Daily tips for October 13

Racing for October 13

Today’s highlights

Cranbourne R8 Listed $200,000 TAB Cranbourne Cup (2025m)

Coonamble R8 $40,000 Carco Coonamble Cup (1600m)

Horse racing: Cranbourne (Vic), Hawkesbury (NSW), Dalby (Qld), Penola (SA), Geraldton (WA), Kilmore (Vic), Coonamble (NSW), Devonport (Tas), Pioneer Park (NT). Harness racing: Ararat (Vic), Dubbo (NSW), Hobart (Tas), Northam (WA). Greyhound racing: Albion Park (Qld), Canberra (ACT), Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Healesville (Vic), Northam (WA), Sale (Vic), Sandown Park (Vic).

After magnificent sunny and mild conditions for yesterday’s Caulfield Guineas, the rain has returned for today’s running of the $200,000 Cranbourne Cup. The track was rated a good (3) but shouldn’t be worse than a dead (4) by the time the program kicks-off at 12.30pm. The Cup looks a tricky affair with up to five legitimate contenders but it’s hard to go past the form and record of #8 Star Rolling. Trained at Whittlesea by Peter Morgan and Craig Widdison, this 4yo gelding has had six starts for four wins including last time out over 1800m at Morphettville on September 21. The form from that race was franked in yesterday’s Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield where Let’s Make Adeal finished fourth just 1.25 lengths off winner Sea Moon. Barrier 14 is a slight concern but there’s plenty of speed around him so Reece Wheeler shouldn’t have a problem finding a good spot in the running line. Last week’s Benalla Cup winner #7 Flying Hussler is back on his home track and worth a saver.

Suggested bets: Cranbourne R8 #8 Star Rolling WIN (two units) LOSE (U/P), #7 Flying Hussler E/W (one unit) LOSE (U/P)

Other tips

Cranbourne R4 #5 Seattleite (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.00) 

Cranbourne R5 #7 Rich Jack (win) 1st ($1.90) 

Cranbourne R7 #10 Baluch (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.80)

Cranbourne R9 #1 General Truce (E/W) LOSE (U/P) 

Hawkesbury R3 #1 Sigismund (win) 1st ($1.80) 

Hawkesbury R8 #2 Strace (place) LOSE (U/P)

Coonamble R1 #8 Husswick (win) 1st ($1.60) 

Coonamble R4 #4 What a Racquet (E/W 1x4) 1st ($3.50/$1.40) 

Coonamble R8 #5 First Class Ticket (win) LOSE (2nd)

Dalby R3 #7 Feytalistic (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.30/$1.30)
Dalby R7 #4 Akbar Mahal (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($2.20)

Penola R1 #6 Monica’s Machine (win) LOSE (4th)

Kilmore R4 #1 By His Design (E/W) 2nd ($2.40)
Devonport R6 #5 Viva La Witch (win) LOSE (3rd)

Devonport R8 #3 Yuppony (win) 1st ($1.80)

Harness racing tip: Ararat R5 #3 Big Gorilla (win) LOSE (2nd)
Greyhound racing tip: Healesville R10 #7 Five Star Knocka (win) 1st ($1.90)

Motorsport for October 13

SuperCheap Auto Bathurst 1000; Mount Panorama, Bathurst, NSW; Sunday, October 13, 10.30pm

The Jamie Whincup and Paul Dumbrell #1 Red Bull Commodore stands to become one of the shortest priced favourites in the history of the Bathurst 1000. After topping Friday qualifying and winning pole in yesterday’s top 10 shootout, the Whincup/Dumbrell Holden has been trimmed into $2.40. However, the polesitter will have to overcome a lousy record for cars starting from the premium spot on the grid.  Occupying pole position is a huge advantage in Formula One grands prix. Looking back at the past 50 races, which take in the 2008, 2009 and 2010 seasons, the driver who was fastest in qualifying won 23 of them. In betting terms, that 46.0 per cent strike rate equates to odds of just under 2.20.

