Daily tips for December 7

What’s on today

A super Saturday of racing and sport kicks-off with the NCAAF Mid-American Conference championship game featuring Northern Illinois and Bowling Green; there are also 10 games in the NBA and an NHL slate of six games for consideration; closer to home, Australia will be out to press home its advantage over England in the Second Test while the highlight of the day’s racing is the G1 Kingston Town Classic at Ascot in Perth; I’ll also have FA Cup, EPL and A-League football selections throughout the day.

Racing for December 7

Horse racing: Caulfield (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Newcastle (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Pakenham (Vic), Ballina (NSW), Townsville (Qld), Darwin (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Albury (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bankstown (NSW), Bunbury (WA), Cranbourne (Vic), Globe Derby (SA). Greyhound racing: Richmond (NSW), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Warragul (Vic), The Meadows (Vic), Cannington (WA), The Gardens (NSW).

• Ascot best of the day: R3 #2 Low Tide (E/W) LOSE (U/P) – the focus returns to the west today for the running of the $500,000 Group 1 Kingston Town Classic at Ascot where local hope Luckygray is expected to dominate based on his G1 Railway Stakes win here two weeks ago. I’m going way outside the obvious for some value in the 1800m weight for age feature with #3 God Has Spoken. The 7yo entire finished within two lengths of Luckygray in the Railway. He’s up in weight here but finished third in this race in 2012 and is going just as well this year. He should race on the speed from the inside draw and might be tough to run down. My best of the day comes up in race 3, the Aquanita Stakes over 1800m. #2 Low Tide was fourth in the WA Guineas behind Ihtsahymn and is the pick of this bunch.

• Doomben best of the day: R7 #14 Cape Kidnappers (win) SCRATCHED – he split Heart Testa and Zaratone last start over 1100 metres at Rosehill and those two have since quinellaed the Starlight Stakes over the same course and distance. He’s a talented sprinter and gets a significant weight advantage over the likes of Famous Seamus and Facile Tigre here.

• Caulfield best of the day: R3 #3 You Can Dance (E/W) LOSE (U/P) – a BM90 over 1200m for the mares looks ready made for Robbie Griffiths and Glen Boss. After trialling well, she was three lengths eighth in the G3 Mumm Stakes at Flemington over the spring but is way down in class on that here and should be well up on the speed.

• Randwick best of the day: R5 #5 Solemn (win) 1st ($2.60) – this 4yo gelding from the Darley camp won last time out over 1550m here two weeks ago in which he defeated several of these. Barrier 10 isn’t a great impost in the 10-horse field, he’s won up to 2200m while Kerrin McEvoy is back in town after a midweek triumph in Hong Kong to take the ride.

Other confirmed bets

Caulfield R2 #7 Star Beauty (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Caulfield R5 #4 Loveyamadly (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)
Caulfield R6 #1 Don’t Get Excited (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.50/$1.90)
Randwick R3 #5 Tenacitus (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.70)
Randwick R8 #7 Messene (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.00/$1.60)
Doomben R8 #7 Qfighter (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)
Morphettville R2 #1 Lucky Symbol (win) 1st ($2.20)
Newcastle R3 #2 Indian Chief (win) 1st ($2.80)

Leans

Caulfield R1 Exacta 2-5/7 LOSE (2-9)
Caulfield R4 #3 Goldbya (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Caulfield R7 #8 Initiator (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60)

Randwick R1 #4 Sinjoren (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.00/$1.60)
Randwick R4 #1 Calming Influence (win) 1st ($3.50)
Randwick R6 #2 Territory (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Randwick R7 #11 Miniature (win) 1st ($2.50)
Doomben R4 #2 Enquare (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.80/$1.40)
Doomben R5 #10 Miss Husson (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Morphettville R3 #4 Dontmentionthewar (E/W 1x4) SCRATCHED
Morphettville R6 #5 Back on Target (win) LOSE (3rd)
Ascot R5 #3 Kerrific (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Newcastle R1 #7 Nisroc (win) 1st ($2.20)
Newcastle R7 #4 Chain Of Events (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Cranbourne R4 #1 No Bettertime (win) 1st ($1.70)
Greyhound racing tip: The Meadows R4 #3 Raven Pearl (win) 1st ($1.90)

College Football (week 15) for December 7

MAC: Bowling Green Falcons (9-3, 7-1 MAC) @ 14 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-0, 8-0 MAC), Ford Field, Detroit, MI, Saturday, December 7, 11.30am

I just about choked on my Corn Flakes when I saw the Huskies favoured here by a field goal. They’ve been cash cows for me all season and I’m not about to jump off here. Northern Illinois became the first MAC school to earn a BCS bowl bid in 2012, and has no plans on stopping. The Huskies are the only team aside from FSU and OSU that remain unbeaten, and a win against Bowling Green would lock up a third consecutive conference title, as well. Bowling Green has lost the past three match-ups between the schools, but with the fifth-best defence in the FBS, they will pose a challenge to the Huskies on neutral territory under the roof at Ford Field in Detroit. The Huskies tied a school record with their 12th straight win last Tuesday and have won 24 of their last 25 overall. Another victory would allow Northern Illinois to become the first school since Marshall to win three straight MAC championships. Northern Illinois is 5-1 ATS in its past six games following a SU win while ‘under’ is 10-2 in Northern Illinois’ last 12 neutral site games.

