Daily tips for October 5

Racing for October 7

Today’s highlights

Flemington R7 G2 $220,000 TAB Edward Manifold Stakes (1610m, set weights, 3yo fillies)

Flemington R8 G1 $500,000 Turnbull Stakes (2000m, SWP, 4yos+) 

Flemington R9 G2 $220,000 Gilgai Stakes (1200m, SWP, 3yo+)

Flemington R10 G2 $220,000 Blazer Stakes (1410m, SWP, 4yo+ mares)

Randwick R3 G3 $125,000 APN Outdoor Craven Plate (200m, WFA, 3yo+

Randwick R4 G1 $400,000 Coolmore Flight Stakes (1600m, set weights, 3yo fillies)

Randwick R5 G2 $175,000 Sydney City Toyota Roman Consul Stakes (1200m, set weights, 3yos)

Randwick R7 G1 $500,000 The Star Epsom (1600m, 3yo+)

Randwick R8 G2 $200,000 Premiere Stakes (1200m, WFA, 3yo+)

Randwick R9 G1 $400,000 McGrath Estate Agents Metropolitan (2400m, 3yo+)

Horse racing: Flemington (Vic), Randwick (NSW), Doomben (Qld), Morphettville (SA), Belmont (WA), Newcastle (NSW), Gold Coast (Qld), Murtoa (Vic), Gunbower (Vic), Wagga (NSW), Darwin (NT), Sunshine Coast (Qld). Harness racing: Menangle (NSW), Albion Park (Qld), Cranbourne (Vic), Globe Derby (SA), Leeton (NSW), Bunbury (WA). Greyhound racing: The Gardens (NSW), Traralgon (Vic), Richmond (NSW), The Meadows (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Cannington (WA), Ipswich (Qld).

The Spring Carnival kicks into high gear today with arguably the biggest day on the national racing calendar with meetings full of black-type action at Flemington (pictured) and Randwick. The new ‘international’ look of Australian racing will also be on show in Sydney and Melbourne on today. Horses formerly trained in the northern hemisphere are now dominating elite fields here, particularly in staying races. Take for example Saturday’s Group 1 $400,000 The Metropolitan over 2400 metres at Randwick. Of the confirmed 14 runners three come from Ireland, two from Germany, one from Italy, one from France and one from Great Britain, not to mention several Kiwi-bred stayers as well. In the Group 1 $500,000 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington, there are four horses formerly from Ireland, one from France, one from Great Britain and one from Germany, and again, another five either from, or bred in New Zealand. The structure of Australian racing, certainly in our staying ranks, has changed forever, and Saturday’s feature Group 1 staying races are proof of that.

This year’s edition of the Turnbull Stakes is the epitome of perfect programming, whether gauged by course (Flemington, Melbourne’s best) distance (2000m), calendar (one month before Melbourne Cup) or allotted weights. It is the Set Weights and Penalties aspect that can be confusing for punters, as the race is neither a handicap nor WFA. By combining the runners’ weights with the WFA scale and the Official Handicap Ratings, four horses jump out of the pack – #6 Fiorente, #7 Puissance De Lune, #11 Fawkner and #18E Waldpark (looks unlikely to get a start). Of that trio, I like the look of the Melbourne Cup favourite #7 Puissance De Lune. Glen Boss will take him forward for the first time this prep and that's when we will see just how well he is going. He’s won two of three here including the G3 Queen Elizabeth (2600m) last spring and the G3 Blamey (1600m) in the autumn. The 6yo grey is at his best when free-rolling on a good gallop he has the strength to surge off that tempo. His run in the Underwood was impressive off a ridiculously slow tempo, and I think we'll see the best of him this weekend. #11 Fawkner is definitely worth an each-way saver.

Suggested bets: Flemington R8 #7 Puissance De Lune E/W 1x2 (two units) 2nd ($1.80), #11 Fawkner (E/W) 3rd ($3.60)

Centrebet is offering money back specials for two of the biggest races tomorrow! Place a Centrebest or fixed win bet on either the Epsom Handicap or Turnbull Stakes and if your horse runs second, Centrebet will give you your money back up to $100!

 

Other tips (check back for updates throughout the afternoon)

Flemington R3 #3 Paximadia (win) 1st ($2.80)

Flemington R5 #3 British General (E/W) 2nd ($2.20)

Flemington R6 #3 Moudre (E/W)  LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R7 #4 Wordplay (E/W 1x2) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R9 #1 Spirit of Boom (E/W) 2nd ($2.50)
Flemington R10 #9 Peron (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.60)

Randwick R3 #1 Masked Marvel (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.90) 

Randwick R4 #1 Guelph (win) 1st ($1.35)

Randwick R5 Exacta 1/3,4,5 1/3 ($5.10)

Randwick R6 #4 Rock Hero (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.40/$1.60)

Randwick R7 #10 Boban (E/W) 1st ($6.30/$2.50)

Randwick R8 #13 Arinosa (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.30/$1.70)

Randwick R9 #4 Julienas (E/W) 2nd ($2.50)

