Daily tips for November 18

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 18

Horse racing: Wangaratta (Vic), Moruya (NSW), Tamworth (NSW). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Globe Derby (SA), Gloucester Park (WA), Newcastle (NSW – abandoned), Stawell (Vic). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Angle Park (SA), Ballarat (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Geelong (Vic), Grafton (NSW), Launceston (Tas), Northam (WA), Nowra (NSW), Shepparton (Vic).

• I’m taking a breather this afternoon so there’ll be no tips posted for today’s meetings.

NHL for November 18

Winnipeg Jets (9-9-2, 20pts) @ Minnesota Wild (12-4-4, 28pts), Xcel Energy Center, St Paul, MN, Monday, November 18, 12.10pm

The Minnesota Wild have been one of the most consistent winners for punters so far this season and there’s no reason to dismount the bandwagon just yet. Riding a seven-game point streak, the Wild look to win six straight at home for the first time in two seasons against a surprising Winnipeg Jets team aiming for a fifth consecutive victory overall. Charlie Coyle scored the tiebreaker with 8:22 remaining in regulation as Minnesota (12-4-4) overcame blowing a two-goal lead to beat Florida 3-2 on Friday. The Wild have earned at least one point in 11 of 12 games and are 6-0-1 since a 5-1 home loss to Chicago on October 28. That remains Minnesota's only regulation defeat at the Xcel Energy Center, where it's 9-1-2 and has won five in a row. Thanks to the play of goalie Josh Harding (pictured), the Wild are in position to win six straight in St Paul for the first time since October 29-November 23, 2011. Harding made 22 saves Friday to improve to 9-0-0 with a 1.17 goals-against average at home. His 1.26 GAA is the lowest in the NHL.

Harding has helped Minnesota earn its most points (28) in franchise history through 20 games. Each of the Wild’s last four games overall have been decided by one goal. Harding faced only 15 shots as Minnesota snapped a 0-3-1 slide to Winnipeg with a 2-1 home victory October 10. Bryan Little scored on the power play for the Jets (10-9-2). Winnipeg went 2 for 53 over the next 16 games with the man advantage before defenseman and Minnesota native Dustin Byfuglien scored two power-play goals during Friday’s 3-2 home shootout victory over Philadelphia. The Jets rank near the bottom of the NHL converting 10.7 per cent of their power-play chances, but hope Friday’s effort will be the start of good things to come. Riding its most successful stretch of the season, Winnipeg has won its last three contests in a shootout. Two of its three victories in eight road games this season have come the same way. Captain Andrew Ladd is second on the team with 17 points (five goals, 12 assists), but recorded none in his last three versus Minnesota.

Confirmed bets

Winnipeg Jets @ Minnesota Wild WIN NT (one unit @ $1.88) WIN (1-2)

St Louis Blues @ Washington Capitals WIN (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (1-4)

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Ottawa Senators -5.5 (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (4-1)

Leans

St Louis Blues @ Washington Capitals TT +2.5 $1.88 WIN (1-4)

Los Angeles Kings WIN $2.00 @ New York Rangers WIN (1-0)

San Jose Sharks @ Chicago Bears 1P -1.5 $1.95 WIN (0-1)

Dallas Stars WIN $2.38 @ Vancouver Canucks WIN (2-1)

Winnipeg Jets @ Minnesota Wild -5 $1.95 WIN (1-2)

NBA for November 18

Detroit Pistons (3-5, 1-3 away) @ Los Angeles Lakers (4-7, 3-3 home), STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Monday, November 18, 1.40pm

The stumbling Lakers haven’t been able to get on track without Kobe Bryant but have plenty of favours as they host Detroit in LA. The Detroit Pistons finally put it all together in a big win their last time out at Sacramento, but the Pistons are an astounding 2-38 in their last 40 road games against Western Conference foes. Los Angeles (4-7) has had a rough go of it, dropping four of its last five and into fourth place in the Pacific Division. The Lakers, giving up 104.3 points per game to rank near the bottom of the NBA, are also averaging just 98.1 on 42.0 per cent shooting – significantly lower than last season’s marks of 102.2 and 45.8 per cent. Bryant returned to practice Saturday for the first time since he tore his Achilles seven months ago and went through some light drills, but there is still no timetable for his return. The Lakers’ woes continued on Friday in an 89-86 loss to Memphis. Jodie Meeks (pictured) scored a season-high 25 on 10-of-16 from the field and Nick Young added 18 off the bench, but LA was outrebounded 51-40 and went just 6 of 11 from the foul line.

