AFL (week 1 finals) for September 6
Among the hoary old chestnuts regularly rolled out
before the AFL finals is that “the real season starts now”. This is half-true.
Casting aside the “one week at a time” clichés, the top four (and to a lesser
extent Richmond and Collingwood) started physically preparing for the finals from
the start of August. This comprises up to two weeks of intense work followed by
another two weeks of tapering. If you’ve never witnessed AFL training sessions
during the finals, they are positively pedestrian compared to the first half of
the season. This off-field approach to the AFL finals has several crucial
applications to betting. Firstly, Carlton faces a mighty task to progress past
Richmond. The Blues’ finals spot wasn’t secured until the last minute of round
23, while the Tigers sealed their position more than a month ago.
Secondly, the statistical data gathered in the past
4-5 weeks should be considered separately from that of the first four and a
half months of the season. Fremantle is a perfect example – having established
a game-style that ensured a flow of victories against both good and poor teams,
Ross Lyon’s side has shown a far more attacking approach in recent weeks, as
they’ll need to kick bigger scores to compete with the likes of Geelong and
Hawthorn. In contrast, Sydney looks highly unlikely to go back-to-back as
they’ve been unable to push many of their key players through this crucial
lead-up due to injury.
One last caveat ahead of the finals – as hard as it
may be (especially for one very anxious Tiger fan), ignore as much mainstream
media coverage as possible and take no notice of anything that an AFL coach
utters during a media conference. There’s simply not enough content to fill all
the space so minor hamstring strains will be given the coverage worthy of an
amputation! Unless you have a direct line to the coach or club doctor, take all
selection news and injury reports with a grain of salt. It looms as a great
finals series with at least three legitimate premiership threats and still
reasonable value among the leading contenders if you’re yet to dip your toe
into the pond.
First Qualifying Final:
Hawthorn (19-3) v Sydney (15-1-6), MCG, Friday, September 6, 7.30pm AEST
If
there’s to be a blowout in the opening week of the finals, this is the most
likely spot. Swans coach John Longmire somehow steered his side into the top
four despite a debilitating injury list in the second half of the year but Adam Goodes, Rhyce Shaw, Sam Reid,
Lewis Roberts-Thomson and Alex Johnson – all of who featured in last year’s
finals – will still be absent here. Lewis Jetta has made the trip but is barely
50/50 to play while Daniel Hannebery is also way below his best. Sydney has
lost three of its last four matches heading into the finals and has a poor
record against top-four opposition this season, failing to win any of its five
contests against the competition’s best sides. The Swans poor record at the
MCG, losing eight of their past 12 games at the home of football, also does
nothing to inspire confidence.
Here’s one for trivia buffs – on four occasions in
the past 40 years (1971, 1988, 1989 and 2013), the Hawks have finished with a
19-3 home and away record and claimed the Coleman Medal. In those other three
years, Hawthorn won the flag. Since the Hawks lost the 2012 Grand Final to
Sydney, there’s been a clear focus on going one better this year. Alistair
Clarkson steered his side to two home and away wins over the Swans this year
including a come-from-behind victory at ANZ Stadium last week. Buddy Franklin
misses here (the Hawks have won 11 of 12 without him) while Cyril Rioli is also
unlikely to start but they have the depth to cover their absences, while Brent
Guerra and Max Bailey also return here. Clarkson also has more options to
rotate players in key defensive forward and rebounding half-back roles, and
just look too strong here.
Suggested bet: Hawthorn -10.5 (two units @ $1.91)
Horse racing: Geelong (Vic), Wyong (NSW), Cairns
(Qld), Port Macquarie (NSW). Harness racing: Mildura (Vic), Wagga (NSW), Newcastle
(NSW), Melton (Vic), Gold Coast (Qld), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester Park (WA),
Kalgoorlie (WA). Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo
(Vic), The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld), Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW),
Mandurah (WA).
Every
September, the Birdsville Races kick-start the regional Simpson Desert Racing
Carnival. The first race meeting was held in 1882 as an event for stock horses.
