Daily tips for November 3

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


Racing for November 3

Today’s highlights

Mornington R6 $80,000 Sportingbet Peninsula Cup (1600m, handicap)

Horse racing: Mornington (Vic), Goulburn (NSW), Dalby (Qld), Albany (WA), Kilmore (Vic), Muswellbrook (NSW). Harness racing: Dubbo (NSW), Maryborough (Vic), Launceston (Tas), Kellerberrin (WA). Greyhound racing: Healesville (Vic), Mount Gambier (SA), Sandown Park (Vic), Canberra (ACT), Gawler (SA), Sale (Vic), Albion Park (Qld).

You have to feel for the Mornington Racing Club. Sunny skies and mid 20s yesterday but the forecast for Peninsula Cup Day couldn’t be worse – cold, wet, windy and the chance of hail! That won’t stop a full house journeying to the popular track, located about an hour south of Melbourne. And for those planning the ultimate Melbourne Cup Carnival week, Mornington marks just day two of the marathon! The track appears to be holding up well, with a downgrade to a dead (5) this morning, which will suit #2 Red Colossus in the feature. The 7yo gelding journeyed to Darwin in the winter only to have his campaign stalled by the tragic death of Simone Montgomerie on Darwin Cup day, in which he was due to start. Trained at Mornington by Brett Scott, Red Colossus has had two runs back this preparation, lugging 61kg to a third at Seymour on October 20 at his last start. Down to 57kg here and jumping from barrier 5, the son of Testa Rossa gets plenty of favours here.

Confirmed bets

Mornington R5 #12 Kiss Me Ketut (E/W) 3rd ($2.20)

Mornington R6 #2 Red Colossus (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Muswellbrook R2 #8 Chicago (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.50)

Dalby R3 #1 Sell The Silver (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Leans

Mornington R2 #5 Sunset In Venice (E/W) 1st ($4.90/$1.70)

Mornington R8 #15 Suite Success (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Goulburn R5 #5 Half Irish (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.00)

Goulburn R7 #11 Lord Of The Isles (win) 1st ($2.50)

Kilmore R1 #6 Kevanova (E/W) 1st ($6.90/$1.80)

Kilmore R2 #8 Shadow Of The Mist (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Muswellbrook R7 #2 Aghamore (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Dalby R2 #3 Suggesta Star (win) LOSE (4th)

Breeders’ Cup for November 3

2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic, Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA, Sunday, November 3, 11.45am

It’s a case of blanket coverage when it comes to the Melbourne Cup Carnival, but there’s a race scheduled this morning offering prizemoney greater than that offered across the entire Derby Day program at Flemington yesterday. Founded in 1982 by pet food heir John Gaines, who wanted to clean up the image of horse racing in North America, the 2013 Breeders’ Cup is being run across two days at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, just outside Los Angeles, against the stunning backdrop of the San Gabriel mountains. The prizemoney across the 14 races is a staggering USD $24 million. Only the Dubai World Cup surpasses the Breeders’ Cup in terms of prizemoney. Races are run on both turf and dirt with the highlights including the USD $3 million Turf over 2400m (including the famous downhill start shute) and the USD $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic over 2000m. Like our own Spring Carnival, the Breeders’ Cup has a strong European influence with more runners journeying across the Atlantic each year.

Indeed, I like the look of a European challenger with dirt pedigree to take out the feature this year. #5 Declaration Of War, who has looked outstanding since his arrival and is described by Aidan O'Brien as “my best chance yet in the race”, can provide the Irish trainer with a first Breeders’ Cup Classic victory. O’Brien (well known to Aussie punters and racing officials!) has experienced everything but the joy of plundering the USD $5 million race, having gone within a whisker with Giant’s Causeway. Declaration Of War’s trump card is his versatility regarding trip, with O’Brien pointing to the fact that the colt can be effective at all distances from six furlongs to an extended mile and a quarter. After his Queen Anne Stakes triumph in June he took out the Juddmonte International Stakes at York. Classic rookie hoop Joseph O’Brien believes his mount can break sufficiently well to take full advantage of his excellent draw five off the rail. Last year’s disappointing favourite #9 Game On Dude while #10 Will Take Charge should also be prominent.