The Lakers, who have already been held to 90 points or fewer in four games, dropped to 1-6 when failing to reach 100. They will try to bounce back against the Pistons (3-5), who have dropped seven of eight in the series, including three straight road match-ups by an average of 22.3 points. Pau Gasol, who had 23 points and 10 rebounds in a 98-97 victory at Detroit on February 3, has scored at least 20 in four of the last five meetings. The Pistons gave up an average of 110.0 points during a four-game losing streak before pulling out a 97-90 win at Sacramento on Friday. Josh Smith led the way with 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, five steals and four blocks. Andre Drummond also came up big with 15 points and a career high-tying 18 boards to help the Pistons win for the first time in four road contests. Brandon Jennings added 11 points and nine assists. The Pistons are not great defensive team and given this is the last game of their road trip, I’m expecting the total to sail over the posted number of 203.5.

Confirmed bets

Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers +203.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (99-114)

Leans

Portland Trail Blazers +2 @ Toronto Raptors WIN (118-110)

Memphis Grizzlies WIN $1.70 @ Sacramento Kings WIN (97-86)

Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers +2 $1.91 WIN (99-114)

CFL (playoffs) for November 18

Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-7) @ Calgary Stampeders (14-4), McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB, Monday, November 18, 8.40am

The two most dominant teams of the regular season will clash in the West Division Final when the Saskatchewan Roughriders visit the Calgary Stampeders Sunday. The Roughriders are out to continue the recent streak of home Grey Cup wins and stormed out of the gate to a franchise-record 8-1 start. Saskatchewan stumbled in the second half of the season, winning three of their last nine games, but came to life in the fourth quarter of the West Semi-final. Key injuries look set to increase the pressure on the Stamps’ ability to stop Roughriders running threats such as Darian Durant and Kory Sheets. Durant ran for a surprising 97 yards last week against the BC Lions after being limited on the ground due to nagging injuries for most of the season. Injuries shortened Sheets’ season, holding the running back to 1598 yards – 215 fewer than Cornish. Leading receiver Chris Getzlaf has been practicing with the team but is questionable (knee), but Durant still has Weston Dressler and Taj Smith (more than 1000 receiving yards each). Temperature of minus-12 is expected in Calgary around game time, with a 60 per cent chance of snow.

Calgary is eager to avenge last year’s Grey Cup Final loss and overcame numerous key injuries to finish with the best record in the league. The Stamps spent their bye week seeking replacements on their defensive line after losing Demonte’ Bolden and Micah Johnson to injuries in the final game of the regular season. Kevin Glenn will start at QB for Calgary, while league-leading running back Jon Cornish could be in for another big game after rushing for more than 100 yards in each of his last two meetings with Saskatchewan. Calgary also lost leading receiver Marquay McDaniel in its final regular-season game after losing Nik Lewis earlier in the season. McDaniel had 1047 receiving yards but was also the smallest of the Stampeders’ main receiving corps options at 180cm, leaving Glenn with tall targets like Jabari Arthur and Brad Sinopoli. Despite Calgary’s defensive line injuries, Charleston Hughes and Cordarro Law (32 sacks combined) remain healthy. The Stampeders defeated Saskatchewan twice in Calgary during the regular season.

Confirmed bets

Hamilton Tiger-Cats +4.5 @ Toronto Argonauts (two units @ $1.95) WIN (36-24)

Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Calgary Stampeders -4 (one unit @ $1.80) LOSE (35-14)

Leans

Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Toronto Argonauts +55.5 $1.91 WIN (36-24)

Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Calgary Stampeders +51 $1.91 LOSE (35-14)

Motorsport (F1) for November 18

Formula 1 United States Grand Prix, Circuit of The Americas, Austin, TX, USA, Monday, November 18, 6am

The F1 focus returns to the USA for the penultimate race of the 2013 season where Sebastian Vettel, from pole, is expected to win his eighth consecutive race and overtake compatriot Michael Schumacher as second all-time for successive race wins. Vettel finished second to Lewis Hamilton here last year but I don’t think he’ll be fighting Hamilton for the win this year. Vettel is short at $1.25 but I think he’ll win again, so a win is a win. Barring mechanical failure or crashes, Fernando Alonso and Nico Rosberg provide short but quite safe bets for finishing in the points. Alonso has been Mr Consistent without taking the spotlight too often but is still second in the World Championship standings.