While the Huskies possess a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate in Jordan Lynch (just the fifth player in FBS history with 4000 rushing and 5000 passing yards, pictured) and have 25 straight victories over MAC opponents, the Falcons can take solace in the fact Northern Illinois has won the last two title games by a combined 10 points. Bowling Green, which reached the nine-win mark for the first time since 2004 with Friday’s victory over Buffalo, has outscored its opponents 176-17 during its four-game winning streak. The Falcons are seeking their 11th MAC title and first since 1992. Running back Travis Greene, a converted receiver, ranks second in the conference in rushing behind Lynch with 1422 yards – 23 yards shy of breaking the school record set by Fred Durig in 1951. The Eagles complement the league’s third-best rushing offense with a defense that ranks fifth in the country in scoring defense (13.8 points) and seventh in total defense (296.6 yards). Perhaps even more impressively, Bowling Green has not allowed a second-half point during the last four games. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games.

Confirmed bet

Bowling Green Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies -3 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (47-27)

Lean

Bowling Green Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies +58 $1.91 WIN (47-27)

NHL for December 7

Anaheim Ducks (18-7-5, 41 pts) @ Chicago Blackhawks (20-6-4, 44 pts), United Center, Chicago, IL, Saturday, December 7, 12.10pm

NHL best of the day: The Chicago Blackhawks have suffered back-to-back regulation losses for the first time this season and will next face the only team they failed to beat during their Stanley Cup-winning campaign. The Anaheim Ducks, though, will also be seeking to avoid a third straight defeat. Chicago (20-6-4) has seen its momentum stall since winning the final six of its seven consecutive road games. The Blackhawks fell 4-3 to Dallas in its return to the United Center on Tuesday then suffered another 4-3 defeat in Minnesota on Thursday. Chicago had a season-low 19 shots (four in the final period) and let Minnesota convert two of its three power-play chances. The Blackhawks have allowed four goals in their last 10 penalty kills. The Ducks, meanwhile, have boasted one of the league's most effective power-play units of late, converting eight of its last 31 opportunities. They scored one of those goals Tuesday against Los Angeles but suffered a 3-2 shootout defeat. Both teams are averaging more than three goals per game and conceding more than 2.5 goals per game and I’m anticipating this game to go over the 5.5 goals on offer.

Anaheim Ducks @ Chicago Blackhawks +5.5 (one unit @ $1.84) LOSE (3-2)

Other confirmed bets

2.10pm: Phoenix Coyotes (16-8-4, 36 pts) @ Vancouver Canucks (15-10-5, 35 pts) WIN (one unit @ $1.72) WIN (2-3) – Vancouver returns home after going 3-1 on their recent four-game road trip. This will be the first of a five-in-nine home stand for the Canucks. Unfortunately they’ve been much better on the road (10-7) than at home (5-8). The Coyotes have had recent success when playing three-games in four-days. However, they will be facing a Vancouver team that comes off a successful road trip, and will be eager to start winning consistently at home again.

Adding – 11.10am: Detroit Red Wings (14-8-7, 35 pts) @ New Jersey Devils (11-12-6, 28 pts) WIN 1P -1.5 (one unit @ $1.65) WIN (0-1)

Adding – 11.10am: Grand Salami +32.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (31)

Leans

San Jose Sharks WIN $1.61 @ Carolina Hurricanes LOSE (3-5)

Minnesota Wild WIN $1.92 LOSE @ Columbus Blue Jackets -5 $1.96 WIN (0-4)

Anaheim Ducks WIN $2.46 @ Chicago Blackhawks WIN (3-2)

Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames WIN $2.07 LOSE (3-2)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Vancouver Canucks -5.5 $1.75 WIN (2-3)

NBA for December 7

Toronto Raptors (6-11, 3-5 away) @ Phoenix Suns (10-9, 5-3 home), US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ, Saturday, December 7, 1.10pm

NBA best of the day: It’s easy to take too much stock in a single NBA but I couldn’t help thinking that Toronto’s loss to Golden State on Wednesday was a season-defining result. And not in a positive way. They were up by 27 points in the second half and 18 points going into the fourth quarter, but lost 112-103 as eight-point road dogs when Golden State started lighting up from three-point range. That was the biggest fourth-quarter comeback for the Warriors in more than 50 years. Toronto (6-11) gave up 112 points for the second straight game and is letting opponents shoot 49.8 per cent from the field during a four-game losing streak. Phoenix is among the league's best shooting teams at 46.3 per cent. Goran Dragic (pictured) is at 53.7 over the past five games while averaging 21.8 points. The efficiency stats for the full season suggest that these two teams aren’t that far apart; Toronto is No. 18 on offence and No. 9 on defence, while Phoenix is No. 10 in offence and No. 13 on defence. However, the Raptors are woefully imbalanced on the court, and after that loss to Golden State, they might be psychologically imbalanced, too.

Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns -4 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (97-106)

Other confirmed bets

11.40am: Cleveland Cavaliers (6-12, 1-9 away) @ Atlanta Hawks (10-10, 6-3 home) -6 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (89-108) – Cleveland is 2-18 away from home since the end of February, the last month it won more than two in a row overall. The Cavs are coming off perhaps their best performance, stopping the Nuggets’ seven-game winning streak in a 98-88 victory. Despite being six games under .500, the Hawks haven’t fallen too far from the pack in the Eastern Conference, where only Indiana and Miami have winning records. The Hawks have won five of six at home against the Cavaliers and should improve that to 6-1 here.

12.10pm: Oklahoma City Thunder (13-4, 4-4 away) @ New Orleans Pelicans (9-9, 5-4 home) +5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (109-95) – the Thunder may be the better side here but the Pelicans are a rapidly improving team. They may be without Anthony Davis, who is their best player. Keep in mind that the Pelicans weren’t exactly that good with him in the line-up and have won two of their past three thanks to players like Ryan Anderson (28.3 points per game and 8.3 rebounds per game in the last three). They’re 0-5 ATS against teams with winnings records but ready to right that stat here.

2.10pm: Los Angeles Lakers (9-9, 3-5 away) @ Sacramento Kings (4-12, 3-8 home) -3.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (106-100) – there’s still no Kobe Bryant for the Lakers and now there’s no Jordan Farmar who is expected to miss four weeks after tearing his left hamstring. Pau Gasol is also below 100 per cent fitness due to a sprained ankle. The Kings (4-12) have lost five in a row, though three of those defeats were by a combined five points and another was in overtime. DeMarcus Cousins is out for the Kings but I think they can pinch a result here.

Adding – 11.40am: Orlando Magic (6-12, 1-7 away) @ New York Knicks (4-13, 1-7 home) +195 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (83-121)

Leans

Philadelphia 76ers +7 $1.91 @ Charlotte Bobcats LOSE (88-105)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards +192 $1.91 WIN (109-105)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks +195.5 $1.91 WIN (89-108)

Denver Nuggets -4 $1.91 @ Boston Celtics LOSE (98-106)

Golden State Warriors +4.5 $1.91 @ Houston Rockets LOSE (83-105)

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers -11.5 $1.91 WIN (98-130)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings + 202 $1.91 WIN (106-100)


Another week on the punting Callander

Welcome to this regular feature of the Last At Cannington blog highlighting some of the stories and results that have caught my punting eye over the past seven days. By Sean Callander.

The countdown to the 2014 World Cup finals in Brazil is on in earnest with two of the most important announcements scheduled for this week – both of which are eagerly awaited by punters. The draw for the 32 nations contesting the tournament will be held on Saturday (3am AEDT) with the eight seeded nations comprising Brazil, Spain, Germany, Argentina, Colombia, Belgium, Uruguay and Switzerland. Yep, Switzerland! Earlier in the week, the official game ball was revealed. So what? The task of designing the World Cup football has been the domain of adidas since 1970.

Four years ago, they served up Jabulani for South Africa 2010, which proved to be little more than a glorified balloon and helped contribute to the second lowest scoring World Cup finals in history (behind Italy 1990). I’m expecting that players will find it easier to hit the target next June using Brazuca (pictured), the official game ball for World Cup 2014. Brazuca seems to be a direct response to the criticism from players of specific positions in past tournaments. In 2010 it came from goalkeepers. In 2006, some players thought that the ball favoured strikers, particularly from set-pieces. Old-style soccer balls comprised 30 panels that were stitched together.

Over the years, the number of panels has been reduced (Brazuca has six) but the surface of the ball reveals a dimpled-pattern not dissimilar to a basketball. The surface aberrations where panels were sown together on older balls contributed to the flight dynamics of the ball, providing some surface variations to grab the air and create the change in pressure required for the ball to curve. As has been the case for the past 40 years, nations that don’t have sponsorship agreements with adidas will be denied access to the ball until the commencement of the tournament! Watch for markets on the total goals for the tournament to be available soon.

• Regular visitors to this blog will be familiar with my endless frustration regarding the preparation of tracks for thoroughbred meetings in Melbourne and Sydney. So ahead of the Villiers Stakes meeting on December 14, it was great to watch the new Kensington track at Randwick pass its first test. Despite almost 100mm of rain falling at Randwick during the week before the first meeting, the all-weather surface was rated in the good category. The track recently underwent a $1.7 million renovation before it was reopened for racing in October.

My Sydney clocker relayed these comments regarding the ‘Kenso’ circuit: “Fast times – our clock counter will need to be reset! Reduced track impact, after eight races the track still looked fresh; reduced track divots evident from little activity from staff repairing divots between races; horses came from all over to win, confidence from all over the width of the track; very happy jockeys and trainers, with positive comments as the jockeys leave the track after racing.”

Hopefully the refurbishment at Caulfield will be as successful – just a shame we have to wait another 12 months. The Caulfield course proper will undergo a full renovation following next year’s Caulfield Cup. The resurfacing will be exactly the same as the 2005 project, and will mean racing won’t return to the track until the Blue Diamond meeting in 2015. The proposed Caulfield resurfacing follows similar renovations at Sandown, where racing is scheduled to return in February 2014.