Confirmed bet

Santa Anita R12 #5 Declaration Of War (E/W) 3rd ($2.40)

Leans

Santa Anita R9 #11 Magician (E/W) 1st ($13.50/$3.50)

Santa Anita R10 #1 Justin Phillip (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Santa Anita R11 #8 Wise Dan (win) 1st ($1.80)

NBA for November 3

San Antonio Spurs (2-0, 1-0 away) @ Portland Trail Blazers (1-1, 0-0 home), Rose Garden, Portland, OR, Sunday, November 3, 1.10pm

The unpredictable nature of the opening fortnight of the NBA season has been underlined once again with home underdogs trending strongly, and I’m going with a home dog as my best of the day on a modest NBA slate. I expect Portland to be one of the big improvers this season, and no team has fared better against the San Antonio Spurs over the past five years. LaMarcus Aldridge (pictured) helped make certain that trend continued last season. With Tim Duncan’s status unclear, Aldridge might be able to feast on a short-handed frontcourt here when the Blazers try to continue their success against the unbeaten Spurs in their home opener. Portland (1-1) split its first two games on the road, losing 104-91 at Phoenix before regrouping to roll past Denver 113-98 on Friday. Aldridge poured in nine of his game-high 25 points in the fourth quarter as the Blazers snapped the Nuggets’ 23-game regular-season home win streak. The two-time All-Star has been difficult to stop in this matchup, averaging 25.7 points on 56.7 per cent shooting to help the Blazers take two of three from the Spurs (2-0) last season.

Duncan left Wednesday’s 101-94 win over Memphis in the third quarter after receiving an inadvertent elbow to the chest from Tony Allen. If he can’t go, Boris Diaw is expected to get another start after finishing with 14 points and hitting a big 3-pointer with 1:50 remaining in Friday’s 91-85 win at the Los Angeles Lakers. Diaw also had 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting after Duncan went down in the opener. On Friday, Tony Parker led the way with 24 points on 12-of-18 shooting and Manu Ginobili added 20. Parker has played in only three of the past seven meetings with the Blazers, averaging 18.0 points while helping the Spurs win two of those three contests. The Blazers, however, are one of two teams with a winning record against the Spurs during the regular season since 2008-09. They’ve won 12 of 17 meetings over that span. Portland has been particularly dominant at home in this series, winning eight of nine by an average of 10.5 points. The Spurs have limited opponents to 89.5 points per game on 39.4 per cent shooting in their two wins.

Confirmed bets

San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers +1.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (105-115)

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz +6.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (104-93)

Leans

Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 @ Indiana Pacers $1.91 LOSE (74-89)

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers +8.5 $1.91 WIN (104-107)

Charlotte Bobcats @ New Orleans Pelicans NO LEAN

Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks WIN $2.00 LOSE (97-90)

Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks NO LEAN
Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors -207 $1.91 WIN (87-98)

NHL for November 3

Pittsburgh Penguins (10-4-0, 20pts) @ Columbus Blue Jackets (5-7-0, 10pts), Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH, Sunday, November 3, 10.10am

I had to double check this stat when it popped up on a report last night, but the numbers don’t lie – road favourites are saluting at a staggering rate of 74.51 per cent so far this season! Throw in home favourites, and the number drops only as far as 65.13 per cent. I expect these numbers to steadily fall as the season progresses but, in the meantime, let’s make hay while the sun shines! I’m going with another road favourite here as the Pittsburgh Penguins aim for a repeat of their victory over Columbus on Friday as they eye a home-and-away sweep against their new Metropolitan Division foes. The Penguins (10-4-0) last went six games without scoring four regulation goals from December 29-January 11, 2012, and lost all six. This year, they came out of such a stretch with a 3-3-0 record before breaking out for four in the first 25:34 of Friday’s 4-2 win. Marc-Andre Fleury (pictured) made 37 saves, and allowed two or fewer goals for the ninth time in 12 starts. He leads the league with 10 wins for the first-place Penguins.

Chris Kunitz opened the scoring at 7:11 of the first period. He has goals in three straight games and the Penguins are 7-0 in games he’s scored. Sidney Crosby recorded an assist to push his point total to an NHL-leading 22. The Blue Jackets’ reigning Vezina Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky was replaced by Curtis McElhinney early in the second period after allowing three goals on 13 shots. Bobrovsky, who has lost six of his last eight starts overall, has a 5.62 goals-against average in his last five games against Pittsburgh, including a playoff appearance while with Philadelphia. It was the second straight loss for the Blue Jackets after they outscored opponents 12-4 during a three-game win streak. Columbus allowed two early second-period goals in their 4-3 loss to Anaheim after taking a 1-0 lead into the dressing room. Blue Jackets center Ryan Johansen scored for the fourth time in seven games and defenseman James Wisniewski recorded a point for the fifth consecutive contest. The Penguins have won four of five against the Blue Jackets, scoring at least four goals four times in that span.

