NRL (week 2 finals) for September 20
These combatants share one of the strongest and
fiercest rivalries in the history of rugby league. The animosity dates back to
the 1970s, when the Sea Eagles and Sharks played out the hard-fought “bar-room
brawl” that was the 1973 grand final, as well as the 1978 decider which was
ultimately decided in a replay. There’s certainly no love lost between these two
fierce rivals in the Battle of the Beaches, a war in which the Sea Eagles hold
the upper hand with 56 victories from 81 matches. This season Manly have
somehow flown under the radar of their NRL opponents – the tried-and-tested
team, the 2011 premiers, have won 15 of their 25 matches all season on the back
of a hard-working and committed forward pack and the effectiveness and
excellence of one of the best backlines of the modern era. The Sharks,
meanwhile, have done anything but fly under the radar in 2013 – on the back of
the much-publicised ASADA investigation, they’ve found themselves in the
headlines (on the front and back pages) more weeks than any other side in the
NRL.
The Sharks have won 15 of 25 matches just like the
Sea Eagles, and have recorded a four-match winning streak as well as four
bunches of back-to-back victories. The Sea Eagles loss to the Roosters last
week was one of the more brutal encounters of the season but they'll take some
positives in holding the Roosters to just four points; and while losing 4-0
they did create chances against the best defence in the competition, doing so
without their attacking ace Brett Stewart who is still unavailable here. The
Sharks controversial win over the Cowboys has come at a cost with Carney’s
hamstring very likely ruling him out which will make life very tough on attack
given the strength of the Manly defence.
This should be a bruising battle – and one that really tests the skill
and knowledge of coaches Toovey and Flanagan, too. Both sides have their
strengths (Manly’s backline and Cronulla’s forward pack), and how they go about
both utilising and nullifying these will prove pivotal but I have a big lean to
the Sea Eagles here.
Suggested bet: Manly -10 (two units @ $1.91)
If I had a dollar for every expert who’s tipped
either Geelong or Sydney to win either of this week’s preliminary finals, I’d
barely have enough for a McHappy Meal. As mentioned last week, the preliminary
final favourites have form, depth and history on their side. A massive 23 of
the past 26 preliminary finals have been won by sides that earned a week’s rest
after winning a qualifying final. But there have been a few scares along the
way – two years ago, Collingwood fell over the line against Hawthorn after
trailing all day. The Hawks themselves were pushed to the wire by Adelaide last
year. Blowouts are also rare, with Geelong’s win over Collingwood by 73
points in 2009 the last time a team was put to the sword.
First Preliminary Final:
Hawthorn (19-3) v Geelong (18-4), MCG, Friday, September 20, 7.50pm AEST
The public money started flowing for the Hawks as
soon as the market opened, and has barely let up all week. Sure, Hawthorn has
history on its side but to simply ignore the fact that they’ve failed to beat
Geelong in five years is tempting fate. In that period, the biggest margin
between the two sides is 19 points and only four times has either side broken
the 100-point mark. First, the positives for Hawthorn – they’re rested, are
virtually at full strength and clinically dispatched of Sydney in the first
week of the finals. Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli return to the side and there
appears to be a steely resolve for the club to eradicate the ‘Kennett Curse’
once and for all. For that to occur, though, there needs to be change of
strategy in the coaches’ box. The Hawks always struggle if they’re unable to
centre the ball coming off half back. Opposition sides know to load the centre
of defence. Additionally, many opposition sides are happy for Franklin to roam
wide on the flanks. He’s a worse than 50/50 proposition kicking for goal and
wastes too many of his side’s forward 50 entries.