But pole isn’t anything near as important a factor in determining the Bathurst 1000 winner. Since 1973, when it became a 1000-kilometre event, only eight cars have done the pole-race double. That 21.6 per cent strike rate works out to betting odds of just over 4.50. And the Bathurst 1000 pole-to-race ratio gets worse as you scale back the number of years, with the eight conversions occurring in 1978, 1979, 1983, 1991, 1993, 2002, 2003 and 2009. So, since 1994, just three out of 16 pole-sitting cars have made the most of their qualifying effort and finished first. The other x-factor in this year’s event is the weather. The race will start under fine and warm conditions but afternoon storms are forecast with a high likelihood of rain just in time for the run to the flag.

Mount Panorama is tough enough without having to cope with a wet track, especially for co-drivers who lack the experience of the championship regulars. I’m happy to take on Whincup/Dumbrell and go with his teammate Craig Lowndes, who’ll be partnered by Warren Luff. The Red Bull Commodore (pictured) has the reliability and speed to run to the limit over 1000 kms to go with Lowndes’ five wins on the mountain. The Ford on Mark Winterbottom and Steven Richards looks solid but ‘Frosty’ has a lousy record in this race – I’m tipping a change of luck for the top Ford in the field. I also like the look of the pace in the BOC Commodore piloted by Jason Bright and Andrew Jones.

Suggested bets: Car #888 Lowndes/Luff WIN (one unit @ $6.00) LOSE (3rd), Car #5 Winterbottom/Richards TOP 3 (1.75 units @ $1.95) WIN (1st), Car #8 Bright/Jones TOP 6 (2.5 units @ $1.60) WIN (5th)

NHL for October 13

Ottawa Senators (1-0-2) @ San Jose Sharks (4-0-0), SAP Center, San Jose, CA, Sunday, October, 13, 1.10pm

With their depth on full display, the San Jose Sharks are off to another superb start. While the Ottawa Senators have recorded at least one point in every game thus far, they still have plenty to clean up. The undefeated Sharks try to keep rolling against the Senators, who continue a season-opening six-game road trip here. After opening a franchise-best 7-0-0 in 2012-13, San Jose has outscored opponents 21-5 in winning each of its first four games this season. Six players have at least two goals, including rookie Tomas Hertl with a league-leading six. Brent Burns had a goal and an assist and Thornton and Logan Couture both set up two scores in Friday’s 4-1 win at Vancouver. Antti Niemi (pictured), who has started all four games, made 25 saves to lower his goals-against average to 1.25. The Sharks now return home, where they are 25-2-5 dating to March 22, 2012. San Jose had limited Ottawa (1-0-2) to five goals during a five-game winning streak in the series before losing the last match-up, 4-1 on January 19, 2012.

Since holding Buffalo scoreless on four power-play chances in a season-opening 1-0 victory, the Senators have killed just eight of 12 penalties in their last two games. Ottawa suffered a 5-4 shootout loss to Toronto last Sunday before falling 4-3 to Los Angeles in overtime Thursday. While the Senators stormed back after allowing three first-period goals, they lost on Jeff Carter’s power-play tally 28 seconds into OT. Craig Anderson, who stopped 28 shots, has allowed four goals in back-to-back games for the first time since December 7-10, 2011. He is 3-6-0 with a 3.15 GAA in nine career starts against the Sharks. Senators newcomer Bobby Ryan, who has three points in the last two games, has seven in his last seven meetings with the Sharks. Niemi, meanwhile, is 1-1-0 with a 2.00 GAA and one shutout against the Senators. He is 14-1-1 with a 1.83 GAA in his last 17 starts on home ice. Joe Thornton has five goals and 14 assists during an 18-game stretch versus Ottawa, and Patrick Marleau has 14 points over his last 12 in the series.

Suggested bets: San Jose WIN (three units @ $1.57) WIN, San Jose -1.5 (one unit @ $2.70) LOSE, game total -5.5 (one unit @ $1.76) WIN (2-3)

Other tips

Bruins WIN $1.80 @ Blue Jackets WIN (3-1)

Oilers @ Maple Leafs +5.5 $1.91 WIN (5-6)
Flyers @ Red Wings WIN $1.57 WIN -5.5 $1.72 LOSE (2-5)
Penguins @ Lightning +5.5 $1.77 WIN (5-4)
Avalanche WIN $2.00 @ Capitals WIN (5-1)
Sabres @ Blackhawks -1.5 $2.28 LOSE (1-2)
Rangers @ Blues WIN $1.50 WIN TT +2.5 $1.91 WIN (3-5)
Islanders @ Predators WIN $1.86 WIN (2-3)
Stars WIN $2.56 LOSE (1-5) @ Wild 1P +1.5 $2.11 WIN (0-2)
Canadiens @ Canucks WIN $1.85 LOSE (4-1)