• It’s being called the greatest finish to a College Football game. Ever. Let’s set the scene – it’s the battle for the Iron Bowl between the nation’s top ranked side Alabama and their fierce cross-state rivals Auburn (ranked 4). The public address announcer at the Jordan-Hare Stadium had already declared the game 28-28 at the end of regulation as Alabama kicker Adam Griffith’s 57-yard field goal attempt started to fall short as time expired in the fourth quarter. Then Chris Davis (pictured below) intervened.

He caught the ball about nine yards deep in the end zone. He sprinted down the left sideline and cut back with nothing but teammates around him to return the missed field-goal attempt more than 100 yards for a touchdown. Incredibly, it’s the second time Auburn has snatched a dramatic win at the last gasp this season. A deflected 73-yard touchdown pass from Nick Marshall to Ricardo Louis dubbed "The Immaculate Deflection" with 25 seconds left handed them victory over Georgia.

One punter is riding this streak like a bucking bronco. Former Auburn student Mark Skiba wagered $100 for Auburn to win the BCS Championship, at the odds of 500-1! “After the A&M game, when you sat down and looked at our remaining schedule, you could see that we had a good shot at going into the Alabama game with only one loss. The A&M game was definitely the turning point in the season. Then there was the Georgia game. For that game to end the way it did, you start to think about mystical words like destiny and fate. And now we have the Alabama game. That's destiny and fate on steroids!”

Final word: When it comes to novelty bets, no-one beats Paddy Power. I came across this classic relating to the method that Wikileaks founder Julian Assange will use to leave the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, where he is currently holed up. Options include UK police car (4/5), Ecuadorian state car (5/4), helicopter (8/1), diplomatic bag (20/1), laundry van (66/1), tunnel (100/1), hot air balloon (150/1) and jet pack (500/1). I’d be interested to see the price on a wooden box!

 • Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for December 6

What’s on today

Where do we start? The line-up for today includes the opening game of week 14 in the NFL as the Texans head to Jacksonville while Cincinnati host Louisville in the sole College Football game of the day; there are just three NBA games for consideration including a genuine head-scratcher between the Knicks and Nets (scoreless draw perhaps?) plus a big line-up of 10 NHL games; locally, the Second Test continues in Adelaide while round 9 of the A-League kicks-off tonight.


Racing for December 6

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic – heavy 9), Doomben (Qld – dead 4), Coffs Harbour (NSW – dead 4), Port Lincoln (SA – good 3), Mt Barker (WA – good 3), Mudgee (NSW – dead 4), Moonee Valley (Vic – night, dead 5). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Wagga (NSW), Carrick (Tas), Melton (Vic), Menangle (NSW), Newcastle (NSW), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Angle Park (SA), Bendigo (Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Where would you rather be on a random Friday than in central-west New South Wales for the running of the $30,000 Robert Oatley Vineyards Mudgee Cup. The weather is fine and sunny, the track a dead (4) and, with some of Robert Oatley’s finest to quaff, it should be a great day! Warwick Farm trainer David Vandyke (pictured) has a very strong hand across the eight-race card with #4 Husson Choice the best of the day in race 2, the Whitsundays Maiden Plate over 1500m. It’s the first prep for this 3yo gelding – he was sixth of 11 on debut behind Oxford Poet and a last start second at Kembla Grange on November 16. Jeff Penza stays aboard and although he’ll jump from the outside gate, he should be winning this.

Mudgee R2 #4 Husson Choice (win) LOSE (2nd)

Other confirmed bets

Mudgee R6 #5 Power Ranger (win) LOSE (4th) – another David Vandyke runner, this one in the Nick Moraitis colours, is undefeated in two starts and looks mighty hard to toss in this Class 2 sprint over 1200m after a six-week freshen-up. He gets in well here at the set weights.

Coffs Harbour R5 #2 Villamill (E/W) LOSE (U/P) – the Kempsey Cup winner returns here after a four-week breather for an open handicap over 1303 metres. The Peter Ball trained 5yo mare has contested 10 races in the 1300 to 1450-metre distance range and has won four times with an additional three placings.

Mornington R3 #2 She’s Precious (win) 1st ($2.70) – this 5yo mare will be a good thing’s price in a small field but I can’t see her losing. Noel Callow stays aboard for Colin and Cindy Alderson after steering her to victory on a slow track at Traralgon last time out over 1430 metres.

Adding: Moonee Valley R5 #3 Johannapine (E/W) 3rd ($3.20)

Leans

Mornington R2 #1 Acebo (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Mornington R7 #2 I Maximus (E/W 1x2) LOSE (4th)

Coffs Harbour R2 #8 Za Dust (E/W) 1st ($5.80/$2.20)

Coffs Harbour R4 #1 Reorganise (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.10)

Coffs Harbour R7 #2 Our Rendezvous (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.10/$1.50)

Mudgee R3 #4 Sheer Danger (win) LOSE (3rd)

Mudgee R7 #6 Ward (E/W 1x2) 1st ($4.70/$1.70)

Port Lincoln R2 #1 Chloborough (win) LOSE (U/P)

Port Lincoln R7 #1 Tintagel Rocker (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.80)

Moonee Valley R4 #4 Blazing Dragon (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.70)
Moonee Valley R6 #6 Magniloquent (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Harness racing tip: Melton R9 #3 Tallulah Bay (win)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R9 #1 Von Ryan (win)