Suggested bet: Manly -10 (two units @ $1.91)
AFL (week 3 finals) for September 20
The fascinating aspect of this weekend’s match-ups is
that the favourites – Hawthorn and Fremantle – are hosting sides against which
they’ve generally struggled in recent times. The Hawks’ woes against Geelong
are well documented with the Cats’ winning streak at 11 since the 2008 Grand
Final. The Swans have won six of their past 10 against Freo, and had the
Dockers on the ropes in round eight this year before conceding a 27-point
finals quarter lead with just 10 minutes to play. From a betting perspective, I
have both favourites overpriced by at least one goal, generating some nice
value for punters on the penultimate weekend of footy for the season. That
said, I’m expecting a mélange of gold, brown and purple to be on show at the
MCG next Saturday.
The Cats have some headaches of their own. Harry
Taylor and Tom Lonergan have generally dominated Jarryd Roughead and Franklin
in past meetings, but the Geelong defence must also find match-ups for Jack
Gunston and Luke Breust. Lonergan and Jared Rivers are both a long way from 100
per cent fitness. The absence of Corey Enright won’t help either. At the other
end of the park, Tom Hawkins is also carrying an injury while Paul Chapman, who
played a starring role in last week’s win over Sydney, is out suspended.
However, the Cats were well short of their best 22 in round 15, and still
managed to dispatch of the Hawks by 10 points making it two from two for the
season having also defeated Hawthorn on Easter Monday. That’s because a crucial
aspect of Geelong’s dominance – its extreme pressure around the ground – isn’t
overly dependent on individual talent. And as shown in round 15, the Cats have
x-factors like Jordan Murdoch (returning here) who can make their mark when
needed. I’m going against the tide of money and picking Geelong at the line,
and won’t be the slightest bit surprised by an upset result here.
Racing for September 20
Horse racing: Ararat
(Vic), Ipswich (Qld),
Grafton (NSW), Bathurst (NSW). Harness racing: Gold Coast (Qld), Wagga
(NSW), Melton (Vic),
Bathurst (NSW), Port Pirie (SA), Gloucester
Park (WA), Kalgoorlie (WA).
Greyhound racing: Casino (NSW), Gawler (SA), Bendigo (Vic),
The Gardens (NSW), Ipswich (Qld),
Geelong (Vic), Wentworth Park (NSW), Mandurah
(WA).
I came across this piece on the
Letsgohorseracing blog, relating to the parlous state of wagering in the
Sunshine State – and we thought the corporates were bad!
"Many believe that punters get robbed every Saturday they bet on
Brisbane racing but the latest act of the Queensland-based TattsBet takes the
cake. Those who took the shorts on champion mare Atlantic Jewel won the
handsome dividend of ‘money back.’ That’s right – for every dollar they
invested that could have been lost punters did not receive one extra cent in
return for backing a winner.
Of course TattsBet will argue that
they have some antiquated rule (slanted to suit their profits) that ensures
they don’t have to pay more than $1 when the investment on one horse reaches a
majority percentage of the pool. But in the eyes of any punter that
is downright fraud. If they are going to invest without the hope of winning
then TattsBet should be betting ‘favourite out’ and refunding all monies bet on
long odds-on favourites that punters couldn’t win on under their rules before
the race is run.
And racing industry officials wonder
why punters are deserting in droves TABs like TattsBet (that they rely on for
prizemoney) and opening accounts instead with corporate betting agencies (whose
profits head offshore). To add insult to injury, Racing
Queensland is reportedly only allowed (apparently the Government has interfered
which is an absolute joke) to negotiate the new TAB deal with TattsBet. How’s
that for backing a loser?
Over $60,000 was bet on the TattsBet
win pool for the Group 2 Stocks Stakes on Saturday but punters got the
magnificent return of $1 for their win investment. Fixed Odds with the same TAB
paid $1.05, which was still short of the official starting price of Atlantic
Jewel at $1.06. In comparison the NSW TAB, which
held almost $116,000 in its win pool on the race, paid $1.04 the win and $1.06
fixed odds. The Victoria TAB, with a win pool of $194,000 on the race, also
paid $1.04 and $1.06 fixed odds.