CFL (week 16) for October 13

Edmonton Eskimos (3-11) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-5), Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field, Regina, SK, Sunday, October 13, 7.30am AEDST

Running back Kory Sheets (pictured) returned last week to halt the Saskatchewan Roughriders losing skid. Sheets and the Roughriders host the Edmonton Eskimos hoping to regain some of the ground they lost in the West Division playoff race. Saskatchewan is tied with the BC Lions, four points behind the Calgary Stampeders for second in the division and will need Sheets and quarterback Darian Durant to play well in the final four regular-season games in order to compete for a first-round bye. Saskatchewan acquired defensive end Alex Hall from the Winnipeg Blue Bombers this week. Hall, who leads the league in sacks with 15, will be a free agent after this season and did not plan on staying in Winnipeg, which is last in the league. Saskatchewan traded non-import OL Patrick Neufeld and a fourth-round draft pick in 2015 to Winnipeg for Hall. He joins a defence that already has 47 sacks thanks to a defensive line that includes Jermaine McElveen and Ricky Foley (seven sacks apiece), but has been lacking explosiveness without injured linebacker Renauld Williams.

The Eskimos are barely alive in their hunt for the final playoff spot, but they will start quarterback Mike Reilly despite his recent concussion concerns after being knocked around for much of the season. Reilly has 3345 passing yards even though Edmonton has allowed 45 sacks, while also running for a team-high 539 yards. The Eskimos lost to the Roughriders 30-27 at Edmonton in August and are 0-6 against divisional opponents. Slotback Fred Stamps is the only player in the league with more than 1000 receiving yards. Stamps, who has 1086, has reached the 1000-yard mark in each of his past five seasons. DE Marcus Howard leads the team with nine sacks, but Edmonton’s defence has collapsed in recent efforts, allowing 80 points over the last six quarters as part of a division-worst 409 points allowed this year. In a division match-up between two teams headed in opposite directions, I have to go with the one that has the clear edge on both sides of the ball. The Roughriders have dominated this season’s series with two victories on the road.

Suggested bets: Saskatchewan -9.5 (1.5 units @ $1.80), game total -54.5 (2.5 unit @ $1.91)

MLB playoffs for October 13

ALCS game 1: Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox, Fenway Park, Boston, MT, Sunday, October 13, 11.10am

The Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers have storied histories but will be facing each other for the first time in the post-season here when Game 1 of the American League Championship Series revs up at Fenway Park. Boston is looking to reach the World Series for the first time since 2007 while Detroit is seeking to return for the second consecutive year and third time in eight seasons. The Tigers won the season series 4-3. The two teams were the highest-scoring squads in the majors – Boston recorded 853 runs, 57 more than Detroit – so the balance of potent bats and strong pitching arms will be intriguing. The health of Miguel Cabrera (groin) continues to be an issue but the Tigers' standout belted a two-run shot – his first homer since September 18 – in the division series finale against Oakland and is 10-for-19 against Red Sox starter Jon Lester. Boston is certainly more rested after clinching its series against Tampa Bay on Wednesday while Detroit wrapped up its set versus Oakland on Friday night and then traveled across the country.

Tigers RH Anibal Sanchez led the AL in ERA and allowed only nine regular-season homers but was shaky in his ALDS start against Oakland. He gave up six runs (five earned) and eight hits – including three homers – in 4 1/3 innings. Sanchez's lone career outing against Boston was for the Marlins in 2006 when he yielded seven runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings in his second career start. Red Sox LH Jon Lester (pictured, 15-8, 3.75) went 3-0 in five September starts and the strong finish carried over to a victory against Tampa Bay in which he allowed two runs and three hits in 7 2/3 innings. He went 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA versus the Tigers this season – including a victory on September 3 in which he allowed one run and struck out nine in seven innings – to improve to 2-2 with a 4.63 ERA in seven career outings. Lester gave up just one homer over his last 10 regular-season starts before permitting two solo shots in the start against the Rays. In their final meeting of the regular season Boston posted a staggering 20-4 victory over the Tigers.