Doomben R1 #9 Totally Sure (win) LOSE (2nd)

Doomben R3 #5 Anna Lizzie (win) LOSE (4th)

Doomben R6 #2 Londehero (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.50/$1.50)

Morphettville R3 #12 The Messina Nymph (win) 1st ($3.10)

Morphettville R4 #3 Star Of Zena (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.70)

Morphettville R5 #3 Lampedusa (win) 1st ($1.90)

Morphettville R6 #5 Sysmo (E/W 1x2) 3rd (NTD)

Morphettville R8 #3 Eureka Pulse (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Newcastle R6 #8 Sinjoren (win) LOSE (U/P)

NCAAF (week 6) for October 5

MWC: BYU Cougars (2-2) @ Utah State Aggies (3-2, 2-0 MWC), Romney Stadium, Logan, UT, Saturday, October 5, 10am

The Brigham Young Cougars boast one of the most robust rushing games in the NCAA but they'll face a significant test as they visit the Utah State Aggies at Romney Stadium (pictured). Utah State is allowing an average of 17 points per game – good for 23rd in the nation – and has surrendered fewer than 127 rushing yards per game through its first five contests. The Aggies will have to deal with a dual threat in the BYU backfield, with quarterback Taysom Hill fifth in the country at 141.3 rushing yards per game and running back Jamaal Williams 13th at 126 ypg. There’s always plenty of feeling in this game as the big money BYU had dominated the series for 17 years until 2010 when the Aggies snapped the drought. The next two years, the Cougars hosted the Aggies in Provo.  Both games came down to the wire, with one or two plays meaning the difference between victory and defeat.  Both times, the BYU salvaged a victory, winning by three points.

The last three years have seen a rebirth of Aggie football, with too many accomplishments and records set to list them all. They could, however, use a boost with the return to form of Joe Hill. The junior running back has been battling injuries all season and had just nine carries for 30 yards in last week's one-sided win over San Jose State. Hill is considered day-to-day for this game. Back-up Joey DeMartino has fared well in Hill's absence - carrying 34 times for 297 yards but lacks breakaway speed and could find things difficult against a formidable Cougars defense. BYU holds a 45-34-3 edge in the all-time series, including a 6-3 victory on October 5 last year. I’m leaning towards the Aggies to end the two-game winning streak by BYU as Utah State takes home the Old Wagon Wheel trophy. Just remember the name Chuckie Keeton, the Utah State QB has been a cash cow for bettors over the past two years and his duel threat abilities will be too much for BYU defence.

Suggested bets: Utah State -6 (two units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -55.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (31-14)

Other tips

Nevada +6 WIN @ San Diego State +59 WIN (44-44)

CFL (week 15) for October 5

Saskatchewan Roughriders (8-5) @ BC Lions (9-4), BC Place, Vancouver, BC, Saturday, October 5, 12.05pm

The Saskatchewan Roughriders are in a tailspin after their franchise-record start to the season, dropping four straight games and sitting third in the West Division. The Roughriders will have a chance to make up some ground on a team that passed them when they visit the BC Lions. Saskatchewan’s offence has looked lost without league-leading running back Kory Sheets, who was on pace to break the CFL record for rushing yardage in a season before suffering a knee injury three weeks ago. Saskatchewan has been held to 34 points in two full games without Sheets. Quarterback Darian Durant completed 59-of-98 passes for 665 yards over that span, throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions, but the Roughriders running game was non-existent, totaling 54 yards. The defense is hurting as well without linebacker Renauld Williams, who led the team in tackles and sacks before being placed on the nine-game injured list. Slotback Chris Getzlaf is on pace for a career year with 861 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

The Lions defeated the Roughriders 24-22 in Week 13 as part of a perfect two-game road swing to bring a three-game winning streak back to BC Place, where they are 6-0 in 2013 and have not lost in 12 regular season games. BC scored three defensive touchdowns in last week’s victory against the Blue Bombers, which took the pressure off back-up QB Thomas DeMarco (pictured). He completed 15-of-21 passes with one touchdown starting in place of Travis Lulay, who will miss at least two more weeks with a shoulder injury. Linebacker Adam Bighill was named defensive player of the week after recording 10 tackles, one sack and forcing two fumbles against the Blue Bombers. Bighill returned one of those fumbles for a touchdown. Cornerbacks Dante Marsh and Cord Parks also scored touchdowns off turnovers. Lulay has expressed confidence in DeMarco’s abilities and said he hopes to resume throwing soon. The Lions are also 4-0 ATS in their last four against fellow Western Conference sides while the under is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings in BC.

