Daily tips for November 6

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Entertainment (Big Brother finale) for November 6

Big Brother, Nine Network, Wednesday, November 6, 7.30pm

Tonight Australia will decide which of the three remaining Big Brother housemates takes home $250,000 and bragging rights as the winner of the Nine Network reality show. Those following the fortunes of the 16 mostly-pretty young things taking part in the show will know that competition is tight between the final three – Tim, Tahan and Jade. The most refreshing thing about this cycle is the fact that several housemates are happy to admit they are there for the cash. Unlike so many before them Tim and Tahan have not tried to convince Australia that they entered the house to “find themselves” and “be part of the journey”.  Even nice girl Jade has eluded to her hopes that being on the show will kick start a modelling career. As of Monday night only 2.5 per cent of votes separated the trio. Tim should win. He has played the game ruthlessly and his Machiavellian schemes and rock-inspired eviction predictions have both enlightened and entertained. He also has the advantage of being male.

Australia has only three female winners in nine seasons of Big Brother. And none of them have been glamazons. Instead, the girls who have finished on top have been the fish and chip shop owner from Tassie (Reggie Bird), a hairdresser (Aleisha Cowcher) and a 52-year-old check out chick (Terri Munro). If a woman does take the title this year it will be Tahan. The part-time model has survived more evictions than any other housemate and she also has the support of her boyfriend V8 Supercar driver David Reynolds. Reynolds has more than 10,000 followers on Twitter and he has been urging them to vote for Tahan. Jade, the hopeless romantic who has spent most of her time in the house trying to secure the affections of fellow housemate Ed, is the dark horse. If she had more time Jade could well overtake both Tahan and Tim. Her confidence and likeability have grown noticeably since the eviction of her paramour. But time has run out, and it looks like the curly-haired larrikin will be $250,000 richer. (Preview by Lucy Callander)

Confirmed bet

Tim WIN (two units @ $1.65) WIN

Racing for November 6

Today’s highlight

Kyneton R7 $100,000 NMIT Kyneton Cup (2000m, handicap)

Horse racing: Kyneton (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Port Lincoln (SA), Ipswich (Qld), Launceston (Tas – night). Harness racing: Yarra Valley (Vic), Swan Hill (Vic), Gloucester Park (WA). Greyhound racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Mandurah (WA), Ipswich (Qld), Lismore (NSW), Sale (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Townsville (Qld).

Kyneton Park is one of the most picturesque racecourses in Australia, with century-old elms and oak trees forming the backdrop on the banks of the Campaspe River. Kyneton Cup Day also holds an ideal spot on the country racing calendar – position between Cup and Oaks days, and located just over an hour’s drive north-west of Melbourne. Throw in a fine, warm day with the mercury set to top 30C, and it looks like a perfect day for the $100,000 NMIT Kyneton Cup. The race looks ready-made for David Hayes’ 5yo gelding #2 Whisper Downs. He’s fifth-up for the spring after a last start sixth of 13 at Moonee Valley (1.5L back) over 2040m on Cox Plate Day. Coincidentally, Cox Plate winning jockey Chad Schofield stays in the saddle and will be looking to position up slightly further forward although the pace will be better here. Hard to knock #1 Hurdy Gurdy Man after winning two of his last three, but I’ll stick with Whisper Downs.

Confirmed bets

Kyneton R5 #6 Godspiel (win) 1st ($3.20)

Kyneton R7 #2 Whisper Downs (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.40)

Grafton R4 #8 Little Doc (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Leans

Kyneton R4 #9 Runes (win) 1st ($1.80)

Kyneton R9 #15 Oasis Rose (E/W) 1st ($10.40/$2.40)

Grafton R5 #5 Padre Pio (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Grafton R6 #8 Strawberrychampane (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Port Lincoln R4 #6 Social Assassin (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Port Lincoln R5 #1 Extreme Value (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.20/$1.50)

Ipswich R1 #6 Love You Libby (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Ipswich R3 #6 Missing Page (E/W) 1st ($3.60/$2.10)

College Football (week 11) for November 6

MAC: Bowling Green Falcons (5-3, 3-1 MAC) @ Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (0-8, 0-4 MAC), Yager Stadium, Oxford, OH, Wednesday, November 6, noon

Coming off back-to-back heart wrenching losses to Mississippi State and Toledo, the Bowling Green Falcons need to respond here. Miami of Ohio presents a golden opportunity for that as the Mid-American Conference rivals at Yager Stadium. Bowling Green dropped both games by a combined four points, but should respond well against a RedHawks team still looking for its first win of the season. The Falcons fell behind 21-0 to Toledo in its previous game, then roared back to score 25 straight points before allowing Terrance Owens' go-ahead 11-yard touchdown pass to Alonzo Russell with 1:22 remaining. Despite the setback, Bowling Green remains in the hunt for the MAC East title. No such aspirations exist for Miami (Ohio), which was thumped 41-16 in Ohio 10 days ago and is averaging a paltry 10.9 points per game. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games when facing teams with losing home records. Bowling Green are also just one win away from bowl eligibility and could go on to feature prominently.