Confirmed bets

Pittsburgh Penguins WIN @ Columbus Blue Jackets (two units @ $1.74) WIN (3-0)

Chicago Blackhawks TT +2.5 @ Winnipeg Jets (two units @ $1.68) WIN (5-1)

Montreal Canadiens @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (one unit @ $1.72) WIN (1-4)

Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils WIN (one unit @ $1.70) LOSE (1-0)

Leans

St Louis Blues WIN $1.80 @ Tampa Bay Lightning LOSE (2-4)

Anaheim Ducks WIN NT $1.85 @ Buffalo Sabres WIN (6-3)

Philadelphia Flyers TT -2.5 @ New Jersey Devils WIN (1-0)

Boston Bruins WIN $1.80 @ New York Islanders LOSE (1-3)

Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Rangers NO LEAN

Florida Panthers @ Washington Capitals NO LEAN

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Columbus Blue Jackets +5.5 $1.91 LOSE (3-0)

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Vancouver Canucks -5.5 $1.74 WIN (0-4)

Montreal Canadiens TT -2.5 $1.75 @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (1-4)

Detroit Red Wings WIN $1.95 @ Edmonton Oilers WIN (5-0)

Phoenix Coyotes @ San Jose Sharks +5.5 $2.10

Nashville Predators @ Los Angeles Kings WIN NT $1.85 LOSE (4-3)

CFL (week 19) for November 3

Edmonton Eskimos (3-14) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-6), Mosaic Stadium @ Taylor Field, Regina, SK, Sunday, November 3, 8.10am

The Edmonton Eskimos have been reduced to a spoiler role here as they head to a stumbling Saskatchewan in the final round of Canadian football before the playoffs.  Even though their season is lost, the Eskimos would like nothing more than to end it with one win against a West Division opponent. Edmonton is 0-9 against divisional foes and is mired in a five-game losing skid, while Saskatchewan has defeated the Eskimos all three times the teams have faced each other this year. Slotback Adarius Bowman is in top form after returning from a knee injury suffered last year, recording 199 receiving yards last week – the most by any receiver this season. Despite missing most of the season, Bowman is only behind slotback Fred Stamps for the team receiving yards lead. The Eskimos are a surprising 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings against the Roughriders. The Eskimos have also won at least four games every season since joining the CFL in 1949.

The Roughriders are stumbling into the playoffs with a 3-5 record in their last eight games, raising questions about their mental toughness following a franchise-best 8-0 start to the year. Defensive back Dwight Anderson (pictured) went so far as to claim “Calgary sucks” after the Stamps defeated Saskatchewan last week to secure top spot in the West Division, which seemed like the Riders’ to lose not too long ago. Anderson and Saskatchewan’s league-best defence will need to play its best in the playoffs, and it will have a perfect opportunity to build confidence against Edmonton’s inconsistent offence. QB Darian Durant reached 4000 passing yards for the third time in his career while also setting a new career-high with 31 touchdown tosses, throwing 16 of them to slotbacks Chris Getzlaf and Weston Dressler, both of whom have caught more than 1000 yards this season. RB Kory Sheets is 201 rushing yards behind Jon Cornish of the Stampeders for the league-lead. Saskatchewan is 8-0 this season when Sheets rushes for more than 100 yards in a game.

Confirmed bets

Edmonton Eskimos @ Saskatchewan Roughriders -4 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (30-26)

Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (37-7)

Leans

Edmonton Eskimos @ Saskatchewan Roughriders -52.5 $1.91 LOSE (30-26)

College Football (week 10) for November 3

ACC: 7 Miami Hurricanes (7-0, 3-0 ACC) @ 3 Florida State Seminoles (7-0, 5-0 ACC), Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL, Sunday, November 3, 11am

Florida State and Miami have three things in common – both are 7-0; both are among the nation’s top 10 teams and they hate each other! Just like old times, major national championship implications will be on the line when No. 3 Florida State hosts No. 6 Miami in this battle of unbeaten teams. The Seminoles might be playing better than anyone in the nation after following their blowout win at Clemson with a 49-17 thumping of North Carolina State after sending in their second-stringers when leading 35-0 at the end of the first quarter. The Seminoles have been unstoppable on offence with freshman Jameis Winston (pictured) running the show, scoring TDs on 54.2 per cent of their drives (second-best in the nation). Winston has emerged as a Heisman Trophy contender, as he ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency and has passed for 2177 yards and 23 touchdowns. The big offensive numbers have overshadowed a defence that leads the country against the pass (153.7 yards per game) and has produced 14 turnovers and three defensive TDs.

Miami presents the greatest threat remaining on Florida State’s schedule in the battle for Sunshine State superiority. The Hurricanes have moved to the periphery of the national title picture after two straight narrow victories (27-23 at North Carolina and 24-21 over Wake Forest) but could reclaim their place in the conversation with an upset in Tallahassee. While the Hurricanes have been narrowly averted disaster, the Seminoles have been inflicting it. They’ve won their last three games by a combined 132 points and six of their seven wins have come by 28 points or more. The Hurricanes have won nine straight (their longest streak since winning 10 in a row from November 15, 2003 to October 23, 2004) yet they’re three-touchdown underdogs here. Miami’s offence was impressive early in the season but has been inconsistent against inferior opponents the past two games. The defence has kept the Hurricanes in the past two contests and boasts 22 sacks and 12 interceptions on the season but will have its hands full with an explosive Florida State offence.