NFL (week 14) for December 6

Houston Texans (2-10, 1-4 away) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9, 0-5 home); EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL; Friday, December 6, 12.30pm

Finding winners is rarely easy but the opening game of week 14 in the NFL is a genuine minefield. Two teams with a combined record of 5-19, a host without victory at home this season and a visiting team that has far more incentive to lose than win. Something’s gotta give! The Houston Texans' franchise-record losing streak is up to 10 games, and even this trip to Jacksonville no longer seems like an easy win for the defending AFC South champions. The Texans let one slip on Sunday, falling 34-31 to visiting New England after leading by 10 at halftime and being up by three in the fourth quarter. Houston did a lot of things right against the Patriots, including rushing for a franchise-record four touchdowns and scoring TDs on all three of its trips to the red zone. Quarterback Case Keenum has played fairly well despite being winless in six starts, passing for 1433 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and the ground game continues to produce even with Arian Foster on injured reserve. A minus-12 turnover margin contributes to their ranking 29th in scoring offence and 27th in scoring defence.

While the Texans are playing their way into contention for the top pick in next year's draft – they own the league's worst record at 2-10 – the Jaguars' chances of picking first are fading, as they're one of four teams at 3-9. Jacksonville has yet to win in front of its home crowd but has three straight games to try and change that, with Buffalo and Tennessee visiting the next two weeks. Jacksonville aims for its first three-game winning streak since 2010 as the league's last-ranked offence has shown signs of life recently. Chad Henne (pictured) has taken over the starting QB job for the remainder of the season and led the Jaguars on an 80-yard drive for the winning score against the Browns. The defense still ranks 30th in scoring and 25th in total yards but turned in a dominant performance in a 13-6 win at Houston two weeks ago. Jacksonville has recorded eight takeaways in the last four games, matching the total from its first eight contests. Short of the Jags shooting themselves in the foot, I like them as home dogs here with the ‘under’ also a strong lean.

Confirmed bet

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-27)

Lean

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars -43 $1.91 LOSE (20-27)

NHL for December 6

Chicago Blackhawks (20-5-4, 44 pts) @ Minnesota Wild (16-8-5, 37 pts), Xcel Energy Center, St Paul, MN, Friday, December 6, 12.10pm

The Chicago Blackhawks have been fantastic on the road this season. They’ve cashed in an impressive 11 of their 15 road games, have won six straight away games and have allowed just 10 goals in the process. They’ve also scored the most away goals this season (51).  As if that’s not enough, the Blackhawks are also 7-0-3 in their last 10 in Minnesota. The Blackhawks can follow their first loss in two weeks by matching the nearly half-century-old club record for consecutive road wins. However, they are coming off a 4-3 home loss to Dallas and Wild goalie Josh Harding (pictured) has been almost impossible to beat on home ice. Harding is an incredible 11-1-0 at home this season and he’s 3-0-0 with a 1.15 GAA in his past four against Chicago. Harding leads the league with a 1.45 GAA and he has yet to allow more than three goals in any of his 22 starts this season. His latest home win came in the team’s 2-0 victory over Philadelphia.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Minnesota Wild -5-5 (one unit @ $1.68) LOSE (3-4)

Other confirmed bets

12.10pm: New York Islanders (8-15-5, 21 pts) @ St Louis Blues (18-5-3, 39 pts) WIN NT (one unit @ $1.65) WIN (1-5) – the Blues return home after facing a pair of tough West Coast opponents and losing consecutive games in regulation for the first time. The prospects for a quick turnaround seem high as they meet the New York Islanders one of the NHL's worst road teams. The Blues’ 24 points at home tie them for the most in the Western Conference, and they’ve won four straight at Scottrade Center. New York has only scored more than two goals once during their seven-game slide.

11.40am: Boston Bruins (18-7-2, 38 pts) @ Montreal Canadiens (17-9-3, 37 pts) -5 (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (1-2) – these great NHL rivals head into their first match-up of the season as two of the hottest teams in the NHL and fighting for first place in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins will try to earn their 11th win in 14 games and maintain a slim lead over Montreal. The Canadiens, meanwhile, will seek to take over first place by extending their point streak to nine games and winning their fifth in a row at home. Goals will be a premium!

Adding – 11.10am: New York Rangers (14-14-0, 28 pts) @ Buffalo Sabres (6-20-2, 14 pts) -5 (one unit @ $1.77) WIN (3-1)

Adding – Grand Salami -54.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (59)

Leans

Dallas Stars @ Toronto Maple Leafs WIN $1.91 WIN (2-3)

Ottawa Senators WIN $2.00 @ Tampa Bay Lightning LOSE (1-3)

San Jose Sharks @ Pittsburgh Penguins WIN $1.87 WIN (1-5)

Carolina Hurricanes @ Nashville Predators WIN $1.74 LOSE (5-2)
Winnipeg Jets @ Florida Panthers WIN $1.87 WIN (2-5)
Colorado Avalanche WIN $1.80 @ Edmonton Oilers LOSE (2-8)

College Football (week 15) for December 6

AAC: 19 Louisville Cardinals (10-1, 6-1 AAC) @ Cincinnati Bearcats (9-2, 6-1 AAC), Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH, Friday, December 6, 11.30am

