Daily tips for July 7

AFL (R15) for July 7

Melbourne v Sydney (MCG, Sunday, July 7, 1.10pm AEST)

The Demons fell over the line with little conviction last week but a win’s a win for a side that had managed just one victory for the season. In contrast, the Swans ground out a meritorious victory at a sodden SCG over the Blues and will be confident of victory here despite a less than impressive record at the MCG. They’ve won just three of their past 14, although they knocked over Collingwood here in round nine. Demons co-captain Jack Grimes has been named on an extended bench while the Swans may regain the services of Shane Mumford and Sam Reid. Melbourne looks a different side under Neil Craig with the players’ confidence increasing each week. They won’t win, but we’re expecting they’ll continue to improve on their previous poor scoring output.

Suggested bet: Game total +174.5 WIN (85-116)

Fremantle v St Kilda (Patersons Stadium, Sunday, July 7, 3.20pm AEST)

How’s this for a list of inclusions for the Dockers? Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands, Michael Barlow, David Mundy and emerging defender Lee Spurr are all a chance to return for the visit of the struggling Saints. That Freo remain in contention for a top four spot having endured such a long list of injuries is testament to the club’s depth and player management. The Saints may have won five of their past six in Perth, and four out of their last five against the Dockers, but that all ends here. So far in 2013 at Patersons Stadium, Fremantle’s opposition is averaging only 60-points per game and three teams have finished with six goals or less. Throw in the loss of Nick Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke and it’s hard to find an avenue to goal for the Saints but the line is too high.

Suggested bet: St Kilda +57 WIN, game total -156.5 LOSE (100-70)

Essendon v Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium, Sunday, July 7, 4.40pm AEST)

Port Adelaide have beaten Sydney and Collingwood in successive weeks at home, but there’s not much respect for those wins here with the Bombers rated a four-goal favourite. This may be a minority view among punters but I’m growing increasingly sceptical of betting on Essendon games. It’s abundantly clear that the supplements program stretched well beyond ‘anti-obesity peptides’. Worse still, a cloud hangs over the 40 premiership points that the side has amassed so far this year. Regardless of your point of view, the playing field is not even in Essendon games. Despite their stellar form since the mid-season break, Port have lost their past seven at Etihad and probably lose here as well but should cover while the ‘over’ also looks a solid play.

Suggested bet: Port Adelaide +21.5 LOSE, game total +182.5 WIN (118-88)

MLB for July 6

Los Angeles Dodgers (41-44, 16-23 away) @ San Francisco Giants (39-46, 24-16 home), AT&T Park, San Francisco, CA, Sunday, July 7, 9.15am

If the Los Angeles Dodgers are to continue their current surge, they might have to do it without one of their key players. The Dodgers could be minus outfielder Matt Kemp when they try to hand the host San Francisco Giants a fifth straight loss. After losing five straight in the series, Los Angeles has won four in a row over a San Francisco team that’s tallied 28 runs while dropping 12 of 14. With Kemp day to day, Carl Crawford could see more time after his return on Friday from missing more than a month with a hamstring injury.

Los Angeles looks to stay hot against San Francisco starter Madison Bumgarner (8-5, 3.08 ERA), who is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his past five starts. Bumgarner, who threw 16 straight scoreless innings against the Dodgers prior to last week’s start, is 6-3 with a 2.54 ERA in nine starts versus the NL West rival. The Dodgers counter with right-hander Stephen Fife (3-2, 2.83), who allowed four hits in seven scoreless innings of a 6-1 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Bumgarner’s good, but the Giants can’t score at the moment so the Dodgers look reasonable value here.

Suggested bet: Dodgers WIN (one unit @ $2.65) LOSE, game total -7 (two units @ $1.95) WIN (4-2)

Other tips

IL: Mariners WIN $2.90 @ Reds LOSE (4-13)

AL: Orioles @ Yankees WIN $1.80 WIN (4-5)

AL: Twins @ Blue Jays -9 $2.05 WIN (6-0)

AL: Tigers @ Indians WIN $2.25 LOSE (9-4)

AL: White Sox @ Rays WIN $1.75 WIN -7 $1.80 WIN (0-3)

AL: Astros @ Rangers -1.5 $1.65 LOSE (9-5)

NL: Marlins +1.5 $1.74 @ Cardinals WIN (4-5)

NL: Pirates WIN $1.75 @ Cubs LOSE (1-4)

NL: Padres @ Nationals WIN $1.44 WIN -8.5 $2.00 LOSE (4-5)

NL: Braves @ Phillies -8.5 $2.00 LOSE (13-4)

NL: Mets WIN @ Brewers +8 WIN (6-7)

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