Daily tips for November 5

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing (Melbourne Cup Day) for November 5

Today’s highlights

Flemington R1 G3 $120,000 7News Stakes (1000m, set weights, 2yo fillies)

Flemington R4 G3 $200,000 Lavazza Short Black (1400m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)

Flemington R7 G1 $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m, handicap)

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Ascot (WA), Gold Coast (Qld), Kembla Grange (NSW), Sunshine Coast (Qld), Echuca (Vic), Muswellbrook (NSW), Bunbury (WA), Pioneer Park (NT), Darwin (NT), Canberra (ACT). Harness racing: Gloucester Park (WA), Swan Hill (Vic), Yarra Valley (Vic). Greyhound racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Gosford (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Lismore (NSW), Mandurah (WA), Sale (Vic), Townsville (Qld).

Fancy joining in the Melbourne Cup fun and frivolity today? In addition to the TAB meetings listed above, there are also races today in NSW (Albury, Coffs Harbour, Corowa, Dubbo, Murwillumbah, Muswellbrook, Nowra, Orange, Sapphire Coast, Tamworth, Taree, Wagga, Wentworth), Victoria (Bairnsdale, Mansfield, Mildura, Stawell, Wangaratta), Queensland (Bundaberg, Cairns, Charleville, Gatton, Gladstone, Kumbia, Longreach, Mackay, Mount Isa, Rockhampton, Townsville), WA (Geraldton) and Tasmania (Hobart). For those keen on a punt at Flemington today, I advise caution. There are always huge fields on Cup Day (those owners’ tickets are highly sought after today) but at least we’re assured good value!

Confirmed bets

Flemington R3 #1 Opinion (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R6 #3 Moderate (win) 1st ($2.00)
Flemington R7 #6 Fiorente (win) 1st ($7.00)
Flemington R7 #10 Fawkner (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Randwick R3 #9 Abbasso (E/W) LOSE (4th)
Ascot R9 #11 Apocalypse Now (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.40)

Leans

Flemington R1 #9 Oakleigh Girl (E/W 1x2) 1st ($5.60/$2.00)
Flemington R2 #7 Notice Received (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R4 #1 Arinosa (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.50)
Flemington R5 #12 Selectify (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R8 #5 Salon Soldier (win) 1st ($2.80)
Flemington R9 #4 Amaethon (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Randwick R4 #4 Golden Aro (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Randwick R6 #9 Another Prayer (E/W) 3rd ($3.80)
Randwick R9 #9 Year Of The Dragon (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Doomben R5 #2 Tricky Rocket (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)
Doomben R7 #1 Written Above All (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.10/$1.70)
Morphettville R3 #2 Big On Bling (win) 1st ($1.65)
Morphettville R6 #5 Weekend Hussy (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.80/$1.90)

NFL (week 9) for November 5

Chicago Bears (4-3, 1-2 away) @ Green Bay Packers (5-2, 3-0 home), Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI, Tuesday, November 5, 12.40pm

Aaron Rodgers (pictured) and the Green Bay Packers have been in ominous form over the past month and seek a fifth consecutive victory when they face the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field for Monday Night Football. The hot streak has propelled the Packers to the top of the NFC North, a half-game ahead of Detroit and one in front of the Bears, who have not won in Green Bay since December 2008. The Packers have dominated their oldest rival in recent years behind Rodgers, winning the past six match-ups. Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns against four interceptions and has received a boost from the running game, which produced 182 rushing yards in last week’s 44-31 rout of Minnesota. Rookie Eddie Lacy had a career-high 29 carries and has toted the ball at least 22 times in the past four games. Rodgers is 5-0 lifetime at home against Chicago while the favourite is 5-0 ATS in the past five. Despite the Packers’ offensive clout, the ‘under’ is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings and 7-2 in the Packers last nine against NFC North opposition.