Except for a period during World War II, the Birdsville Races have only been
cancelled once and that was during the equine influenza outbreak. That didn't stop
partygoers, and entertainment and festivities continued throughout the weekend.
The carnival includes a 12-race program and prize money of more than $110,000.
The 1600m claypan track is one of only four tracks in Queensland that run
anti-clockwise. The annual race meeting raises funds for the Royal Flying
Doctor Service.
Daily tips
Geelong R2 #6 Stormy’s
Dream (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.70)
Geelong R4 #11 Melrose Place (win) LOSE (4th)Geelong R7 #9 Worth A Ransom (win) 1st ($1.70)
Geelong R8 #4 Samapinga (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.40/$1.70)
Wyong R1 #2 Sky Prince (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.00)
Wyong R5 #5 Quick’s The Word (E/W 1x3) 2nd ($1.80)
Wyong R6 #1 Hidden Kisses (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Wyong R7 #5 Sacred Flyer (win) LOSE (U/P)
Port Macquarie R3 #5 Ms Wicked Wanda (win) LOSE (3rd)
Port Macquarie R4 #4 Rich Megastar (win) LOSE (U/P)
Port Macquarie R6 #2 Relishing (win) LOSE (U/P)
Cairns R3 #3 Hot Saga (win) 1st ($3.80)
Cairns R7 #1 Electric Blue (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($1.60)
Harness racing tip: Melton R7 #11 Bitobliss (win) 1st ($1.60)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R3 #1 Double Trigger (win) 1st ($2.20)
NCAAF (week 2) for September 5-6
Conference USA: Florida Atlantic (0-1) @ East
Carolina (1-0), Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC, Friday, September 6, 9.30am
East Carolina is one of the holdovers and one of the
2013 favorites in the new-look Conference USA. After winning last week against
Old Dominion, conference play will start up here before two big non-conference
challenges against prominent ACC teams to close out September. East Carolina
finished 8-5 last season despite losing its bowl game and head coach Ruffin
McNeill has a veteran team back in action for his fourth season leading the
Pirates. Last week, the Pirates won 52-38 at home against Old Dominion, a team
transitioning to the FBS level. The Monarchs won 11 games last season, so it
was certainly a decent opening test for East Carolina and the Pirates are a
bigger favorite this week despite this being a conference game. East Carolina
is a pass-first team led by junior QB Shane Carden and after throwing for over
3100 yards last season, Carden tossed for 447 yards and five touchdowns in the
opener.
He completed over 85 per cent of his passes, which is
even more impressive considering there were 54 attempts last week. Florida
Atlantic earned a narrow cover last Saturday night in a 34-6 loss at Miami. The
Owls were out-gained by an over 2:1 margin, allowing over 500 yards with Miami
rushing for 303 yards on 8.0 yards per carry. Florida Atlantic does have an
experienced defence and the Owls hung within two scores until late in the third
quarter last week. FAU has an experienced secondary and actually held opponents
to just 55 per cent passing last season, so the style of play from the Pirates
may be easier for the Owls to handle compared with the rushing attack that was
displayed by the Hurricanes. Florida Atlantic could again struggle on offense
however, even going against a far less talented defence. The Owls did have some
success moving the ball, completing 18 first downs in the game despite scoring
only six points.
Suggested bet: FAU +19 (two units @ $1.91) WIN, game total
+56.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (13-31)
MLB for September 6
Boston
Red Sox (84-57, 37-32 away) @ New York Yankees (75-64, 43-28 home), Yankee
Stadium, New York, NY, Friday, September 6, 9.05am
One thing is certain since Ryan
Dempster drilled Alex Rodriguez last month – the New York Yankees are slowly
but surely climbing into playoff contention. The Yankees and visiting Red Sox
meet for the first time here since that incident, which may have boosted New
York in its playoff push. There is always an added level of intrigue when these
rivals meet. That’s even more the case since the Yankees’ 9-6 victory at Boston
on August 18. Dempster hit Rodriguez with a 3-0 pitch in the second inning of
that finale of a heated series.
