterbury earlier this year. He’s looked good in two trials (the most recent on August 16) and is rated well against this middling bunch, which includes four debutants. Given time to mature, Superstition should be put into a prominent position by Josh Parr from barrier 5 and will give this a big shake.

Suggested bet: Newcastle R2 #6 Superstition WIN (two units) 1st ($4.80)

Other tips

Mornington R2 #10 Mista Spot (E/W 1x3) 3rd $1.70

Mornington R3 #6 Sochi (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Mornington R7 #6 Grane (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.40)

Mornington R8 #14 Hannaford (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.50)

Newcastle R1 #1 Projectile (win) 1st ($1.55)

Newcastle R4 #7 Vision (E/W) LOSE (U/P) 
Newcastle R6 #2 Pompidou (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Murrwillumbah R1 #2 Rapid Heartbreaker (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.80/$1.30)

Murwillumbah R3 #3 I’m Adamant (win) 1st ($2.10)

Murwillumbah R6 #1 Hakakuna (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.30)

Murwillumbah R7 #1 Zarmarski (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rockhampton R2 #1 Girls World (win) 1st ($1.60)

Harness racing tip: Shepparton R5 #8 Striding Success (win) 1st ($2.30)
Greyhound racing tip: Sandown Park R7 #1 Desalle Bale (win) 1st ($1.70)

MLB for August 28-29

Philadelphia Phillies (60-72, 25-41 away) @ New York Mets (59-71, 27-37 home), Citi Field, New York, NY, Thursday, August 29, 9.10am

Cole Hamels has often struggled against the Mets, but this might be the most depleted New York line-up he has ever faced. Hamels (5-13, 3.62 ERA) has a 6-12 career record against the Mets, his worst against any team he’s faced at least four times. He has lost both of his starts against them over the past three months, giving up eight runs and 14 hits in 11 innings. Fortunately for Hamels, David Wright, who has a .339 lifetime average and four homers off the left-hander, is out with a strained right hamstring. Plus, Marlon Byrd and John Buck were traded to Pittsburgh on Tuesday, leaving New York (59-71) without three of its four RBI leaders. The offence of the Phillies (60-72) has rarely picked up Hamels, who has a 2.00 ERA over his last six starts but has gone 1-1. He’s lasted at least seven innings in each of those outings, issuing a combined six walks. His last non-quality start came at Citi Field on July 20, allowing four runs in five innings of a 5-4 defeat.

The Mets will look to help get Daisuke Matsuzaka his first win since August 27 last year. Matsuzaka (0-1, 9.00) allowed five runs in five innings of a 6-1 loss to Detroit on Friday, his first major league start after spending most of the season toiling in Cleveland’s farm system. The right-hander served up two homers (he allowed 11 in 45 2/3 innings last year with Boston) but did retire the last 10 batters he faced. Matsuzaka is 0-5 with a 13.06 ERA in six starts since his last win. One of the best outings of his career was the last time he faced Philadelphia, having a no-hitter broken up with two outs in the eighth inning of a 5-0 Red Sox win. The Phillies may have lost 14 of 16 on the road while averaging 2.0 runs and batting .194, including a combined two runs and nine hits halfway through this four-game set, but I like them in this spot.

Suggested bet: Phillies WIN (three units @ $1.65) WIN, game total -7.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (6-2)

Other tips

IL: Indians @ Braves WIN $1.95 WIN (2-3)

AL: Rangers WIN $2.05 @ Mariners WIN (12-4)

AL: Orioles @ Red Sox -9.5 $1.95 WIN (3-4)

AL: Yankees WIN $1.68 LOSE @ Blue Jays -8.5 $1.80 LOSE (2-7)

AL: Athletics WIN $2.13 @ Tigers WIN (14-4)

AL: Angels @ Rays WIN $1.59 WIN +7.5 $1.91 LOSE (1-4)

AL: Astros +1.5 $1.91 LOSE @ White Sox -7.5 $1.91 WIN (1-6)

AL: Royals @ Twins -8.5 $1.87 LOSE (8-1)

NL: Cubs @ Dodgers -1.5 $2.05 WIN (0-4)

NL: Marlins @ Nationals -1.5 $1.95 LOSE (3-4)