Suggested bets: BC Lions -3 (three units @ $1.91) LOSE, game total -52.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (31-17)

Other tips

Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3 WIN @ Toronto Argonauts +56.5 LOSE (33-19)

NHL for October 5

Ottawa Senators (0-0-0) @ Buffalo Sabres (0-1-0), First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY, Saturday, October 5, 9.05am

Although their long-time leader is now playing elsewhere, the Ottawa Senators are poised to sustain the success they’ve achieved the past two seasons. For the first time since the 1995 season, the Senators will take the ice without Daniel Alfredsson (pictured) when they visit the rebuilding Buffalo Sabres. After 17 seasons with the team, Alfredsson put off retirement and signed a one-year, $USD 5.5 million deal with Detroit. The 40-year-old is the franchise’s all-time leader in games, goals, assists and points, but he scored 10 in 47 contests for a team that ranked 27th with 112 goals during 2013. Ottawa recorded 92 points to reach the playoffs in 2011-12 and went 25-17-6 in the lockout-shortened 2013 season, overcoming injuries to Jason Spezza, 2012 Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and goalie Craig Anderson to again make the playoffs (upsetting second-seeded Montreal in the first round).

The Senators moved to upgrade their offence in the off-season by acquiring Bobby Ryan from Anaheim in a deal that sent talented young forward Jakob Silfverberg west. Ryan scored at least 31 goals in each of the four seasons prior to 2013, when he had 11 in 46 games. A healthy Spezza should also help. The recently named captain matched a career high with 34 goals in 2011-12, but back problems limited him to two and four assists in eight regular season and playoff games in 2013. Ottawa’s offensive deficiencies in 2013 were largely offset by its conference-best 2.08 goals-against average. Anderson went 12-9-2 with a 1.69 GAA despite missing 18 games due to an ankle injury, while back-up Robin Lehner had a 2.20 GAA in 12 starts. Ottawa won the first three meetings with the Sabres last season before losing 4-2 at Buffalo on April 5.

The Sabres look to bounce back from their 2-1 loss at Detroit on Wednesday. Zemgus Girgensons scored in his NHL debut, but Buffalo went 0 for 7 on the power play and failed to convert on a pair of two-man advantages. The Sabres ranked 29th on the power play last season at 14.1 per cent. The 19-year-old Girgensons was one of three teenagers in the Sabres’ line-up. Buffalo's Thomas Vanek had a team-high 20 goals and 21 assists in 38 games last season, but he's been held to two assists in his last eight games against the Senators. Karlsson has six goals and four assists in his last nine versus Buffalo. Sabres forward Ville Leino is out indefinitely due to a broken rib suffered against the Red Wings. Leino played in eight games last season because of a hip injury.

Suggested bets: Senators WIN (2.5 units @ $1.80) WIN, game total -5.5 (one unit @ $1.83) WIN (1-0)

Daily tips

Red Wings @ Hurricanes -5.5 $1.83 WIN (3-2)

Kings @ Jets WIN $1.83 WIN (3-5)

Islanders WIN $1.91 WIN @ Devils -5.5 $1.77 LOSE (4-3)

Flames @ Blue Jackets -1.5 $2.65 WIN (1-3)

Predators @ Avalanche WIN $1.72 WIN (1-3)

MLB playoffs for October 5

ALDS game 1: Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Saturday, October 5, 5.05am

The Tampa Bay Rays have been in playoff mode for the last few weeks while battling for the wild card, winning a one-game tiebreaker in Texas on Tuesday and taking the one-game wild card playoff in Cleveland on Thursday. Their reward is a trip to face the well-rested and top-seeded Boston Red Sox on Friday in Game 1 of the American League Division Series. The Red Sox will be playing for the first time since ending the regular season on Sunday. Boston played an intersquad game on Thursday to keep everybody fresh but will need to get into playoff mode quickly after spending the bulk of September comfortably ahead of the rest of the AL East. The Red Sox took 12 of the 19 meetings against Tampa Bay during the regular season, including two of three on the road from September 10-12 to help put the division out of reach. The Rays won 10 of their last 12 going back to the regular season, with the pitching holding opponents to 2.83 runs in that span. They are also a staggering 14-2 when tonight’s starter is on the mound.

That man is Rays LH Matt Moore (17-4, 3.29 ERA), who finished out the regular season with wins in each of his last two starts but struggled with his command in September, issuing 20 walks in 29 total innings over six starts. The 24-year-old had one of his best starts at Boston on July 22, allowing just two hits and walking one in a shutout. Moore is making his third career post-season appearance (second start) and yielded a total of one run on three hits in 10 innings during the 2011 ALDS. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (pictured, 15-8, 3.75) had a string of nine straight quality starts come to an end at Baltimore last Saturday, when he was reached for four runs on nine hits in five innings. The 29-year-old faced Tampa Bay four times in the regular season and went 2-1 with a 4.32 ERA, including a win in the most recent meeting on July 23. Lester is 2-3 with a 2.57 ERA in eight career post-season games (six starts) but went 0-2 against the Rays in the 2008 ALCS.

Suggested bets: Boston WIN (two units @ $1.74) WIN, game total +7.5 (one unit @ $1.95) WIN (2-12)

Other tips

NLDS game 2 (Cardinals lead 1-0): Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals WIN $1.74 LOSE +7 $1.91 WIN (7-1)

ALDS game 1: Detroit Tigers @ Oakland Athletics WIN $2.05 -6.5 $2.10

NLDS game 2 (Dodgers lead 1-0): Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves WIN $1.93 WIN -6.5 $1.91 LOSE (3-4)

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