Some of the corporate operators bet
as much as $1.10 about Atlantic Jewel and accepted plenty of $10,000 bets. Many
of them refund punters’ investments when they believe that clients do not get a
fair go. This has happened on numerous occasions in sports betting. You don’t
have to be Einstein to realise why TattsBet is regarded as a standing joke by
the majority of punters and why industry stakeholders are bewildered that a
supposed independent RQ Board is not allowed to negotiate the best possible
deal with all eligible parties but permitted itself to be backed into a
monopoly arrangement."
Daily tips
Ararat R3 #3 Bian Divine (win) 1st ($1.50)
Harness racing tip: Melton R8 #5 Elegant Image (win)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R1 #5 Avondale Zena (win)
AL: Seattle Mariners (67-85, 34-43 away) @ Detroit
Tigers (88-64, 48-29 home), Comerica Park, Detroit, MI, Friday, September 20, 3.10am
The Detroit Tigers missed a chance to move even
closer to an AL Central title with a lacklustre performance against the Seattle
Mariners. They’re hoping to avoid a repeat against red-hot rookie James Paxton.
Paxton will seek his third win in as many major league starts (and third
against a playoff contender) while trying to keep the Tigers’ magic number stuck
at five. After batting .295 and scoring 29 runs during a 6-1 stretch, Detroit
(88-64) was limited to four hits in an 8-0 defeat to Seattle (67-85) yesterday.
The Tigers, though, had their magic number to clinch the division reduced after
Cleveland fell 7-2 in Kansas City. Detroit, which has been shut out three times
in its last seven home games, could have a difficult time regaining its hitting
stroke if Paxton (2-0, 0.75 ERA) continues his impressive start to his career.
The left-hander held NL Central-leading St. Louis scoreless for six innings in
a 4-1 victory on Sunday. He gave up two hits and two walks while striking out
five in that game after allowing two runs and four hits over six innings in his
major league debut, a 6-2 win against Tampa Bay on September 7.
Suggested bet: Detroit WIN (3.5 units @ $1.55) WIN, game
total -8.5 (1.5 units @ $1.95) LOSE (4-5)
Other tips (early games)
NL: Padres @ Pirates WIN $1.57 WIN (1-10)
NL: Giants WIN $1.68 @ Mets WIN (2-1)
Ararat R8 #3 Jahan (E/W 1x3) 3rd ($2.10)
Bathurst R1 #6 Sheza Roughie (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.10/$1.40)
Bathurst R3 #5 Miss Tenpins (win) 1st ($2.00)
Bathurst R5 #3 Dashexpress (E/W 1x3) 1st ($2.00/$1.40)
Bathurst R8 #5 Domuar Miss (win) LOSE (2nd)
Grafton R4 #4 Strombo (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Grafton R5 #2 I’m Adamant (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Grafton R8 #5 Tabliope (E/W 1x2) 3rd ($1.90)
Ipswich R5 #1 General Son (win) 1st ($4.10)
Harness racing tip: Melton R8 #5 Elegant Image (win)
Greyhound racing tip: Wentworth Park R1 #5 Avondale Zena (win)
MLB for September 20
In this outing, Paxton will pitch opposite Doug
Fister (12-9, 3.67), who is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two lifetime starts against
his former team. Fister (pictured) played his first two-plus seasons in Seattle before
being traded to Detroit in July 2011. The right-hander earned that lone win
against the Mariners in his only matchup this season, a 6-2 road victory April
16 after giving up two runs and four hits over seven innings. Fister is 1/3
with a 4.50 ERA in his last four outings but suffered a 1-0 defeat against
Kansas City on Saturday. He gave up the lone run in the first of his 7 2/3
innings, and Prince Fielder was thrown at the plate to end that game. Fister
has received a combined six runs over his last four starts, and his lone win
was a 3-0 victory in Boston on September 2. Kendrys Morales is 3 for 12
lifetime versus Fister but the three hits are two doubles and a home run. Raul
Ibanez has a triple and a double in his six at-bats against the right-hander.