NL: Brewers @ Pirates WIN $1.68 WIN -7.5 $1.95 LOSE (1-7)

NL: Reds WIN $2.05 @ Cardinals WIN (10-0)

NL: Giants @ Rockies -8.5 $1.95 LOSE (4-5)

NL: Padres @ D'backs -1.5 $2.15 LOSE -9 $1.83 WIN (5-1)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for August 28

Racing for August 28

Horse racing: Sportingbet Park Sandown Lakeside (Vic), Warwick Farm (NSW), Eagle Farm (Qld), Murray Bridge (SA), Belmont (WA). Harness racing: Bathurst (NSW), Maryborough (Vic), Mildura (Vic), Redcliffe (Qld). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Bendigo (Vic), Bulli (NSW), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Cranbourne (Vic), Cannington (WA), Ballarat (Vic), Rockhampton (Qld).

It’s a huge day and an early start for today’s 10-race meeting at Sandown Lakeside featuring a pair of jumps’ features each worth $100,000. The Australian Steeplechase favourite Bashboy will go around odds-on and is conceding a massive 10.5 kgs to the other five starters! Our friends at Champion Picks are sponsoring the ninth race, a 0-90 restricted handicap over 1400 metres. It’s a trick affair with many chances but I like the look of the promising Michael Moroney stayer #9 Rhythm To Spare. The 4yo NZ gelding is making his seventh start, and first since finishing 3.8L fourth to Hawkspur in the Group 1 Queensland Derby (2400m) over the winter. He’ll be back in the running today but with Glen Boss staying on board and plenty of strength required to climb the Sandown straight, class could be enough to get this son of Pins over the line.

Suggested bet: Sandown R9 #9 Rhythm To Spare E/W 1x2 (three units) 1st ($2.50/$1.50)

Other tips

Sandown R1 #3 Arch Fire (win) 1st ($1.50)

Sandown R7 #8 Bia Diamond (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Sandown R8 #11 Nadhima (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Sandown R10 # 3 Your Honour (E/W 1x4)

Warwick Farm R2 #16 Wordplay (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.00/$1.60)

Warwick Farm R4 #2 Shelford (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.30)
Warwick Farm R6 #11 Tried And Tired (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Warwick Farm R7 #18 Wistful (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($3.00)

Eagle Farm R6 #3 Southerly (win) LOSE (3rd)

Eagle Farm R7 #7 Vis A Tergo (win) 1st ($3.30)

Murray Bridge R6 #4 Do Telle (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Murray Bridge R8 #1 Saturday Sorcerer (win) 1st ($2.50)

Harness racing tip: Mildura R3 #5 Glasscutterspirit (win) 1st ($1.50)

Greyhound racing tip: Bulli R3 #2 Zambora Gun (win) 1st ($1.40)

Feature: Back to school for a new NCAAF season

While the NFL is the sport wagered the heaviest, college football has become more and more popular as people realise it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly. Betting on college football is not the same as the NFL, so make sure you separate the two.

NCAAF or College Football (which starts on Friday) has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s more manual, but when done correctly, more gratifying and potentially profitable.

Steer clear of big dogs

Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAAF. Teams favoured by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams are playing their non-conference schedules. The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favoured by 40 points is favoured by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

Going through the front or back?

A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favourite scores late and covers the number by which they are favoured. These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second- and third-string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

By the numbers

Getting into the nuts and bolts of College Football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offence and defence, pass efficiency offence and defence and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to College Football. Being able to run the ball in College Football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Yardage doesn’t tell the whole story

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be misinterpreted. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration. I suggest you use pass efficiency ratings but adjust the numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key. Turnovers remain the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a College Football game.