Confirmed bets

Miami @ Florida State -62.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (41-14)
Northwestern @ Nebraska WIN (two units @ $1.46) WIN (24-27)
Northern Illinois -23.5 @ Massachusetts (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (63-19)
Temple @ Rutgers +57 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (20-23)
Southern Miss @ Marshall -29 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (13-61)
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +66.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (52-34)

NC State @ North Carolina -58.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (27-19)
Middle Tennessee State @ UAB +3.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (24-21)
Notre Dame @ Navy -49 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (34-38)

Leans

Virginia Tech @ Boston College +4 $1.91 WIN (27-34)
Illinois @ Penn State -11.5 $1.91 LOSE (17-24)
Southern Miss @ Marshall +58 $1.91 WIN (13-61)

Army WIN @ Air Force $1.91 LOSE (28-42)
Ohio State -31.5 @ Purdue $1.91 WIN (56-0)
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -12 $1.91 WIN (16-34)
Wake Forest +4.5 @ Syracuse $1.91 LOSE (0-13)
Michigan @ Michigan State +46.5 $1.91Georgia @ Florida WIN $2.25 LOSE (23-20)
Clemson -17.5 $1.91 @ Virginia WIN (59-10)
West Virginia +13 @ TCU $1.91 WIN (30-27)
Auburn -8 @ Arkansas $1.91 WIN (35-17)
Tennessee +11 @ Missouri $1.91 LOSE (3-31)
Oklahoma State WIN @ Texas Tech $1.91 WIN (52-34)
Colorado @ UCLA -27.5 $1.91 LOSE (23-45)
Miami @ Florida State -21 $1.91 WIN (14-41)
UTEP @ Texas A&M -46.5 (line) $1.91 WIN (7-57)
Nevada +20.5 @ Fresno State $1.91
Arizona -15.5 @ California $1.91 LOSE (33-28)
Wisconsin @ Iowa +9.5 $1.91 LOSE (28-9)

EPL for November 2-3

Manchester City (5-1-3) v Norwich City (2-2-5), Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England, Sunday, November 3, 2am

The big story ahead of this clash was the axing of Manchester City goalkeeper Joe Hart after a series of high-profile errors, meaning Costel Pantilimon will make his Premier League debut here. Combined with a ferocious response from manager Manuel Pelligrini following their careless defeat at Chelsea, Manchester City look poised to take out their frustrations on Norwich. Pellegrini’s side have made five errors leading directly to a goal this season, more than any other team. They looked subdued in the midweek Capital One Cup win at Newcastle and they really need a convincing league victory. The 2012 champions have scored at Etihad Stadium in the past 54 games. They've only dropped 16 home points from 49 games, winning all four this season and nine of their last 10. Ironically, Norwich’s 3-2 victory in May was their only setback in that run. Sergio Agüero (pictured) has scored in four successive league matches for the first time in his City career, amassing six goals in that spell. He has four goals in three Premier League starts against Norwich.

Chris Hughton's men are on a desperate run; 27 points from their past 30 games is relegation form. Eight away points from a possible 42 is unacceptable. Luck has deserted them, but the defence collapsed against Chelsea, at Arsenal and again at Manchester United in the week. Norwich don’t have enough top quality in-form defenders to snuff out the likes of Agüero in front of goal, the creativity of David Silva and the surging runs from deep of Yaya Toure. The four Premier League meetings between these sides in the past two seasons have produced a total of 25 goals, an average of 6.25 per game. Norwich have only scored four times in their last eight league games and have six goals in total - the joint-worst record in the top flight. They are also the only team yet to score a goal in the first half hour of a Premier League game this season. Forwards Johan Elmander, Gary Hooper and Ricky van Wolfswinkel have managed a total of only six shots on target so far.

Confirmed bets

Manchester City -1.5 v Norwich City (two units @ $1.90) WIN (7-0)

Newcastle United v Chelsea WIN (1.5 units @ $1.62) LOSE (2-0)

Stoke City v Southampton -2.5 (1.5 units @ $1.53) WIN (1-1)

Leans

Newcastle United v Chelsea +2.5 $1.67 LOSE (2-0)

Hull City v Sunderland WIN $3.20 LOSE (1-0)

West Bromwich Albion (to nil) v Crystal Palace $2.45 WIN (2-0)

Fulham v Manchester United WIN $1.62 WIN (1-3)
Manchester City v Norwich City +3.5 $2.15 WIN (7-0)
West Ham United v Aston Villa (double chance) $1.67 WIN (0-0)
Arsenal v Liverpool DRAW $3.00 LOSE (2-0)

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