Daily tips for January 19

Thanks for your support

First, the bad news – after 279 days, this is the final daily edition of my Last At Cannington blog. The good news – my tips and betting information will continue at The Inside Word (www.theinsidewordonline.com), which will comprise the same features as this blog plus much more; our expanded team will be working on some great sign-up deals and membership packages along with other unique features; the changeover will take approximately 48 hours so I expect to have tips posted for Tuesday (January 21); thanks for all your support over the past nine months and I look forward to you joining our Inside Word community and, as always; GL punters!


NFL playoffs (NFC Championship) for January 20

NFC Championship Game: San Francisco 49ers (12-4, 6-2 away) @ Seattle Seahawks (13-3, 7-1 home), CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA, Monday, January 20, 10.30am

Riding an eight-game winning streak, it’s easy to understand why the San Francisco 49ers feel they can perform better than they did in their past two visits to Seattle. Whether they’re good enough to end their road struggles against Russell Wilson (pictured) and the Seahawks and reach the Super Bowl for a second straight season will be determined with the NFC championship on the line. The 49ers are riding an eight-game winning streak and have posted back-to-back posts-eason road victories, but a return trip to the Super Bowl will hinge on overcoming a bitter rival and a venue that has been a house of horrors. Seattle has won the past two home match-ups with the 49ers by a combined 71-16 score. The Seahawks held off San Francisco to capture the NFC West title due in large part to their dominance at CenturyLink Field, where they are 16-1 over the past two seasons, including last week’s 23-15 victory over New Orleans. The teams have split the past four meetings, with San Francisco prevailing 19-17 at home on December 8 to avenge a 29-3 beating in Seattle in week 2.

Seattle opened as a field-goal home favourite and sharp action came in hard on the host, tacking a half-point hook on the line. The public money has sided with the red-hot Niners, however, and books are trying to stay at 3.5 by adjusting the vig on the Seahawks. One difference from the first meeting is the presence of wideout Michael Crabtree, who has 30 receptions in seven games since returning to the starting lineup following Achilles' tendon surgery. Anquan Boldin had eight catches for 136 yards last week and TE Vernon Davis caught his seventh TD pass in seven postseason games. RB Frank Gore rushed for 110 yards against the Seahawks last month and has a pair of 200-yard games against the Seahawks. Seattle has the luxury of leaning on running back Marshawn Lynch, who piled up 140 yards and scored twice a week ago to give him five touchdowns and three 100-yard performances in his last five playoff games. The Seahawks’ defence feeds off the crowd, ranking first in the NFL in points (14.4) and yards (273.3) permitted while also amassing a league-best 28 interceptions.

Confirmed bet

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (two units @ $1.62) WIN (17-23)

Lean

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks +39.5 WIN (17-23)


NFL playoffs (AFC Championship) for January 20

AFC Championship Game: New England Patriots (12-4, 4-4 away) @ Denver Broncos (13-3, 7-1 home), Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO, Monday, January 20, 7am

In a season in which Peyton Manning surpassed Tom Brady’s single-season record for touchdown passes, it’s fitting that these two legends of the game meet with the AFC title on the line. Manning is one win from advancing to his third Super Bowl, but his Denver Broncos have to get past his long-time nemesis and the New England Patriots. Manning shattered a number of passing records (including Brady’s single-season touchdown mark) and is an overwhelming favourite to win an unprecedented fifth MVP award. Standing in his way is Brady, who is attempting to become the first QB to reach six Super Bowls. It will mark the 15th overall match-up and fourth in the post-season for the two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Brady has dominated the rivalry with a 10-4 record against Manning, including a 34-31 overtime win at Foxboro on November 24 – a game in which the Patriots erased a 24-0 halftime deficit. Books opened the Broncos as big as 7-point home favorites but sharp money jumped on the Patriots, dropping the line as low as 4.5 with help from the public.