MLB for August 27-28

Chicago Cubs (55-76, 30-35 away) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (77-54, 39-27 home), Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, Wednesday, August 28, 12.10pm

After Zack Greinke’s performance in the series opener exemplified how the Los Angeles Dodgers’ starting rotation is among the best in the majors, Clayton Kershaw will look to provide an encore. Kershaw takes the mound for the NL West leaders at Dodger Stadium as they look to win a ninth straight meeting with the Chicago Cubs for the first time in franchise history. The Dodgers’ rotation has an MLB-best 3.13 ERA after Greinke came within one out of recording his fifth career shutout in yesterday’s 6-2 win. He also added an RBI single for Los Angeles (77-54), which matched its club-record winning streak against Chicago set from June 9, 1974-May 19, 1975. The Dodgers shined offensively, too, as Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, who had three hits, homered to help them remain 9 1/2 games ahead of second-place Arizona in the West. Kershaw (13-7, 1.72 ERA) has tossed up plenty of zeros while leading the majors in ERA. He’s in position to join Lefty Grove (1929-31) and Greg Maddux (1993-95) as the only pitchers since 1901 to finish at the top of that category in three straight seasons. The left-hander has pitched eight innings in five of his last six starts, going 4-1 with a 0.78 ERA.

He has won three straight outings and threw eight scoreless innings in each of the last two, including Thursday’s 6-0 win at Miami. Kershaw has been great against the Cubs in his career as well, going 3-1 with a 1.61 ERA in four starts. Starlin Castro is 0 for 13 against him. Chicago (55-76), which has dropped six of seven, had only three hits through eight innings Monday before Brian Bogusevic’s two-run double with two outs on Greinke’s final pitch. They likely won’t have it any easier against Kershaw as it looks to end the skid against the Dodgers with help from Travis Wood, who is 1-2 with a 7.65 ERA in four career starts versus Los Angeles. Wood (7-10, 3.22) is 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA in his last five outings overall, a stretch that began when he allowed five runs and seven hits while walking five in a season-low 3 1/3 innings of a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers on August 2. The left-hander allowed four runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-4, 13-inning loss to Washington on Thursday. The Cubs have lost four straight at Dodger Stadium.

Suggested bet: Dodgers -1.5 (two units @ $1.78) LOSE, game total -6 (one unit @ $2.02) WIN (3-2)

Other tips

IL: Indians @ Braves WIN $1.79 WIN (0-2)

AL: Yankees WIN $1.88 WIN @ Blue Jays +9 $1.97 LOSE (7-1)

AL: Athletics @ Tigers WIN $1.63 LOSE +8.5 $1.92 WIN (6-3)

AL: Orioles @ Red Sox WIN $1.78 WIN +9 $1.96 WIN (2-13)

AL: Angels @ Rays WIN $1.75 LOSE -7.5 $1.92 LOSE (6-5)

AL: Royals WIN $1.62 @ Twins WIN (6-1)

AL: Astros @ White Sox -1.5 $1.88 LOSE (3-4)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.79 @ Mariners WIN (4-3)

NL: Marlins @ Nationals WIN $1.64 WIN -8.5 $1.93 WIN (1-2)

NL: Brewers WIN $2.23 WIN @ Pirates +7 $1.80 WIN (7-6)

NL: Phillies @ Mets WIN $1.76 WIN -7.5 $1.91 WIN (0-5)

NL: Reds WIN $1.84 LOSE @ Cardinals -7.5 $2.11 WIN (1-6)

NL: Giants @ Rockies WIN $1.85 LOSE -10.5 $1.95 WIN (5-3)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for August 27

MLB for August 27

Philadelphia Phillies (59-71, 24-40 away) @ New York Mets (58-70, 26-36 home), Citi Field, New York, NY, Tuesday, August 27, 9.10am

While a fellow up-and-coming starter has taken the Big Apple by storm, rookie Zack Wheeler is starting to garner some well-deserved acclaim, too. Seeking a third straight win, Wheeler takes the mound opposite Cliff Lee as the New York Mets open a four-game set against the Philadelphia Phillies. After posting a 5.06 ERA in his first three starts, the 23-year-old Wheeler (6-2, 3.49 ERA) has compiled a 5-1 record and a 3.02 ERA in nine outings since the start of July. Still pitching in the shadow of Mets All-Star starter Matt Harvey, Wheeler has gone at least six innings in a season-best three straight starts and has four walks in that span – he averaged 3.1 in his first nine outings. After striking out a career-high 12 in a 4-1 win at San Diego on Aug. 15, Wheeler allowed three runs in 6 2/3 innings to beat Atlanta 5-3 on Tuesday.