He will want to remain there by keeping fourth-placed Hamilton at bay (third-placed Kimi Raikkonen having been replaced by Heikki Kovalainen due to back surgery). Rosberg didn’t make it through to Q3 so will start 13th on the grid but his recent form and the performance of his Mercedes should see him finish at least top 10. In Q3, Vettel pipped Aussie Mark Webber for pole in the final sector. Webber is quick here, particularly in the first sector of fast corners, but I’m not sure he can manage his tyres well enough later in the race to win. Romain Grosjean starts in third place on the grid and is well place to finish on the podium again (third in Japan and India) while Nico Hulkenberg and Lewis Hamilton finished in fourth and fifth places respectively. (Preview by Stephen Doig)

Confirmed bets

Sebastian Vettel (win) $1.25 WIN (1st)

Fernando Alonso (points finish) $1.20 WIN (5th)

Leans

Nico Rosberg (points finish) $1.53 WIN (9th)

Lewis Hamilton (top 6) $1.36 WIN (4th)

Fernando Alonso (top 6) $1.36 WIN (5th)

Football (World Cup playoffs) for November 18

Africa group round 3, second leg: Cameroon v Tunisia, Stade Omnisport, Yaounde, Cameroon, Monday, November 18, 1am

Cameroon are unbeaten in their previous five competitive fixtures and came through their qualifying group with four wins from their six matches to top Group I ahead of Libya. The Indomitable Lions are now just a single goal away from the 2014 World Cup finals having drawn the opening leg of their Group 3 tie in Tunisia. Cameroon were without a number of players in that first leg and an inspired performance from goalkeeper Charles Itandje kept them in the tie. Stephen Mbia was the main absentee in the first leg but he returns to the side for this game and he, along with the likes of Pierre Webo (pictured), will be looking to fire Cameroon to Brazil 2014. Cameroon coach Volker Finke could ring the changes to his side for the second leg, with QPR left-back Benoit Assou-Ekotto back in the squad along with Landry Nguemeo, Henri Bedimo, Gaetan Bong and Loe Raoul. Cameroon were let off the hook in the first leg and now they have the tie where they want it going into this second leg. They have the firepower to get through but will need to make the most of their chances.

Tunisia head into this encounter in good form, however. Including friendlies, they have only lost three of their last 22 matches, with two of those coming against African heavyweights Ivory Coast and Ghana. They will be without Alaeddine Yahia and Aymen Abdennour as both defenders have knee injuries. Marseille forward Saber Khalifa could be the main danger. New Tunisia coach Ruud Krol believes his side has the potential to claim a vital win in Cameroon after the goalless draw in Rades. Tunisian Prime Minister Ali Laarayadh, meanwhile, stepped in to help Krol on Thursday as he signed documents to naturalise two Tunisia players – Genk midfielder Fabien Camus and St Gallen midfielder Stephane Nater – ahead of the game. Tunisia will, however, be without the services of defenders Alaeddine Yahia and Aymen Abdennour. The two sides have only played each other four times in competitive matches since 2000, with Cameroon unbeaten against their rivals in that spell, which includes two victories, one coming after extra-time.

Confirmed bet

Cameroon WIN v Tunisia (two units @ $1.70) WIN (4-1)

Leans

Cameroon v Tunisia game total +2.5 $2.50 WIN (4-1)

Cameroon v Tunisia (correct score 2-1) $9.00 LOSE (4-1)

Rugby League (World Cup) for November 18

Fourth quarter-final: Samoa v Fiji, Halliwell Jones Stadium, Warrington, England, Monday, November 18, 2am

After three one-sided quarter-finals in which New Zealand, Australia and England emerged triumphant, the battle for the final semi-final berth in the 2013 Rugby League World Cup should be a cracker. Although the Samoans (pictured) enter as slight favourites, it's amazing that they've even got this far given the adversity that coach Matt Parish has had to endure over the group stages in regards to his roster. Injuries to Frank Winterstein, Reni Maitua and captain Harrison Hansen hampered the beginning of Samoa's World Cup campaign, while ill-discipline in their final group match win over France resulted in a one-game ban to forward Leeson Ah Mau. They did catch a break when they successfully appealed to overturn Sauaso Sue's one-game suspension, while Mose Masoe was lucky to escape a ban overall. As a result, veteran forward Tony Puletua answered an SOS and got some much-needed game time against the French. It remains to be seen whether Parish will employ a similar game plan against the more physical Fijians.