New England rode a punishing running game led by LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley, who combined for 218 yards and six touchdowns in last week’s win over the Colts. The 250-pound Blount has been a monster down the stretch with 431 yards and eight scores in his last three games, including a sledgehammer 166-yard, four-TD performance a week ago. New England’s defence, which allowed an average of 21.1 points during the regular season, registered four interceptions and three sacks against Colts QB Andrew Luck last week. Manning orchestrated the top offensive season in league history, throwing for 55 touchdowns and an NFL-record 5477 yards as Denver became the first team to surpass 600 points. The Broncos are the first team in history to have five players score 10 TDs, including wideouts Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, ex-Patriot Wes Welker and TE Julius Thomas, who missed the first match-up with New England but had six catches for 76 yards in last week's 24-17 win over San Diego. The ‘sharp’ opinion is that the Pats will keep it close, but I love the Broncos to cover the 4.5 on offer.

Confirmed bet

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos -4.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (16-26)

Lean

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos -56 $1.91 WIN (16-26)

EPL for January 19-20

Chelsea (14-4-3, 46 points) v Manchester United (11-4-6, 37 points), Stamford Bridge, London, England, Monday, January 20, 2am

Not too many EPL managers ever truly had the measure of Sir Alex Ferguson, but none irritated the former Manchester United manager more than Jose Mourinho. The latest chapter in this storied rivalry will be written tonight when Chelsea host new United boss David Moyes and his Red Devils to Stamford Bridge. In all, with four clubs, Mourinho has faced Manchester United 17 times, losing only twice. The latest meeting also went the Portuguese’s way. Back in August he travelled to Old Trafford with getting a draw plainly on his agenda. The Blues stifled the life out of United and returned with the goalless stalemate they sought. Mourinho’s plan for these games against his biggest rivals seems to be to draw away and win at home, and it’s working. Chelsea also drew 0-0 in a tedious pre-Christmas bore-fest at Arsenal, drew at Spurs with 10-men and have beaten Manchester City and Liverpool at home. Mourinho said new £21m signing Nemanja Matic would not start against United. Fellow midfielder Frank Lampard could return from a calf problem but Branislav Ivanovic remains sidelined with a knee injury.

It would be the best result yet for David Moyes at United if they could score the upset win here, easily surpassing the crushing victory in Leverkusen. If United were to lose it would leave them 12 points adrift of Chelsea with only 16 games to play. United have won five of their last six league games and are certainly entitled to believe that the top four is an achievable goal. But if they’re to do that they need some landmarks wins of their own, and the job won’t be made any easier by the absence of strikers Wayne Rooney (groin) and Robin van Persie (thigh). Defender Rafael serves the last of his three-match ban. Manchester United have actually won more games than Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, with 30 wins to 22 including last time out (a 3-2 against Chelsea’s nine men in October 2012). Moyes’ side have only won two of 10 matches against top-half opposition this season (W2, D3, L5).  But Mourinho has never lost a home game against Manchester United in two spells as Chelsea manager, and I don’t expect that stat to change.

Confirmed bets

Chelsea WIN v Manchester United (one unit @ $1.70) WIN (3-1)

Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur +2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (1-3)

Leans

Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur DRAW $3.00 LOSE (1-3)

Chelsea (2-1) v Manchester United $8.00 LOSE (3-1)

Tennis (Australian Open) for January 19

2014 Australian Open day 7, the Grand Slam of Asia-Pacific, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia, Sunday, January 19

After a 3-0 Saturday, let’s keep the momentum rolling at Melbourne Park today on a refreshingly cool Sunday’s play in the 2014 Australian Open. My best of the day involves one of the most enigmatic players on the tour, Stan Wawrinka (pictured), who faces 17th seed Tommy Rebredo here. The big key here is that the Swiss eighth seed has played a match-and-a-half fewer than most players after Vasek Pospisil withdrew and Andrey Golubev retired. He’ll take to the court on Sunday having played just five completed sets. Wawrinka faces a test ahead of a likely quarter-final meeting with Novak Djokovic in the form of Tommy Robredo, who is always tough to dislodge from a major and possesses a great record against Wawrinka. Robredo leads the career series, which stretches all the way back to 2004, by 6-1 and the Spaniard took down the Swiss twice last season in best of three set battles on clay and hard courts. Granted, Wawrinka is a much tougher prospect now than back in 2004 to 2008 when the majority of their meetings took place, but he'll be taking nothing for granted in this one. Robredo has beaten Roger Federer and Richard Gasquet in his last two Slams and he has another single-handed backhand exponent in his sights today after the win over Gasquet here.