Wheeler struggled in his only match-up against Philadelphia (59-71), yielding two runs and seven hits in a season low-tying 4 2/3 innings in a 5-4 win on July 20. I’m going with Lee (10-6, 3.16) to snap a season-worst four-game losing streak. He’s gone winless in his last six starts with a combined eight runs of support. The All-Star left-hander had a 4.62 ERA in that span but pitched well on Wednesday, surrendering two runs in seven innings in a 4-3 walk-off win over Colorado. He's had the Mets’ number over his career, going 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA in his first nine starts against them, before getting tagged for five runs in six innings of a 5-0 road loss on July 21. Lee could have an easier time on Monday against a Mets team that has been outscored 24-5 during a four-game losing streak. New York (58-70) was swept by Detroit last weekend, falling 11-3 in Sunday's finale.

Suggested bet: Phillies WIN (3.5 units @ $1.81) WIN, game total -7 (1.5 units @ $1.85) WIN (2-1)

Other tips

AL: Rays @ Royals WIN $2.10 WIN (1-11)

AL: Yankees @ Blue Jays WIN $1.93 WIN -9 $1.85 WIN (2-5)

AL: Athletics @ Tigers WIN $1.61 LOSE -8 $2.02 LOSE (8-6)

AL: Astros WIN $2.38 @ White Sox WIN (10-8)

AL: Rangers WIN $1.75 WIN @ Mariners +8 $1.80 WIN (8-3)

NL: Reds WIN $2.00 @ Cardinals LOSE (6-8)

NL: Giants +1.5 $1.73 LOSE @ Rockies -10.5 $1.87 WIN (1-6)

NL: Padres WIN $2.18 @ D'backs LOSE (1-6)

NL: Cubs @ Dodgers -1.5 $1.86 WIN (2-6)

EPL for August 26-27

Manchester United v Chelsea, Old Trafford, Manchester, UK, Tuesday, August 27, 5am

So on the 10th day of this new Premier League season comes the first big summit meeting of the season. This is a bold test for Manchester United’s new manager David Moyes (pictured) – as he pointed out, he was not done any favours when the fixture computer served up Jose Mourinho’s new Chelsea as his team’s opponents. Mourinho has been down a similar path. Nine years ago to the month, in his first coming as the Chelsea manager, his first competitive match in charge was against Manchester United at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea won on that day with a first-half goal from Eidur Gudjohnsen against a United team that included Eric Djemba-Djemba, Quinton Fortune and Liam Miller in the starting line up. Nine months later, Chelsea were champions of England for the first time in 50 years. In 42 Premier League matches between the two clubs, there have only been three goalless draws (April 1995; December 1998; May 2007).

Wayne Rooney will doubtless be a central figure regardless of whether he starts the match, is a substitute or is nowhere to be seen. Rumour has it that Chelsea will make a third offer for Rooney after this game is out of the way. The fact is that David Moyes has steadfastly maintained the position that Rooney will not be sold.  And who will be Mourinho’s choice for Chelsea up front? Fernando Torres sat out their league game against Aston Villa last Wednesday, but he's not started either of their two matches against Manchester United at Old Trafford since perpetrating the most glaring of misses in front of the Stretford End when Andre Villas Boas’ Chelsea were beaten 3-1 almost two years ago. When we see David Moyes in the home dug-out for this one it will be the time when it finally hits home that the Old Trafford guard has truly changed.

Suggested bet: Both Teams Score (2.5 units @ $1.61) LOSE, correct score 1-1 (0.5 units @ $5.25) LOSE (0-0)

• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for August 26

NRL (round 24) for August 26

Cronulla Sharks (12-9) v Sydney Roosters (17-4), Ramondis Stadium, Monday, August 26, 7pm

Having scored an unlikely last-minute win against old rivals St George Illawarra last week, Cronulla will be looking to cement their finals spot and make a huge statement of intent when they host the Sydney Roosters. But it will take a Herculean performance if they are to halt the momentum of the competition leaders who have won eight in a row and handed the Sharks a rugby league lesson when they belted them 40-0 just five weeks ago. But with a full strength side, I’m expecting that the Sharks can salute at our custom line of +8 tonight.

Currently in sixth spot on the ladder with 28 competition points, they need just one more win to guarantee themselves a spot come September and will probably sneak in anyway even if they suffer a sudden and dramatic collapse. Of course, they’ll be aiming much higher than that. This is the time of year when the true contenders start to make a statement and with the likes of Beau Ryan and Anthony Tupou returning from injury last week and lock Wade Graham back this week, perhaps the stars are indeed aligning at the right time of year.