NL: Padres @ Pirates WIN $1.57 WIN (1-10)
NL: Giants WIN $1.68 @ Mets WIN (2-1)
NL: Cubs @ Brewers WIN $1.71 LOSE (5-1)
NL: Cardinals WIN $1.61 @ Rockies LOSE (6-7)
NL: Dodgers WIN $2.04 WIN @ D'backs -8.5 $2.02 LOSE (7-6)
Other tips (late games)
AL: Astros @ Indians -1.5 $1.83 LOSE (1-2)
AL: Yankees WIN $1.81 @ Blue Jays LOSE (2-6)
AL: Orioles @ Red Sox WIN $1.76 WIN (1-3)
Other tips (late games)
AL: Astros @ Indians -1.5 $1.83 LOSE (1-2)
AL: Yankees WIN $1.81 @ Blue Jays LOSE (2-6)
AL: Orioles @ Red Sox WIN $1.76 WIN (1-3)
AL: Rangers WIN $1.86 WIN @ Rays -6.5 $1.88 LOSE (8-2)
AL: Twins @ Athletics WIN $1.49 WIN (6-8)
NL: Marlins @ Nationals -1.5 $2.02 LOSE -7 $1.98 WIN (2-3)
NCAAF (week 4) for September 20
The Tigers have won eight of the last nine meetings, but were upset during their last visit to Raleigh in 2011. Clemson lost its second-leading receiver for the season when junior Charone Peake suffered a torn ACL during practice last week, but the Tigers still have plenty of weapons. Senior running back Roderick McDowell is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and junior wide receiver Sammy Watkins had 127 yards receiving and a touchdown against Georgia. After opening its season with a 38-35 victory over Georgia, the Tigers routed South Carolina State 52-13 before its bye week. Clemson is averaging 37.7 points since offensive coordinator Chad Morris took over in 2011, and the defense has shown improvement since allowing nearly 600 total yards against the Wolfpack last season. Senior linebacker Spencer Shuey had a team-high 18 tackles against Georgia, and defensive end Vic Beasley added two sacks.
NFL (week 3) for September 20
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0, 1-0 away) @ Philadelphia
Eagles (1-1, 0-1 home), Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA, Friday,
September 20, 10.30am
The Chiefs tied the Eagles and New York Jets for the
most giveaways with 37 in 2012.
Kansas City’s defence has been integral to the
early success, allowing 18 points and only one touchdown. Kelly, whose
fast-break offence is the talk of the league after Philadelphia rolled up 63
points in splitting its first two games, said he is not concerned about the
emotional impact of Reid's homecoming. His rapid-fire offence has been a boon
for QB Michael Vick, who is enjoying a renaissance after throwing for a
career-high 428 yards in Sunday’s 33-30 loss to San Diego. Wideout DeSean
Jackson, a malcontent for the previous two seasons, tops the league
with 297 yards receiving while RB LeSean McCoy has piled up an
NFL-high 237 yards rushing. Philadelphia’s defence could not slow Washington in
the second half of the season opener and was carved up by San Diego’s Philip
Rivers in a loss that was compounded by Kelly's clock mismanagement in the
final minutes.
Football (Europa League matchday 1) for September 20
Other tips
Valencia CF v Swansea City +2.5 $1.80 WIN (0-3)
SV Zulte Waregam WIN $2.25 v Wigan Athletic LOSE (0-0)
Lazio Roma WIN $1.57 v KP Legia Warszawa WIN (1-0)
FC St Gallen v FC Kuban Krasnodar DNB $2.10 LOSE (2-0)
Maccabi Tel Aviv WIN $1.71 v Apoel Nicosia LOSE (0-0)
Maccabi Haifa v AZ Alkmaar +2.5 $1.79 LOSE (0-1)
Betis Sevilla v Olympique Lyon DRAW $3.50 WIN (0-0)
PSV Eindhoven v Ludogorets Razgrad -2.5 $2.35 WIN (0-2)
Eintracht Frankfurt WIN $1.74 v FC Girondins Bordeaux WIN (3-0)
• Prices with thanks to Centrebet, correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.
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