While the defence gets most of the attention – and rightfully so – sophomore quarterback Matt Johnson (pictured) is quietly putting together a terrific season. Johnson has thrown for 1827 yards (good for fourth in the conference) and while he has just nine touchdown passes, he has been only been picked off three times. Travis Greene has also been solid offensively, ranked third in the MAC with 906 rushing yards. The numbers are bad across the board for the RedHawks, who are one of only a handful of winless teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. Miami ranks dead last in the 13-team conference in total yards per game at 228.1 – 60 fewer than the closest team (Massachusetts) and more than 100 fewer than 11th-place Central Michigan. Quarterback Austin Boucher has thrown at least one TD pass in five straight games. The RedHawks are a lousy 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight conference games while the ‘under’ is 12-3 in Miami's last 15 games following a SU win.

Confirmed bet

Bowling Green @ Miami-Ohio -48.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (45-3)

Leans

Bowling Green -23.5 @ Miami-Ohio WIN (45-3)

Ohio +4 @ Buffalo LOSE (3-30)

NHL for November 6

Calgary Flames (6-6-2, 14pts) @ Minnesota Wild (8-4-3, 19pts), Xcel Energy Center, Saint Paul, MN, Wednesday, November 6, 12.10pm

The Minnesota Wild have found a winning rhythm and look to continue the roll behind the high-scoring Jason Pominville (pictured) and rejuvenated goaltender Josh Harding as they seek a sixth win in seven games against a Calgary Flames team that will be trying yet again to string two wins together. Pominville has helped Minnesota put its lacklustre 3-3-3 start in the past by scoring seven of his team-high 10 goals in the last six games with the Wild (8-4-3) winning five times. The NHL’s first star of the week had a goal and an assist in Sunday’s 4-0 win over New Jersey, giving him six goals and two assists in his last four contests. Harding stopped 19 shots in his second shutout of the season to improve to 7-2-1 with a 1.10 goals-against average. The Wild have also won six of seven at home and will try to wrap up a four-game stay at the Xcel Energy Center with a fifth victory in the last seven match-ups with Calgary (6-6-2).

For its entire history, Minnesota considered Calgary a division rival in the old Northwest Division. But the NHL’s realignment for the 2013-14 season has separated the two franchises. Tuesday night will be the first game between the now former division rivals since the League’s most recent realignment. The Flames were not expected to be a factor in the Stanley Cup Playoff race this season, but Calgary sits in sixth place in the loaded Pacific Division and its .500 record. The Flames have lost six of nine, but earned a 3-2 overtime victory in Chicago on Sunday. Reto Berra made 42 saves in his NHL debut for Calgary, which hasn’t won two in a row since October 9-11. Kris Russell’s game-winner gave the defenseman two goals and three assists in his last four contests. Harding has a 1.94 GAA in his last two starts against the Flames, but Backstrom was in net for all five match-ups last season, going 3-2-0 with a 1.98 GAA. Calgary winger Jiri Hudler had three goals against Minnesota last season.

Confirmed bets

Calgary Flames @ Minnesota Wild WIN NT (1.5 units @ $1.80) WIN (1-5)

Ottawa Senators @ Columbus Blue Jackets -5.5 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (4-1)

Philadelphia Flyers WIN @ Carolina Hurricanes (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (1-2)

Leans

Dallas Stars @ Boston Bruins 1P -1.5 $1.74 LOSE (1-1)

New York Islanders WIN $2.10 LOSE @ Washington Capitals +5.5 $1.80 WIN (2-6)

St Louis Blues WIN $1.83 @ Montreal Canadiens WIN (3-2)

Edmonton Oilers WIN $2.10 @ Florida Panthers WIN (4-3)

Philadelphia Flyers @ Carolina Hurricanes +5 $1.72 LOSE (1-2)

Calgary Flames @ Minnesota Wild -5.5 $1.72 LOSE (1-5)

Vancouver Canucks @ Phoenix Coyotes WIN $1.87 WIN (2-3)

Buffalo Sabres @ San Jose Sharks -1.5 $1.87 LOSE (5-4)

NBA for November 6

Phoenix Suns (2-1, 0-1 away) @ New Orleans Pelicans (1-2, 1-1 home), New Orleans Arena, New Orleans, LA, Wednesday, November 6, 12.10pm

The Hornets are no more. Before the start of the 2013-14 NBA season, the New Orleans franchise took the decision to distance itself from the name it brought from Charlotte. Somehow, they came up with the best name carried by a professional sports team in the USA – the Pelicans! With the new name comes an emerging NBA superstar in Anthony Davis (pictured) looks to continue his impressive play when the Pelicans host the Suns. After posting good, but hardly elite, numbers while batting several injuries during his 2012-13 rookie season, Davis appears to have taken a big step forward in his second year in the league. He’s averaging 23.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 2.7 steals while making 19 of 20 free throws. Davis is coming off arguably the most complete effort of his career, posting 25 points and eight rebounds along with career highs of six blocks and six steals in a 105-84 win over Charlotte on Saturday. The Pelicans clamped down defensively after dropping their first two games, limiting the Bobcats to 37.5 per cent shooting.