Chicago's task is that much more daunting with journeyman Josh McCown set to start in place of Jay Cutler, who suffered a groin injury in a 45-41 loss at Washington prior to last week's bye. McCown acquitted himself well in relief of Cutler, throwing for 204 yards and a TD, and did make a start in Green Bay in December 2011. The Bears also have major concerns on the other side of the ball, ranking 29th in the league in points allowed (29.4). Bears LB Lance Briggs (shoulder), a seven-time Pro Bowler, is out, putting more pressure on a unit that is 27th in total defense at 391.0 yards per game allowed. McCown's last appearance against the Packers was his first start in four years after he was signed off waivers, so Chicago is confident he is more equipped to handle this assignment. Running back Matt Forte rushed for 91 yards and a career-high three TDs versus Washington but has averaged only 44.4 yards rushing in the last five against the Packers.

Confirmed bets

Game total -51.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (27-20)

Aaron Rodgers passing yards -288.5 (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (27)

Leans

Chicago Bears +10 @ Green Bay Packers $1.95 WIN (27-20)

Chicago Bears TT -20.5 @ Green Bay Packers $1.87 LOSE (27-20)

NHL for November 5

Anaheim Ducks (11-3-1, 23pts) @ New York Rangers (6-7-0, 12pts), Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, Tuesday, November 5, 11.40am

The Anaheim Ducks haven’t visited the Big Apple for two years where they’ll take on a Rangers side aiming for a fourth straight win. Since returning from nine-game road trip, New York (6-7-0) has won three of four including two at home. The Rangers are in position to reach .500 for the first time since the second game of the year. The turnaround can be traced to an improved power play and the first offensive contributions of the year from some top players. Derek Stepan (pictured) scored his first three goals of the season in Saturday’s 5-1 win over Carolina, which was New York’s first game scoring more than three goals. Carl Hagelin netted his first two in his third game since returning from injured reserve. The Rangers’ power play is 4 of 11 in three games after scoring five times on 32 opportunities. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has stopped 56 of 57 shots in the last two but allowed six goals on 37 shots in a 6-0 loss at Anaheim on October 10.

The Ducks (11-3-1) haven’t lost in regulation since October 24 at Montreal. They’re 4-0-1 since and can pull ahead of San Jose for sole possession of first place in the Pacific Division with another road point as they complete a season-long eight-game trip. The Ducks scored five straight goals after a slow first period in Saturday’s 6-3 win at Buffalo. Corey Perry scored his team-leading seventh and eighth goals of the season. They’ve climbed to the top of the division with little credit to their special teams. Their power play is last in the league at 6.9 per cent while their penalty kill is among the worst at 73.5 per cent. "If ever we can get this power play going, we'll be an elite team in this league," Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf said. The Ducks haven’t visited the Rangers since November 3, 2011, a 2-1 shootout loss. They’ve lost three straight at Madison Square Garden since a 4-1 win on February 7, 2008.

Confirmed bets

Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers -5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (2-1)

Grand Salami -10.5 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (9)

Leans

Anaheim Ducks @ New York Rangers WIN $1.83 LOSE (2-1)

Detroit Red Wings WIN $1.70 @ Winnipeg Jets LOSE (3-4)

NBA for November 5

Houston Rockets (3-0, 1-0 away) @ Los Angeles Clippers (2-1, 1-0 home), STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Tuesday, November 5, 2.40pm

Dwight Howard didn’t have to wait long for a trip back to Los Angeles after leaving the Lakers for Houston as the Rockets take on the Clippers. And it hasn't taken long for Howard to make his presence felt with Houston (3-0), which has surrendered 93.7 points per game thus far, significantly better than last season's mark of 102.5. Howard is averaging 15.0 points, 17.0 rebounds and 1.7 blocks for the Rockets, who are limiting opponents to 38.7 percent shooting. The All-Star center averaged 19.3 points on 60.0 per cent shooting and 3.0 blocks in four losses against the Clippers last season while with the Lakers. Point guard Chris Paul (pictured) recorded three consecutive double-doubles while helping Los Angeles to a 2-1 start. With Howard teamed with seven-footer Omer Asik in the Rockets’ starting line-up, the Clippers duo of center DeAndre Jordan and power forward Blake Griffin will have their work cut out here. Griffin has put together consecutive 20-point, 10-rebound games and Jordan typically gets up for the battle with his good friend Howard.