Suggested bets: Boston (1.5 units @ $1.72) LOSE, game total -7.5 (2.5 units @ $1.91) WIN (1-0)

Other tips

NLCS game 2 (Cardinals lead 1-0): Dodgers WIN $1.78 @ Cardinals LOSE (0-1)

College Football (week 7) for October 13

9 Texas A&M Aggies ($-1, 1-1 SEC) @ Ole Miss Rebels (3-2, 1-2 SEC), Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS, Sunday, October 13, 11.30am

After losing back-to-back games at Alabama and Auburn, Mississippi returns home to face a well-rested Texas A&M squad. The ninth-ranked Aggies have won all five meetings against the Rebels, including last season’s 30-27 comeback victory in Oxford. The game features the SEC’s top two passing attacks, but Ole Miss' recent struggles continued in a 30-22 loss to Auburn last week, when it was held to three field goals before scoring two second-half touchdowns. The Rebels could return to form against a Texas A&M defence that ranks last in the SEC and lost starting defensive tackle Kirby Ennis to a season-ending knee injury in a 45-33 victory over Arkansas on September 28. Ennis’ injury is a major blow to the Aggies’ run defence, which is allowing 214.8 yards per game – 109th in the country. Texas A&M’s beleaguered defence turned in an encouraging outing against Arkansas, but the unit figures to be tested by an Ole Miss offence that averaged 38 points in its first three wins.

The Aggies have used a balanced offence to score at least 40 points in each of their first five games for the first time in school history. Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel (pictured) leads the SEC in total offence with 361 yards per game, and sophomore Mike Evans ranks third in the country in receiving yards at 138 yards per game. Defensive back Deshazor Everett has scored a touchdown in each of the last two games and is second on the team with 31 tackles. The Rebels begin a stretch of six straight home games against a Texas A&M team that is seeking its 10th straight road win. Junior quarterback Bo Wallace threw for a season-high 336 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions last week against Auburn, but the Rebels will need a more balanced attack in order to keep Manziel off the field. Ole Miss boasts the SEC’s No. 2 pass defence, but the Rebels’ defensive line has been hit by a wave of injuries in recent weeks.

Suggested bets: Game total +78.5 (three units @ $1.91) WIN, Texas A&M -6.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (41-38)

Other tips (two units)

Troy @ Georgia State +17.5 $1.93 WIN (35-28) 

Miami Ohio @ Massachusetts -3.5 $1.95 WIN (10-17) 

Oklahoma @ Texas +12.5 $1.91 LOSE +55 $1.91 WIN (20-36)

Western Carolina @ Auburn -41.5 WIN (3-62) 

California +24.5 $1.98 @ UCLA LOSE (10-37) 

Central Michigan @ Ohio +53 $1.94 LOSE (26-23)

Alabama @ Kentucky +51.5 $1.94 WIN (48-7)

Other tips (one unit)

Stanford @ Utah +7.5 $1.94 WIN (21-27)
Missouri @ Georgia +64 $1.89 WIN (41-26) 
Florida @ LSU -7.5 $1.91 WIN (6-17)
Boise State @ Utah State +6.5 $1.91 LOSE (34-23) 
San Jose State @ Colorado State +59.5 $1.91 WIN (34-27)
Memphis @ Houston -9.5 $2.00 WIN (15-25) 
Tulsa -10.5 $2.01 @ UTEP (1) +65.5 $2.00
Hawaii +9.5 $1.87 @ UNLV WIN (37-39) 
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech -8.5 $2.00 WIN (9-19)
Nebraska -13.5 $1.91 @ Purdue WIN (44-7) 
Baylor -17 $1.84 @ Kansas State LOSE (35-25) 
Akron @ Northern Illinois -23.5 $1.96 LOSE (20-27) 
Georgia Tech @ BYU -7 $1.89 WIN (20-38) 
East Carolina @ Tulane +10.5 $1.94 WIN (33-36) 
Kent State +14.5 $1.85 @ Ball State WIN (24-27)
Kansas @ TCU -45 $2.00 WIN (17-27) 
New Mexico @ Wyoming +71 $1.98 LOSE (31-38)
Oregon -11.5 $1.91 WIN @ Washington -75 $1.85 WIN (45-24) 
Colorado @ Arizona State +67 $1.94 PUSH (13-54) 
Eastern Michigan @ Army -7.5 $1.94 WIN (25-50)

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