New Orleans is seeking a third straight win over Phoenix (2-1) after taking the last match-up 95-92 on April 7 behind 20 points from Davis. After beating Portland and Utah at home, the Suns opened a three-game road swing with a 103-96 loss to Oklahoma City on Sunday. Eric Bledsoe had 26 points and a career-high 14 assists but also committed a career-worst eight turnovers for Phoenix, which was outscored 36-26 in the fourth quarter. The Suns held a 24-14 edge in transition but were outscored 46-18 in the paint. Big man Miles Plumlee, who tallied 31 points and 28 rebounds in the first two games, went scoreless and pulled down five boards after picking up a couple of early fouls. Bledsoe is averaging 22.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 8.7 assists and 5.7 turnovers. As evidence by their efficiency running the fast break, the Suns still like to run. But under coach Jeff Hornacek, who became the first Suns coach to win his first two games, the Suns are playing better defense. Through three games the Suns' opponents are shooting less than 40 per cent from the field.

Confirmed bets

Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans -9 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (104-98)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks +213.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (104-123)

Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers WIN (one unit @ $1.83) LOSE (116-101)

Leans

Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors +5.5 $1.91 LOSE (104-95)

Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets -10 $1.91 WIN +190 $1.91 WIN (88-104)

Indiana Pacers WIN $1.87 @ Detroit Pistons WIN (99-91)

Charlotte Bobcats @ New York Knicks -9 $1.91 LOSE (102-97)

San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets +201 $1.91 LOSE (102-94)

Football (UCL matchday 4) for November 6

Group D: Paris St Germain v RSC Anderlecht, Parc des Princes, Paris, France, Wednesday, November 6, 6.45am

What threatened to turn into another rout has now attracted some interest with news that Paris Saint-Germain will be without the in-form strike duo of Zlatan Ibrahimovic (pictured) and Edinson Cavani as they aim to qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League with victory over Anderlecht. Should the Belgians, who are still pointless in Group C, suffer defeat at the Parc des Princes then PSG will progress to the last 16 irrespective of what happens between Olympiacos and Benfica. Three emphatic wins have brought the French champions to this enviable position, but they would certainly have found life harder if not for the exploits of Sweden striker Ibrahimovic, who became only the 10th player to score four goals in a Champions League match during the 5-0 triumph in Brussels. He felt discomfort in his knee after Friday’s 4-0 Ligue 1 win over Lorient, however, while Cavani was hit in the leg during the same game. The Uruguayan has scored 11 goals since arriving from Napoli in the summer and neither player will be risked by PSG coach Laurent Blanc.

Anderlecht take a 3-1 league win over OH Leuven into this daunting encounter (Leuven ended the match with nine men while it was the first time since August 25 that Anderlecht had won twice in a row, after beating KV Oostende 3-0 away the previous Wednesday). He is trying to stay positive, but coach John van den Brom knows it will be a case of damage limitation in Paris. “In football every team plays to win and that's what PSG will do tomorrow – they won't show any mercy. After three matches it's going to be very difficult for us to qualify, but anything is possible in football. It's important for us to make amends for the first leg,” van den Brom said. To add insult to injury, top scorer Matias Suarez has been ruled out for the rest of the season with cruciate knee ligament damage. Right-back Guillaume Gillet, meanwhile, is doubtful after cutting his knee last month. Anderlecht are aiming to avoid a sixth straight fourth-place group finish since progressing in 2000-01.

Confirmed bets

Paris St Germain TT +2.5 v RSC Anderlecht (two units @ $1.62) LOSE (1-1)

FC Copenhagen v Galatasaray BTS (one unit @ $1.65) LOSE (1-0)

Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayer Leverkusen – double chance (one unit @ $1.62) WIN (0-0)

Leans

FC Copenhagen v Galatasaray WIN $2.30 LOSE (1-0)

Real Sociedad v Manchester United BTS $1.67 LOSE (0-0)

Juventus DNB v Real Madrid $1.70 WIN (2-2)

Manchester City -2 v CSKA Moscow $1.75 WIN (5-2)

Olympiacos v Benfica DRAW $3.10 LOSE (1-0)

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