It’s been a long time since any side has even come close to downing the Chooks. Their eight-game winning run has seen them score a whopping 266 points including at least 28 points in each of their past six, while they have managed to hold opponents to nil on five separate occasions in 2013. The impact of their big-name signings this season comes as no surprise but they also boast depth with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck impressing at fullback in the absence of injured captain Anthony Minichiello and Daniel Mortimer providing a foil for Maloney and Pearce as well as hooker Jake Friend off the bench.

Suggested bet: Cronulla +8.5 (three units @ $1.82) WIN (32-22)

Racing for August 26

Horse racing: Warrnambool (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Bathurst (NSW). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Globe Derby (SA), Warragul (Vic), Pinjarra (WA). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Northam (WA), Nowra (NSW), Shepparton (Vic).

Hawkesbury trainer Garry White has an outstanding ratio of runners-to-winners when he sends starters to Bathurst and will be hoping to continue the rich vein of form in today’s seven-race card to be run on a slow (6). White’s runner in the Regional Telecommunications Class 2 Handicap over 1400 metres, #6 Magical Tales will appreciate a drop in grade here. The six-year-old daughter of Tale Of The Cat will be having her fourth run back from a break after finishing a 1.4 length fourth at Hawkesbury last time out. She’s been placed eight times in 17 starts and looks well placed to add to that tally here.

Suggested bet: Bathurst R6 #3 Magical Tales WIN (two units @ $1.65) LOSE (4th)

Other tips

Warrnambool R1 #4 Makana Lei (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.50)

Warrnambool R2 #3 Oak Heart (win) LOSE (U/P)

Warrnambool R7 #1 Red Corner (win) LOSE (2nd)

Warrnambool R8 #14 Lady Jodalyna (E/W) 1st ($7.30/$2.50)

Grafton R1 #1 Special Miss (E/W 1x2)  2nd ($1.70)

Grafton R2 #5 Note To Bee (win) LOSE (U/P)

Grafton R6 #2 Kapcat (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Bathurst R1 #4 Hall of Peace (win) 1st ($1.60)

Bathurst R2 #1 Alittlebitofduey (win) LOSE (U/P)

Bathurst R4 #6 Oywotzy (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.70/$1.50)

Harness racing tip: Warragul R1 #1 Major Landscape (win) SCRATCHED

Greyhound racing tip: Shepparton R8 2/1 Boxed Exacta

Special report: 2013 Federal Election (Pt 4)

Over the coming weeks, I will preview each of the States ahead of the 2013 Federal Election and the seats that will be worth watching in terms of betting ahead of the September 7 poll. The fourth State for preview is Victoria.

No. of House of Representatives seats: 37 (ALP holds 22 seats, Coalition holds 14 seats, Greens hold 1 seat)

The expected wipeout of Labor in New South Wales and Queensland isn’t likely to translate into Victoria with only a handful of changes expected in next Saturday’s Federal Election. Back in 2010, the gains of La Trobe and McEwen helping offset significant losses in Queensland and New South Wales for Labor. This time, Victoria is expected to play an unusually small role. With polling suggesting a swing to the Coalition, they are expected to pick up the three ALP seats held by a margin of under one per cent but will need to improve significantly to get a fourth with Chisholm the next in line to fall at 5.8 per cent. The seat of Melbourne will also prove a fascinating battle as the Greens look to retain their only seat in the House in the face of a strong challenge from the ALP.

Melbourne and its suburban surrounds contain 25 of Victoria’s 37 seats with the ALP holding 17 to the Coalition’s seven with the Greens holding one. The seven Coalition seats – with the expected swing to Tony Abbott – are not expected to be in any danger. Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong and Menzies are all safe Coalition seats in Melbourne’s east with margins greater than six per cent while Aston, Casey and Dunkley – all with margins of less than two per cent – are strongly favoured to be retained. Of Labor’s 17 seats, six (Calwell, Gorton, Lalor, Scullin, Wills and Gellibrand) are held on margins greater than 20 per cent with a further five (Isaacs, Jagajaga, Holt, Hotham and Maribyrnong) have double-figure margins. Melbourne Ports and Bruce both have margins of greater than 7.7 per cent and are in no danger while the Greens pose only an outside threat in the inner-city seat of Batman. Chisholm is another seat – at 5.8% – that is viewed as being only an outside chance of switching.