The superbly named Keg of Nails (pictured) will be on the line for the final time in the foreseeable future in this match-up between No. 19 Louisville and Cincinnati, along with the Bearcats’ slim hopes of reaching a BCS bowl. Each team can earn a share of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) title with a win and a UCF loss at SMU on Saturday. However, only Cincinnati has a chance at the league’s automatic BCS berth due to Louisville’s 38-35 home loss to the Knights on October 18. The Bearcats (9-2, 6-1 ACC), who don't play UCF this season, would need to finish higher than UCF in the final BCS standings. The Bearcats are bowl-eligible for the seventh time in eight years and carry a six-game winning streak into this showdown. Quarterback Brendon Kay recorded his fourth 300-yard passing game of the season on November 23, when Cincinnati posted 573 yards of total offence in a 24-17 victory at Houston. Defensive end Silverberry Mouhon has 8.5 sacks and linebacker Nick Temple has 11.0 tackles for a loss to lead the Bearcats, who rank eighth nationally in total defense at 302.4 yards per game.

Meanwhile, Louisville’s (10-1, 6-1) lone blemish remains its setback against the Knights, but the Cardinals will likely be heading to a much lesser bowl game. Cincinnati owns a 29-22 all-time edge with one tie in a series that first awarded the Keg of Nails trophy to its winner in 1929. However, it’s unclear when they’ll meet again with Louisville heading to the ACC and no future matchups currently scheduled. The Cardinals ended a four-game slide in the series with a 34-31 home win last year on a 30-yard field goal from John Wallace as time expired. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been named one of 10 finalists for the Manning Award after throwing for 3268 yards and 25 touchdowns, with only three interceptions. Louisville’s defence, ranked second in the country while allowing 242.5 yards per game, forced its 24th turnover in a 24-17 victory over Memphis on November 23. Linebacker Preston Brown has had a team-high 83 tackles while defensive end Marcus Smith leads the Cardinals with 12.5 sacks. Rain is predicted and with high stakes for the Bearcats, I’m expecting a low scoring grind with the hosts to prevail.

Confirmed bet

Louisville Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (31-24)

Lean

Louisville Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bearcats -50 ($1.91) LOSE (31-24)

NBA for December 6

Miami Heat (14-4, 5-2 away) @ Chicago Bulls (7-9, 5-1 home), United Center, Chicago, IL, Friday, December 6, 1.40pm

NBA best of the day: It’s a bizarre night in the NBA with more focus on the Knicks v Nets clash (a combined 8-26 for the season) than the other two games. I cannot recommend an investment on either of those teams – bit like choosing between typhoid and cholera – but happy to side with the Heat as they head into Chicago. Derrick Rose’s latest injury has sent the Bulls into a tailspin, and they will be trying to win for just the second time in eight games. Miami is opening up a four-game trip at Chicago that finishes with a stop at East-leading Indiana. The Bulls remained one of the strongest defensive teams in the league with Rose out for the 2012-13 season but are struggling on that end since the latest season-ending knee injury to Rose. Chicago showed some fight in a 131-128 triple-overtime home loss to the New Orleans Pelicans but were burned on the perimeter, where they allowed the Pelicans to knock down 11 3-pointers. Miami is among the league leaders in three-point efficiency, knocking down 41.1 percent from long range, and rattled in 11-of-20 from beyond the arc in a 107-95 home triumph over the Bulls in the season opener. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings while the ‘under’ is 11-5 in the past 16 contests in Chicago.

Miami Heat -4.5 @ Chicago Bulls (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (87-107)

Leans

New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets +190 $1.87 WIN (113-83)

Los Angeles Clippers WIN $1.95 @ Memphis Grizzlies WIN (101-81)

Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls +188.5 WIN (87-107)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.

Daily tips for December 5

What’s on today

It may be a random Thursday on the sports calendar but there’s still plenty of action highlighted by nine EPL games & I’m expecting Newcastle to leave Swansea with at least one point as my best of the day; San Antonio and Minnesota head to Mexico City as the most intriguing match-up on the eight-game NBA card; the Flyers head to injury-riddled Detroit in the pick of the three NHL games while the Second Ashes Test kicks-off at the Adelaide Oval with Australia leading the series (1-0).


Racing for December 5

Horse racing: Warrnambool (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Rockhampton (Qld), Pinjarra (WA), Queanbeyan (NSW). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Newcastle (NSW), Northam (WA), Penrith (NSW), Swan Hill (Vic). Greyhound racing: Angle Park (SA), Maitland (NSW), Warrnambool (Vic), Albion Park (Qld), Dapto (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Sandown Park (Vic), Shepparton (Vic), Traralgon (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Mandurah (WA).