Two significant things happened in the 104-93 victory over Utah – Houston rallied from a 16-point half-time deficit to win by double digits in the second game of a back-to-back and forward Chandler Parsons displayed last season’s form. Parsons averaged 9.5 points on 7-of-19 shooting over the first two games before contributing 24 points, 12 rebounds and six assists against the Jazz. Los Angeles played away from the Staples Center for the first time on Saturday when it defeated the Sacramento Kings. Clippers guard Jamal Crawford (1544) is three 3-pointers away from passing Eddie Jones (1546 from 1994-2008) and moving into 15th on the all-time list. While the ‘under’ is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Los Angeles, the ‘over’ looks a safer way to go here. While the Clippers are clicking offensively, they have surrendered 110.7 points per game, an area they know needs improvement going forward. The Rockets are 15-4 ATS in the past 19 meetings in Los Angeles while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

Confirmed bets

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers +207.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (118-137)

Boston Celtics +11.5 @ Memphis Grizzlies (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (88-95)

Leans

Golden State Warriors @ Philadelphia 76ers +7 $1.91 LOSE (110-90)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Cleveland Cavaliers +195 $1.91 LOSE (92-93)

Boston Celtics @ Memphis Grizzlies -187 $1.91 WIN (88-95)

Houston Rockets +6 @ Los Angeles Clippers $1.91 LOSE (118-137)

Rugby League (World Cup) for November 5

Group B: Papua New Guinea v Samoa, MS3 Craven Park, Hull, England, Tuesday, November 5, 7am

Papua New Guinea’s hopes of advancing past the group stages of the Rugby League World Cup took a major blow when they blew a winnable game against France 9-8 last week, while Samoa (pictured) slept through the opening 20 minutes of their 42-24 defeat to group favourites New Zealand. In one of the quirks of the draw, only the fourth (and last) team in Group B misses out on a quarter final birth, meaning one of these two teams are all but out of the tournament should they lose their second game in a row.  Defeat would just about spell the end for Adrian Lam’s men, who will have just a four-day turnaround before their final group clash against current world champions New Zealand. It would be a cruel way for the Kumuls to bow out of the tournament, given they lost all three games of their 2008 World Cup campaign and spent plenty of cash on a local rugby league academy that included high performance director Mal Meninga.

Samoa, on the other hand, have the advantage of having a week to recover until their third match against France in Perpignan, giving them one final chance to grab that crucial third spot on for-and-against should they lose. Victory for either side would ease the pressure. The Kumuls received a boost ahead of this game with former NRL hooker Paul Aiton successfully appealing a one-match ban for his high shot on French fullback Morgan Escare. Star fullback David Mead might have missed the game-winning goal moments before the final siren, but his 229m output against the French was by far the most of any player through the first round of games in the tournament. As far as the intimidation factor goes, there’s no duo more menacing than Samoa’s front row pairing of Suaia Matagi and Mose Masoe. Both have the ability to turn a game with a run or hit. Their mouth-watering clash against the always-physical Kumuls’ pack is worth watching this game alone.