Fiji, similarly, have had to overcome plenty of hurdles to qualify for the final eight. After beating Ireland 32-14 in their opening game, the Bati went tryless against the Aussies, 34-2, before managing just two tries against hosts England, 34-12. Not only will coach Rick Stone face a mammoth task of trying to lift his side after successive defeats to two heavyweights, but he will have to do it without prop Korbin Sims, who was found guilty of spear-tackling England prop James Graham in their final group game. A semi-final against Australia awaits the winner of this clash. England and Australia kept Fijian full-back Kevin Naiqama quiet with masterful kicking displays over the past fortnight, but with halfback Ben Roberts shouldering most of Samoa's general play kicking, expect plenty of fifth-tackle pressure from the Fiji defence. Naiqama showed the type of danger he can be in their win over Ireland, breaking seven tackles and setting up a try and a line break.

Confirmed bet

Fiji v Samoa -4 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (4-22)

Lean

Fiji v Samoa +44.5 $1.90 LOSE (4-22)

NFL (week 11) for November 18

Oakland Raiders (3-6, 0-4 away) @ Houston Texans (2-7, 1-3 home), Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX, Monday, November 18, 5am

I’m not a big fan of ‘bad team v bad team’ situations, but the numbers don’t lie with the game total representing outstanding value here as the Texans host the hapless Raiders. Both clubs have suffered their share of woes so far this season. Two weeks after suffering a mini-stroke, Houston's Gary Kubiak expects to back on the sidelines for this as he tries to prevent the Texans from extending a franchise-worst losing streak to eight games. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips led the team in Kubiak's absence last Sunday as the Texans (2-7) were edged 27-24 by Arizona for a seventh straight defeat. That performance led to some disparaging comments from nine-time Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed and he was cut Tuesday in the middle of a lackluster season in which he lost his starting job. Houston also placed another Pro Bowler, running back Arian Foster, on injured reserve. Foster sat out against Arizona because of an injured back and was slated to undergo season-ending surgery this week. His replacement, Ben Tate, gained 56 yards on 15 carries while dealing with four broken ribs.

Texans QB Case Keenum (pictured) had three TDs in his third start since replacing Matt Schaub but completed a season-low 51.2 per cent of his passes for 201 yards. The Texans will try to take a step back toward respectability against the AFC’s only winless road team. Oakland (3-6) suffered its fourth defeat away from home last Sunday, 24-20 to the New York Giants. Quarterback Terrelle Pryor played with a sprained ligament in his right knee, and the Raiders gained a season-low 213 yards. He suffered a setback at practice on Friday and has been ruled out, giving undrafted rookie Matt McGloin his first NFL start. McGloin, who entered training camp fourth on the depth chart, completed seven of 15 passes for 87 yards in his only appearance, a 49-20 loss to Philadelphia on November 3. The last time the Raiders faced the Texans, they snatched a 25-20 win on October 9, 2011, Pryor was serving the final contest of a five-game suspension as a rookie for violations he committed at Ohio State. Oakland picked off Schaub twice for only its second victory in seven meetings.

Confirmed bets

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans +41 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (28-23)
Washington Redskins +4.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (16-24)

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks -12 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (20-41)

Cleveland Browns +6 @ Cincinnati Bengals (one unit @ $1.95) LOSE (20-41)
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints -3 (one unit @ $1.83) PUSH (20-23)

Leans

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +43.5 $1.91 WIN (28-41)

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills -40 $1.87 LOSE (14-37)

Detroit Lions @ Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 $2.05 WIN (27-37)

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles +53 $1.91 LOSE (16-24)

Baltimore Ravens +3 $1.95 @ Chicago Bears PUSH (20-23)

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals +41 $1.91 WIN (20-41)

Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 $1.83 LOSE (27-14)

Oakland Raiders @ Houston Texans -9.5 $2.00 LOSE (28-23)

San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins NO LEAN
San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints +50 $1.91 LOSE (20-23)

Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks +45.5 $1.91 WIN (20-41)

Kansas City Chiefs +8.5 $1.91 @ Denver Broncos LOSE (17-27)

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