That leaves Deakin and La Trobe, both on margins of less than two per cent, as the Labor-held Melbourne seats that are considered in trouble. The Eastern Suburbs seat of Deakin, on a margin of just 0.6 per cent, is strongly expected to return to its natural inclination of a Liberal MP, which it has been for all but seven years since its creation in 1937. La Trobe, in Melbourne’s outer-east, is more salvageable for Labor on 1.7 per cent but former MP Jason Wood will recontest the seat. The redistribution has given Labor more breathing room but it would be a surprise if they held La Trobe. The most intriguing seat is the seat of Melbourne. Claimed by the Greens in 2010 following the retirement of Lindsay Tanner, Melbourne is a prize the ALP is hoping to regain this time around. Greens MP Adam Bandt has done a tremendous job in connecting with the community but must win without Liberal preferences, as he did in 2010. The ALP are favoured here but the smart money is on a Greens retain.

Victoria has 12 seats that are classified rural and it is really only the seat of Corangamite that creates any real interest. The Coalition have seven rural seats – Flinders, Gippsland, Mallee, Murray, Wannon, Indi and McMillan – which are not expected to be threatened, though there is a groundswell in Indi for a potential independent upset. Labor hold four seats that are likely out of reach for the Coalition as well with McEwen (after the recent redistribution), Bendigo, Ballarat and Corio – all based in populated regional areas – expected to be retained by Labor. That leaves the seat of Corangamite on a margin of just 0.4 per cent. Darren Cheeseman won the seat for the ALP in 2007 and held on in 2010 against Sarah Henderson, who is again challenging for the Coalition. The seat was a conservative held from 1931 to 2007 and it is strongly favoured to go back.

Seats to watch

Melbourne – Greens/Adam Bandt (WIN) $3.60

Indi – Independent/Cathy McGowan (WIN) $3.80

ALP safest seat – Batman ($4.00) 

NFL pre-season (week 3) for August 26

Minnesota Vikings (0-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (1-1), Candlestick Park, San Francisco, CA, Monday, August 26, 10am

Two quarterbacks from the 2011 NFL Draft class will go head-to-head to complete week 3 of the NFL pre-season. One was drafted in the first round and is playing for his job this season. The other was drafted in the second round has lead his team to a Super Bowl. Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick are two quarterbacks on the opposite end of the job security spectrum. Ponder is more experienced in terms of games played and was the higher draft pick, but Kaepernick has the edge in ability and achievements at this point in their respective careers. The Vikings enter the 2013 season with plenty to prove on offence. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL, but Ponder needs to take a step forward to get this offense to the next level. That may be tough to do with the departure of Percy Harvin, but the Vikings are hoping Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson can help pick up the slack.

Defensively, Minnesota will rely on rookies Sharrif Floyd and Xavier Rhodes to make an impact right away. Floyd won’t play for the remainder of the preseason after injuring his knee in the first exhibition game. Kaepernick enters his first full season as the San Francisco 49ers’ starting quarterback, and he will have plenty of talent around him to help make it a successful one. Michael Crabtree may be injured, but the 49ers still have one of the league’s best offensive lines and a formidable group of receivers. Add in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching ability, and it’s not a stretch to call San Francisco one of the NFC’s most dangerous offenses. But the 49ers built this thing on defence, and the strength lies in the front seven, which is loaded with young, talented players. They will be looking for improvement from the secondary, but Nnamdi Asomugha has shown signs of life after signing a team-friendly deal with San Francisco this off-season.

Suggested bet: Minnesota +3 (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE, game total +39 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (14-34)

Other tips

Saints @ Texans +44.5 WIN (31-23)

MLB for August 26

Colorado Rockies (60-71, 24-44 away) @ Miami Marlins (49-79, 29-38 home), Marlins Park, Miami, FL, Monday, August 26, 3.10am

The Marlins duly saluted as my best bet yesterday, but I’ll be siding with the Rockies here as they may not need too many runs to end the trip to south Florida on a positive note. Jorge De La Rosa seeks his fourth straight win and 14th overall as the Rockies try for their first road series win in nearly seven weeks against the Miami Marlins. Todd Helton, who moved into 96th place on the all-time hit list with 2496 in 17 seasons, had two of Colorado’s four hits off All-Star rookie Jose Fernandez in yesterday’s 3-0 loss. Teammate Michael Cuddyer had the only other two hits, raising his average to .419 during an eight-game hitting streak.