Confirmed bet

Papua New Guinea +14.5 v Samoa (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (4-38)

Racing (Melbourne Cup) for November 5

Flemington R7 G1 $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m, handicap), Tuesday, November 5, 3pm

What’s your favourite Melbourne Cup moment? I have two – watching Bob Skelton plough through the mud to win the 1976 Melbourne Cup aboard Van Der Hum and sharing in the history of Makybe Diva’s third successive Cup triumph in 2005. There’s a new story added to race folklore each year. Will it be a first victory for Gai Waterhouse (pictured with her top chance Fiorente)? Will Luca Cumani’s horror run finally end thanks to Mount Athos or will his Cup record read 0-12 after tomorrow? Sadly, for most, the dream of winning the Melbourne Cup is just that – a mirage that lures contenders from Europe each year. As I highlighted in a post yesterday (here), the profile of a Melbourne Cup winner is surprisingly narrow. For the purposes of this preview, I’m focusing on three: 1) ran a personal best last start; 2) fifth-up for this preparation; and 3) had a brief preparation in the autumn.

Over the past 20 years, only two have ticked all three boxes – 1995 winner Doriemus and 2003 winner Makybe Diva. Amazingly, there are two horses in this year’s field that meet all the criteria, and they’re my two tips. Former Irish stayer #6 Fiorente was runner-up in last year’s Cup on a limited preparation but has enjoyed a complete 12 months under Gai Waterhouse’s watch with the target always the 2013 Melbourne Cup. The 6yo entire’s runs this spring have included victory in the Feehan States at Moonee Valley on September 14 and a strong third in the Cox Plate. Given a better barrier, he’d probably have won. Strong WFA horses are generally well weighted under handicap conditions (he’s carrying 55kg down from 59kg in the Cox Plate), while Damien Oliver lands this plum ride and jumps from barrier 5.

The other logical tip is Caulfield Cup winner #10 Fawkner, one of the six runners for Team Williams which includes 2012 winner Green Moon. He’s stepped up nicely throughout the spring, from 1400m to 1600m, 2000m and the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup in which the 6yo gelding posted a personal best. Nicholas Hall will actually carry 0.5kg less than the Caulfield Cup here and will get every chance from barrier 8. With victory here, Fawkner would become the 12th horse to complete the Caulfield-Melbourne Cup double and first since Ethereal in 2001. Best of all, I have both horses rated over their current prices (Fiorente $7 – rated $5.50; Fawkner $16 – rated $10). Of the rest, #8 Dandino stands far and away above any of the internationals, having had that important start in Australia under his belt while achieving a PB rating in finishing second to Fawkner in the Caulfield Cup.

I’m sure readers will scoff at much of the information outlined above given the coverage given to other horses in recent days and weeks. Let me start with the international runners – the media corps camped out at Werribee appear to suffer from the same ailment each spring. We call it 'Sandown Syndrome' (the horses were quarantined at Sandown until 2011). Watching these leading European contenders in work, it’s easy to be seduced by their appearance and impressive northern hemisphere records. There is no greater victim of 'Sandown Syndrome' than media darling Francesca Cumani, daughter of perennial visitor Luca Cumani. With a completely straight face and not a word of opposition from the panel at today’s Call of the Card, Ms Cumani picked a trifecta of internationals – none of which have had that essential lead-up run in Australia. Good luck with that.

Of the locals, it’s a middling bunch on offer this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see #22 Dear Demi run a big race after her giant runs in the Caulfield Cup (third) and the MacKinnon on Saturday (second). Owned by John Singleton, trained by Clarry Connors and ridden by Chris Munce, the 4yo mare will carry just 51kg from barrier 16. Her runs have been well spaced this spring but I’m concerned she’s had a long hard campaign. The others are either unproven at 3200 metres or lack the class of the better local horses. And if there’s one horse to lay, it has to be #15 Mount Athos. He’s the best-rated horse in the field but is well below the form that took him to fifth last year. I keep coming back to that record of one win in 67 attempts for the overseas horses without a start in Australia.

Suggested bets

Flemington R7 #6 Fiorente (win) 1st ($7.00)
Flemington R7 #10 Fawkner (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Leans

Flemington R7 #8 Dandino (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Flemington R7 #22 Dear Demi (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

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