Daily tips for November 1

Note: Bets are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT).


A-League (round 4) for November 1

Western Sydney Wanderers (1-2-0) v Adelaide United (1-1-1), Pirtek Stadium, Parramatta, Friday, November 1, 7.30pm

All the public money is with the Wanderers here but the visitors Adelaide United will be confident of taking something home from the opening game of round four in the A-League. If the brief history between the two clubs is anything to go by then there should be a goals here. Tony Popovic's side hit six and four past the Reds in their last two matches last season, including a 6-1 drubbing in Sydney. The home side head into this one full of confidence after a comprehensive 2-0 win in the derby last weekend and should be boosted by the return of classy midfielder Aaron Mooy (concussion). Winger Youssouf Hersi is out due to a foot injury, with Labinot Haliti or Shannon Cole likely to slot in on the right wing. The Wanderers squad has even greater depth than their debut campaign meaning some of their stars can't even crack it for a spot on the bench!

Adelaide have shown encouraging signs over the first three weeks but dished up their worst performance so far in going down 1-0 to champions Central Coast last weekend. The Reds are sweating over the fitness of leading scorer Jeronimo, who missed the loss to the Mariners, and playmaker Marcelo Carrusca (groin). The pair have trained strongly this week and could make the trip to Sydney. Defender Cassio (quad), Bruce Djite (ankle) and Daniel Bowles (ankle) are others under injury clouds and are expected to miss the match. The likes of Jon McKain, Nigel Boogaard and Osama Malik will need to keep a close watch on the 34-year-old Japanese playmaker Shinji Ono (pictured) or it could be another tough night for the Adelaide defence. After a great performance in round 1, Adelaide have found the going tough in the past fortnight, with coach Josep Gombau pleading for time for his style to take shape. The Reds have no issues retaining possession, but they’ve rarely threatened goal.

Confirmed bet

Western Sydney Wanderers WIN v Adelaide United (two units @ $1.63) WIN (2-1)

Leans

Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United +2.5 $1.75 WIN (2-1)

Western Sydney Wanderers v Adelaide United (correct score 2-1) $8.00 WIN (2-1)

Racing for November 1

Horse racing: Wodonga (Vic), Bathurst (NSW), Moree (NSW), Moonee Valley – night), Kilcoy (Qld). Harness racing: Redcliffe (Qld), Penrith (NSW), Mildura (Vic). Greyhound racing:  Bendigo (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Gawler (SA), Geelong (Vic), Casino (NSW), Mandurah (WA), The Gardens (NSW), Wagga (NSW).

It’s the calm before the storm – a modest Friday of racing lies ahead of tomorrow’s opening day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington. After a decidedly cool opening to spring, the weather looks perfect for Saturday with a temperature of approximately 28C expected. I often caution against listening to the advice of experts in the mainstream media, who come out of the woodwork at this time of year with their insights. My advice, as always, is to ignore them all (and that includes comments from trainers, owners and jockeys). When it comes to experts, my favourite spruiker of the Melbourne Cup Carnival is Flemington track manager ‘Misinformation’ Mick Goodie. His latest gem came this morning when he ridiculed those who think dead (5) tracks should be the norm in the spring.

With a completely straight face, Goodie then explained to the Racing Network that 5mls of water had been applied to the Flemington track last night, with the aim of presenting a dead (4), improving to a good (3), during the day. Unless Goodie has been promoted to God-like status, there is yet to be a watering system devised that ensures an even spread of water across a race track, so punters are guaranteed that there’ll be fast and slow alleys, as is the case every year. I also expect that the trend of on-pace/leader bias will dominate on Derby and Cup days, with run-on/backmarker bias taking over later in the week. And as always, I recommend to punters (even once-a-year Cup tipsters) to do your own homework, and then you’ll only have yourself to blame if your tips don’t come home. No-one punishes the ‘experts’ if they’re wrong, so they have no interest in whether or not you win or lose. This is the hardest time of the year to find winners with confidence.

Confirmed bets

Wodonga R2 Exacta 7/2 (two units) WIN ($2.00)

Moree R3 #3 Kyogle Town (win) LOSE (2nd)

Leans

Bathurst R4 #11 Empress Ayleah (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Bathurst R7 #1 Hollywood Drive (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.40)

Wodonga R5 #7 Yougopowpow (E/W 1x2) 3rd (NTD)
Moree R5 #1 Booked Out (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.40/$1.30)

Kilcoy R1 #5 Lisa Fashionista (win) 1st ($1.70)

Kilcoy R4 #1 Bam’s Boy (win) LOSE (U/P)

Moonee Valley R4 #10 Use The Lot (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.50)

Moonee Valley R7 #12 Paige’s Boy (E/W 1x3)