The Rockies (60-71) have averaged 3.1 runs and batted .177 with runners in scoring position while dropping six of their last eight on this 10-game trip that concludes here. Colorado, though, still has a chance to win its first road series since taking two of three in San Diego from July 8-10 with De La Rosa (13-6, 3.21 ERA) going to the mound. After allowing 11 runs and 16 hits in nine innings over two starts, the left-hander has a 2.45 ERA while winning his last three. He yielded three runs and three hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 5-3 win at Philadelphia on Tuesday. De La Rosa has also won three straight against the Marlins (49-79), posting a 1.59 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 22 2/3 innings over his last four starts. He scattered five hits over six shutout innings in the last meeting, a 2-1 win on July 24.

Miami starter Jacob Turner (3-4, 3.02) lost to De La Rosa in that contest, giving up two runs and six hits over six innings. Turner has allowed 14 walks and 19 hits while failing to make it out of the sixth in his last three outings. He was tagged for four runs and season-worst 10 hits over five innings Tuesday but did not receive a decision in Miami’s 6-4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The right-hander has gone 0-3 with a 3.99 ERA in his last seven starts, getting only 11 runs of support in those outings. Miami will try to reverse that trend, though it has tallied six runs while batting .169 over its last four games.

Suggested bet: Rockies WIN (1.5 units @ $1.92) WIN, game total -7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.80) WIN (4-3)

Other tips

IL: Tigers @ Mets WIN $2.37 LOSE +7.5 $1.91 WIN (11-3)

IL: Red Sox @ Dodgers WIN $1.97 LOSE -7.5 $2.00 LOSE (8-1)

AL: Yankees WIN $2.32 WIN @ Rays -7.5 $1.85 WIN (3-2)

AL: Blue Jays WIN $1.72 WIN @ Astros +8.5 $1.94 LOSE (2-1)

AL: Angels @ Mariners +7.5 $2.06 WIN (7-1)

NL: Brewers @ Reds WIN $1.51 LOSE (3-1)

NL: D'backs WIN $1.73 LOSE @ Phillies +8 $2.04 WIN (5-9)

NL: Braves @ Cardinals WIN $1.81 LOSE (5-2)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.77 LOSE @ Giants +7.5 $2.00 LOSE (0-4)

NL: Cubs +1.5 $1.62 @ Padres WIN (2-3)

EPL for August 25-26

Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City, White Hart Lane, London, UK, Monday, August 26, 1am

Tottenham have never lost at home to Swansea in the league and on the evidence of the opening day’s fixtures they’ll maintain that record here. Chairman Daniel Levy has astutely gone about his business once it became clear that Gareth Bale (pictured) wanted to go to Real Madrid (he's set to sign on Tuesday). He’s softened the blow for fans by bringing in exciting new players before the actual departure of the Welsh wizard. Roberto Soldado has banged in 16 in his last 14 games for club and country and will trouble a Swansea defence that caved in against Manchester United. Tottenham's season looks full of promise. It’s only a matter of time before they start genuinely challenging for the title even without Bale. Tottenham have lost just two Premier League matches since 9 December 2012.

Those defeats came in back-to-back matches against Liverpool and Fulham in March. Like so many sides before them, Swansea’s league form has dipped since winning the League Cup with just two victories from 12 Premier outings. Although that’s relegation form, they should be OK as long as they hold to Ashley Williams and Michu. The Welshman is the only really composed centre-back in their ranks and the Spaniard can only benefit from the arrival of Wilfried Bony. European football will be an exciting distraction, but they must get early league points on the board. Tottenham’s squad is big enough to deal with two big games in four days especially this early in the season. Swansea’s resources will be stretched thinner.

Suggested bet: Tottenham WIN (2.5 units @ $1.71) WIN (1-0)

Other tips

Cardiff City v Manchester City 2+ ($2.30) LOSE (3-2)

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