The Yankees (75-64) trailed Tampa Bay
by 6 1/2 games after that contest, and have narrowed that gap to 2 1/2 for the
AL’s second wild card by winning 11 of 16 since after sweeping three games from
the White Sox this week. Boston (84-57) leads third-place New York by eight
games in the AL East. This match-up of right-handers seems to favor New York
since it has won six straight starts by Ivan Nova (8-4, 2.88 ERA) while Boston
starter Jake Peavy (11-5, 3.91) has lost all four prior outings versus the
Yankees.
Nova went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in six
August starts to earn AL pitcher of the month honors, tossing a three-hitter
Saturday for his first career shutout in a 2-0 victory over Baltimore. He's 2-1
with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts versus Boston, with Dustin Pedroia 4 for
8 against him. Peavy, who owns a 3.96 career ERA against the Yankees, is 3-1
with a 3.18 ERA in six starts since Boston acquired him July 30 from the White
Sox. Derek Jeter is 0 for 8 against Peavy, his worst mark against any active
pitcher.
Suggested
bet: Yankees WIN (1.5 units @ $2.02) LOSE, game total +8.5 (1.5 units
@ $1.92) WIN (9-8)
Other
tips
AL: Mariners @ Royals WIN $1.63 WIN +9
$1.95 WIN (6-7)
AL: White Sox $2.44 @ Orioles LOSE (1-3)
AL: White Sox $2.44 @ Orioles LOSE (1-3)
AL: Rays @ Angels +1.5 $1.91 WIN (2-6)
AL: Astros @ Athletics -1.5 $1.80 LOSE (3-2)
NL: Cards @ Reds WIN $1.74 WIN +8 $1.96 PUSH (2-6)
NL: D'backs WIN $1.95 @ Giants WIN (4-2)
NFL (week 1) for September 5-6
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos, Sports Authority
Field at Mile High, Denver, CO, Friday, September 6, 10.30am
The Denver Broncos have had nearly eight months to
stew over a stunning season-ending loss in January – one that propelled the
Baltimore Ravens on their surprising run to a Super Bowl title. Denver has a
chance to exact some revenge when they host the Ravens in the NFL's
season-opening game. Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning had won nine straight
against the Ravens, including a 17-point rout a month earlier, before
Baltimore's 38-35 double-overtime playoff victory. The Broncos opened at -9 and
were bet up as large as -10.5 at some books. Recent action has been on the
Ravens and has dropped the spread to as low as -7 at some markets. The total
opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48.5.
Manning guided Denver to the No. 1 seed in the
playoffs and 11 consecutive wins to close the regular season after sitting out
2011 due to multiple neck surgeries. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker
both went over 1000 yards and combined for 179 catches and 23 touchdowns and
will be joined by reception machine Wes Welker, who had at least 111 catches in
five of six seasons with New England. Rookie running back Montee Ball set the
FBS record for career touchdowns but will open the season as the back-up to
Ronnie Hillman. Denver also has a huge void to plug on defence after
sack-master Von Miller was suspended six games for violating the league’s drug
policy.
Much has changed for both teams since Flacco averted a certain defeat with a 70-yard tying touchdown
strike to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds to play in regulation. Baltimore has
undergone a dramatic roster overhaul, with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis retiring, perennial Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed lost to free agency
and the trade of Super Bowl hero Anquan Boldin to San Francisco. Flacco became
the league’s highest-paid player, while Denver added some key pieces to fortify
Manning's offence.
Flacco's regular-season numbers were ordinary (3817 yards with 22 TD passes and
10 interceptions) but he was off the charts in the post-season with 11 scoring
passes and zero picks en route to winning Super Bowl MVP honors. Third-year
speedster Torrey Smith heads an inexperienced receiving corps that suffered a
jolt when starting tight end Dennis Pitta dislocated his hip, putting his
season in jeopardy. Ray Rice has rushed for at least 1143 yards in four
straight seasons and leads all NFL backs with 278 receptions during that span,
but questions abound on a defence that surrendered nearly five points more per
game in 2012 than in the previous season.
Suggested bet: Baltimore +7.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE,
game total +48.5 (two units @ $1.91) WIN (27-49)
• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.
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