Note: My Derby Day preview will be posted by 11am tomorrow (Saturday)

NBA for November 1

Golden State Warriors (1-0, 0-0 away) @ Los Angeles Clippers (0-1, 0-0 home), STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA, Friday, November 1, 1.40pm

The Los Angeles Clippers endured a disappointing season debut under new coach Doc Rivers, especially at the defensive end. The Clippers will look to avoid falling into an early hole in the Pacific Division when they host the Golden State Warriors on Halloween evening. Rivers built strong defensive teams with the Boston Celtics but watched his Clippers struggle mightily in a season-opening loss to the LA Lakers. The Clippers held a slim lead for most of its opener before being blown out in the fourth quarter by the Lakers’ bench in a 116-103 setback. Blake Griffin scored 19 points but struggled on the defensive end while the Clippers were outrebounded. Los Angeles is working in newcomers J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley and had the two split time with Matt Barnes and Jamal Crawford. Despite missing eight of his 13 shots, Chris Paul added 15 points and 11 assists. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the past five between these rivals while the Clippers are a lousy 1-6 ATS in their past seven meetings against Golden State.

The Warriors had the opposite experience against the Lakers in their season opener, getting 38 points from Klay Thompson in a 125-94 blowout. Golden State controlled the glass despite restricting its entire frontcourt to 27 minutes or fewer. Golden State finished second to the Clippers in the Pacific Division in 2012-13 and is looking to challenge for the top spot this season after bringing in Andre Iguodala (pictured) to supplement the perimeter defence. Iguodala only scored seven points against the Lakers but helped spread the defence for Thompson while providing one of the highlights of the night on a behind-the-back give-and-go exchange with David Lee. The Warriors led the NBA in three-point percentage in 2012-13 and showed no signs of slowing down by burying 15-of-27 from beyond the arc in the opener, led by Thompson’s 5-of-7 performance. Golden State took three of the four meetings last season, with the lone loss coming at Los Angeles on January 5, 115-89. They averaged 106.0 points and shot 40.7 per cent on 3s in those games.

Confirmed bets

Golden State Warriors @ LA Clippers +204.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (115-126)

Leans

New York Knicks +8 $1.91 @ Chicago Bulls WIN (81-82)

Golden State Warriors +6 $1.91 @ LA Clippers LOSE (115-126)

Golden State Warriors TT +98.5 $1.87 @ LA Clippers WIN (115-126)

College Football (week 10) for November 1

Pac-12: Arizona State Sun Devils (5-2, 3-1 Pac-12) @ Washington State Cougars (4-4, 2-3 Pac-12), Martin Stadium, Pullman, WA, Friday, November 1, 1.30pm

Arizona State can take another step toward being the South Division representative in the Pac-12 title game when it visits pass-happy Washington State for a Halloween showdown. The Sun Devils hold a one-game lead over three teams in the division race and are averaging 56.3 points in three conference victories. Ironically, the Cougars have allowed an average of 56.3 in their three Pac-12 defeats. Arizona State made a statement in its last game, routing then-No. 20 Washington 53-24 for arguably its biggest win in two seasons under coach Todd Graham (pictured). But to keep rolling, Arizona State will have to do something it has struggled with in the past – winning on the road while making a rare visit to the cold of Washington. The Sun Devils have been solid at home under Graham, going 4-2 last season and 5-0 this season. Arizona State had a few bumps on the road last season and the Sun Devils haven’t spent much time away from the desert this season but have yet to win, losing 42-28 to then-No. 5 Stanford and 37-34 to Notre Dame in a neutral-site game.

Coach Mike Leach’s Washington State team is also coming off a bye and will be facing a ranked opponent for the second straight time after losing 62-38 at No. 2 Oregon on October 19. The Cougars have dropped three of four, allowing an average of 56.3 points in those defeats. They almost hit that mark last season in a 46-7 loss at Arizona State, which has won eight of nine in the series while averaging 35.0 points and holding Washington State to 16.0 per game. Washington State isn’t even attempting to establish a running game as Connor Halliday is being asked to air it out. The junior set school and conference records with 557 passing yards against the Ducks but was also picked off four times. Arizona State has a versatile attack with senior running back Marion Grice leading the nation with 18 total TDs. The Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their past six conference games while the Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games against teams with winning records.