Confirmed bets

Warrnambool R4 #6 Sevva Nights (win) 1st ($1.70)

Gosford R2 #7 Negociant (win) 1st ($1.30)

Gosford R8 #1 Target In Sight (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.60/$1.60)

Queanbeyan R3 #2 Oh So Adorable (win) 1st ($2.10)

Leans

Warrnambool R3 #3 Megamind (E/W) 2nd ($3.40)

Gosford R4 #4 Anfitrona (win) 1st ($2.60)

Gosford R6 #1 Southern Girl (win) LOSE (2nd)

Queanbeyan R5 #7 Kiss This (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Rockhampton R1 #2 Casino Benjo (win) 1st ($3.10)

Rockhampton R7 #5 Vandalised (win) 1st ($2.90)

Harness racing tip: Swan Hill R3 #4 Gollahman (win) 1st ($1.30)

Greyhound racing tip: Albion Park R3 #6 Surfin’ Kawati (win) LOSE (U/P)

NHL for December 5

Philadelphia Flyers (12-13-2, 26 pts) @ Detroit Red Wings (14-7-7, 35 pts), Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI, Thursday, December 5, 12.10pm

NHL best of the day: The Detroit Red Wings haven’t seemed to miss injured star Pavel Datsyuk lately, though they may be presented with a whole new set of challenges with Henrik Zetterberg out for an extended period of time. Zetterberg will miss at least the next two weeks, starting here against the Philadelphia Flyers as Detroit looks to extend its winning streak to five games. Datsyuk, who has a team-best 12 goals, has been sidelined for the past four contests due to a head injury and is doubtful for this. Zetterberg will miss time with a herniated disc. The forward, who leads the team with 30 points (11 goals, 18 assists) and is tied for first on the Wings at plus-12, could be out even longer. Philadelphia went 8-2-1 in its previous 11 before falling 2-0 to Minnesota in its second stop on a six-game road trip. It scored fewer than three non-shootout goals for the fifth straight time and its 57 goals are among the fewest in the league. Ray Emery made 19 saves Monday, but Steve Mason (6-1-1 with a 1.72 GAA in his last eight, pictured) could start this contest.

Philadelphia Flyers WIN @ Detroit Red Wings (one unit @ $2.13) WIN (6-3)

Leans

Montreal Canadiens @ New Jersey Devils -5 $1.80 LOSE (4-3)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Detroit Red Wings -5 $1.91 LOSE (6-3)

Phoenix Coyotes @ Calgary Flames +5.5 $1.80 LOSE (1-4)

NBA for December 5

Oklahoma City Thunder (13-3, 4-3 away) @ Portland Trail Blazers (15-3, 7-1 home), Moda Center, Portland, OR, Thursday, December 5, 2.10pm

NBA best of the day: After beating the NBA-best Indiana Pacers, the Portland Trail Blazers host another league powerhouse – Oklahoma City – here. Seeking a seventh straight home win, Portland is also out to avoid an eighth consecutive loss to the Thunder. The visitors have won eight in a row, most recently edging the Kings in Sacramento on Tuesday night. NBA leading scorer Kevin Durant led the Thunder with 27 points and 11 boards against Sacramento. Russell Westbrook, who has missed three games with knee issues, complements Durant's impressive totals, averaging 20.6 points for Oklahoma City. Serge Ibaka adds 13.9 points and a team-high 9.5 rebounds. Portland’s success against Indiana came despite a season-low five 3-pointers, as LaMarcus Aldridge became the focal point of the offense and the Blazers tied a season high with 29 successful free throw tries on 33 attempts. Aldridge leads Portland, averaging 22.7 points and 9.6 rebounds, while Damian Lillard adds 20.6 points and a team-high 5.7 assists. The Blazers are also among the top five teams in the league in proficiency from behind the arc. The key numbers favour Oklahoma City given Portland’s form in recent seasons, but the favourite is 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (104-111)

Other confirmed bets

11.40am: San Antonio Spurs (15-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (9-10) -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) POSTPONED – this is the NBA's 21st game south of the border but first in the regular season since Dallas faced Houston in 1997. This is the first time playing in Mexico for Minnesota and the fifth for San Antonio. The Timberwolves jumped out to a 5-2 start following a fourth consecutive last-place finish in the Northwest Division last season, but they’ve surrendered an average of 109.2 points on 51.6 per cent shooting while dropping four of five. The altitude in Mexico City won’t help the Wolves on defence either.

11.40am: Los Angeles Clippers (12-6, 4-4 away) @ Atlanta Hawks (9-10, 5-3 home) -202 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (97-107) – the Clippers make the first stop on a seven-game road trip in Atlanta against a Hawks’ line-up that has lost five of six. Los Angeles averages 100.5 points on the road as opposed to their 111.2 scoring average at the STAPLES Center. The Hawks managed more than 100 points in back-to-back games in Washington and San Antonio but had averaged 89.7 in its previous seven. I like the total to stay under the 202 points on offer.

12.10pm: Phoenix Suns (9-9, 4-6 away) @ Houston Rockets (13-6, 8-2 home) +212.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (97-88) – the Rockets go for their longest home winning streak in nearly three years. Houston was on a roll, winning five in a row and eight of nine before falling 109-103 at Western Conference-worst Utah. They’re 8-2 at the Toyota Center, winning six in a row while averaging 113.3 points and shooting 47.5 per cent from 3-point range. The Suns were woeful in the second half against Memphis yesterday but should be able to contribute enough to the send the total ‘over’ here.

Leans

Denver Nuggets -4 $1.91 @ Cleveland Cavaliers LOSE (88-98)

Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 $1.91 LOSE (105-98)

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans -207 $1.91 WIN (100-97)

Indiana Pacers -8 $1.91 @ Utah Jazz WIN (95-86)


Cricket (Ashes Series) for December 5-9

Second Test: Australia v England, Adelaide Oval (artist's impression of completed redevelopment ), Adelaide, Thursday, December 5, 11am

Much of the talk since Australia’s thrashing of England in the First Test has been about “the talk”. That’s a shame, as the focus should have been on the Aussies’ methodical and ruthless performance at the Gabba. However, it’s far too simplistic to assume that the win is a sea change in the never-ending battle between these two sides, further enforced with the departure of Jonathan Trott due to illness. While only three teams have come back after losing the First Test to win in Australia, there are plenty of reasons to believe England have it in them to become the fourth. England boasts a startling record in second Tests since Andy Flower took over in 2009. They have won 13, drawn four and lost only one of 18 second Tests. And even that defeat, to Pakistan in the UAE, was a game England dominated until the disastrous fourth innings when they were rolled for 72 chasing just 144 for a series-levelling victory. In nine second Tests following an opening defeat or draw, England have won five and drawn three. The drop-in pitch at Adelaide has been the subject of much speculation. Putting too much store in pre-match pitch assessment is foolish, but most reports expect a flat but dry surface. Coach Darren Lehmann’s decision to do away with the rotation policy means Australia enters this Test with an unchanged side, but I want to see consistency from the likes of Chris Rogers, Dave Warner, Shane Watson, George Bailey and Mitchell Johnson before playing the Aussies too heavily. While the draw is favoured with conditions expected to assist the batsmen, the brittle nature of Australia’s line-up and England’s ongoing struggle to reach 400 mean it’s there to be taken on.

Confirmed bet

Australia v England DNB (one unit @ $2.25)

Leans

Second Test top run scorer Michael Clarke (0.5 units @ $6.00)

Second Test top wicket taker James Anderson (0.5 units @ $7.50)

EPL for December 5

Swansea City (4-3-6, 15 pts) v Newcastle United (7-2-4, 23 pts), Liberty Stadium, Swansea, Wales, Thursday, December 5, 6.50am

EPL best of the day: It’s been a good few weeks for Newcastle, who travel to Swansea having won their past four Premier League fixtures. With seven goals scored and just two conceded last month, Newcastle will be confident of extending their unbeaten run against a Swansea side who haven’t been helped by injuries to key players including Michu and Wilfried Bony. Swans manager Michael Laudrup (pictured) must also decide whether first-choice keeper Michel Vorm is fit enough to return in place of Gerhard Tremmel. After a solid start to the season, the challenge of balancing EPL and Europa League campaigns appears to be stretching Swansea’s stocks. Newcastle have won four games in a row for the first time since April 2012, when they won six consecutive games en route to a fifth-place finish in the Premier League. Loic Remy has scored eight goals in his past nine Premier League appearances and also assisted a goal in the weekend victory over West Brom. Newcastle have also taken the lead in nine of their 13 Premier League games this season, going on to win seven of them. I can’t envisage the Magpies returning to the north-east without at least a point and, more likely, all three from this trip to Wales.

Swansea City v Newcastle United – double chance (one unit @ $1.67) LOSE (3-0)

Other confirmed bets

6.40am: Stoke City (3-4-6, 13 pts) v Cardiff City (3-4-6, 13 pts) -1.5 (one unit @ $3.00) WIN (0-0) – neither side is in great shape – Stoke has just one win from their last 10 Premier League matches while Cardiff has only one win from seven. There have been just five goals scored in the past five league games played at the Britannia Stadium. The sides have only met four times before in the top flight, with the most recent encounter a goalless draw at Stoke's Victoria Ground on February 14, 1953. A similar scoreline wouldn’t surprise, although I have a slight lean to the Bluebirds here.

6.40am: Southampton (6-4-3, 22 pts) v Aston Villa (4-4-5, 16 pts) double chance (one unit @ $2.15) WIN (2-3) – Back-to-back away defeats to Arsenal and Chelsea hardly spell crisis but Southampton go is in need of a result if they want to maintain their strong start to the campaign. However, in Villa they face a side who seemingly prefer to play away from home, one set up well to hit teams on the break with the likes of Gabby Agbonlahor providing pace aplenty. Third-choice keeper Paulo Gazzaniga starts for the Saints who will also l be without key midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin.

6.40am: Manchester United (6-4-3, 22 pts) v Everton (6-6-1, 24 pts) BTS (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (0-1) – It may be just another three points to play for, just another day at the office, but former Everton boss David Moyes would not be human if he didn't feel this was a special day. Manchester United have won 16 of 21 Premier League home games against Everton, with four matches drawn. But Roberto Martinez has already steered Everton into the top six and Romelu Lukaku is one of only three players to have scored a Premier League hat-trick against Manchester United.

Leans

Liverpool v Norwich City +3.5 $2.35 WIN (5-1)

Manchester United v Everton (double chance) $2.15 WIN (0-1)

Arsenal -1 $1.60 v Hull City WIN (2-0)

Stoke City v Cardiff City (0-1) $9.00 LOSE (0-0)

Sunderland v Chelsea -1 $2.45 PUSH (3-4)

Swansea City v Newcastle United WIN $3.30 LOSE (3-0)

Fulham v Tottenham Hotspur WIN $1.67 WIN (1-2)
West Bromwich Albion v Manchester City WIN $1.62 WIN (2-3)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.