Confirmed bets

Arizona State Sun Devils @ Washington State Cougars +70 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (55-21)

Rice Owls @ North Texas Mean Green -52.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (16-28)

Leans

South Florida Bulls @ Houston Cougars +54 WIN (23-35)

UL Monroe Warhawks at Troy Trojans +59.5 $1.91 WIN (49-37)

Rice Owls @ North Texas Mean Green -3.5 $1.91 WIN (16-28)

NHL for November 1

Buffalo Sabres (2-11-1, 5pts) @ New York Rangers (4-7-0, 8pts), Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, Friday, November 1, 10.10am

Neither the Sabres nor Rangers have enjoyed a terribly successful start to their respective campaigns so a win will be premium here for these cross-state rivals. Having matched their worst-ever start, the Sabres hope Matt Moulson can provide a spark. If his Buffalo debut was any indication, he should be able to help – provided he isn’t traded again! Moulson and the Sabres will face a Rangers club looking for its first home victory. The Sabres (2-11-1) come off a 4-3 home defeat to Dallas on Monday as they were unable to knock off Lindy Ruff, their winningest coach, after firing him in February. Moulson's debut provided a bright spot, with the forward scoring two goals after being acquired from the Islanders on Sunday in exchange for Thomas Vanek and a pair of draft picks. It's unclear how Moulson fits into Buffalo's plans past this season as his contract expires after 2013-14. For now, however, he appeared to fit in nicely on the team's top line with Cody Hodgson and Tyler Ennis. They’ve been outscored 19-2 in the first period, compared to 21-20 in the second and third.

The Rangers (4-7-0) made their long-awaited home debut on Monday (a result of ongoing renovations at Madison Square Garden) and lost 2-0 to Montreal. They sandwiched two road wins around that contest, the most recent a 3-2 victory over the Islanders on Tuesday. Forward Benoit Pouliot’s winning goal was his second goal in three games. New York’s two other scores came from Chris Kreider and Ryan McDonagh on power plays. The club had been 1 for 15 on power plays over their previous five games. More opportunities could be available against the Sabres, who have allowed five goals on 24 power-play chances over the last seven contests. Buffalo has scored one goal on 20 power-play chances away from home. Both teams are among the lowest-scoring in the league, with New York tallying 18 goals and Buffalo 23. Center Derek Stepan, who has seven points to trail Brad Richards (nine) for the team lead, has two goals and two assists in his last three meetings with the Sabres. This looks like a barren affair.

Confirmed bets

Buffalo Sabres @ New York Rangers -5 (one unit @ $1.74) WIN (0-2)

Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes WIN (one unit @ $1.68) WIN (4-5)

Leans

Anaheim Ducks @ Boston Bruins WIN $1.72 -5 $2.00 WIN (2-3)

Buffalo Sabres @ New York Rangers 1P -1.5 $1.67 WIN (0-1)

Nashville Predators @ Phoenix Coyotes TT +2.5 $1.66 WIN (4-5)

NFL (week 9) for November 1

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2, 2-2 away) @ Miami Dolphins (3-4, 1-2 home), Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL, Friday, November 1, 11.25am

In the interests of transparency, let me place my NFL allegiance to the Dolphins on the record, but I’m more than happy to recommend bettors lean to the visitors here. The Cincinnati Bengals are threatening to turn the AFC North into a runaway as they eye a fifth straight win when they visit Miami for the NFL’s Thursday Night Football. Cincinnati is coming off a superb performance, which featured a career-high five touchdown passes from Andy Dalton in a 49-9 mauling of the New York Jets. One of Cincinnati's concerns had been its reliance on the combination of Dalton to standout wide receiver A.J. Green, but fellow wideout Marvin Jones (pictured) went a long way to allaying those worries by hauling in a franchise-record four scoring catches in last Sunday’s rout. Dalton has rebounded from a pair of middling efforts against Cleveland and New England to throw for 1034 yards with 11 TDs and two interceptions in his past three. The Bengals are also getting it done on defence, tied for fifth in the league with 18.0 points allowed per game, but will likely be without linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee) for at least three weeks.

Miami, meanwhile, is in the midst of a major spiral, dropping its fourth straight game after blowing a 14-point half-time lead in a 27-17 defeat at New England on Sunday. So instead of thrusting themselves back into the AFC East race, the Dolphins are approaching must-win territory if they hope to remain in post-season contention. Wide receiver Brandon Gibson suffered a season-ending knee injury in the loss and, following the game, center Mike Pouncey was served with a grand jury subpoena in connection with the murder investigation of former Patriot Aaron Hernandez. The Dolphins churned out a season-high 156 yards rushing but still have not been able to protect quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-worst 32 times. The away team has won the past three meetings, including the Dolphins' 17-13 win in Week 5 last season, but the road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings and the Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their past 17 games overall. As the pressure for wins has increased, Tannehill has thrown five TDs in the past two games, but seven of his nine interceptions have come in the past four.

Confirmed bet

Cincinnati Bengals WIN (two units @ $1.60) LOSE (20-22)

Leans

Game total +43 $1.91 LOSE (20-22)

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