Confirmed bets

Stan Wawrinka v Tommy Robredo +39.5 (one unit @ $1.87) LOSE (35)

Flavia Pennetta WIN v Angelique Kerber (one unit @ $1.80) WIN

Tomas Berdych v Kevin Anderson -37.5 (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (25)

Leans

Na Li v Ekaterina Makorova +20.5 $1.83 LOSE (14)

Stan Wawrinka 3-1 v Tommy Robredo $3.50 LOSE (3-0)

Eugenie Bouchard 2-0 v Casey Dellacqua $2.00 LOSE

Serena Williams v Ana Ivanovic +18.5 $1.83 WIN (28)

NHL for January 19

Los Angeles Kings (29-14-5, 63 points) @ Detroit Red Wings (20-17-10, 50 points), Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI, Sunday, January 19, 11.10am

The Detroit Red Wings haven’t scored a goal since their late outburst in Los Angeles last weekend. The Kings haven’t needed much scoring since that defeat but got plenty in the opener to their road trip. Los Angeles seeks a third consecutive win in this rematch with the Red Wings, who try to avoid suffering three straight regular-season shutouts for the first time in franchise history. Detroit (20-17-10) beat Los Angeles 3-1 last Saturday in the middle of a five-game trip, scoring twice in the final eight minutes with Tomas Tatar netting the game-winner. Not helping the Red Wings’ scoring woes is a lower-body injury to star forward Pavel Datsyuk (pictured). Detroit’s leading goal scorer and the newly named captain for the Russian Olympic team sat out the entire road trip. Daniel Alfredsson has been dealing with a troublesome back and Joakim Andersson was out on Thursday because of an upper-body injury. While it's unclear when Datsyuk, Alfredsson or Andersson will return, Darren Helm (groin), Stephen Weiss (sports hernia) and Johan Franzen (concussion) are out with long-term ailments.

The Kings (29-14-5) will try to take advantage of a short-handed Detroit team to win for the fifth time in seven games. Like the Red Wings with Howard, Los Angeles has gotten some strong goaltending recently from a player on the U.S. Olympic roster. Jonathan Quick has a 1.32 GAA in six games after missing nearly two months with a groin injury. Since losing to Detroit, he defeated Vancouver 1-0 on Monday and helped Los Angeles snap a five-game road losing streak with a 4-1 victory over St. Louis on Thursday. The start of a five-game trip saw the Kings’ offence get back on track with three goals in the third period, including Trevor Lewis’ first two of the season. He had one point in his first 38 games this season. Los Angeles has lost four straight in Detroit as Quick has posted a 4.17 GAA. He’s lost six of seven overall against the Red Wings with a 3.62 GAA. Howard is 3-1-0 with a 1.51 GAA in his last four meetings with Los Angeles.

Confirmed bets

Calgary Flames @ Vancouver Canucks -1.5 (one unit @ $2.40) LOSE (2-3)

San Jose Sharks @ Tampa Bay Lightning +5.5 (one unit @ $2.05) WIN (5-4)
Columbus Blue Jackets WIN @ Buffalo Sabres (one unit @ $1.87) WIN (4-3)
New York Rangers @ Ottawa Senators -5.5 (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (4-1)
Edmonton Oilers @ Winnipeg Jets WIN (one unit @ $1.66) WIN (2-3)
Los Angeles Kings WIN @ Detroit Red Wings (one unit @ $1.77) LOSE (2-3)

Leans

Edmonton Oilers @ Winnipeg Jets +5.5 $1.70 LOSE (2-3)
New York Islanders @ Philadelphia Flyers WIN $1.68 WIN (4-6)
Montreal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs WIN $1.91 WIN (3-5)
Florida Panthers WIN $2.15 @ Carolina Hurricanes LOSE (2-3)
Los Angeles Kings @ Detroit Red Wings -5 $1.77 PUSH (2-3)
Anaheim Ducks @ St Louis Blues +5.5 $2.00 LOSE (2-3)
Colorado Avalanche WIN $1.91 @ Nashville Predators WIN (5-4)
New Jersey Devils @ Phoenix Coyotes -5 $2.00 PUSH (2-3)
Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild NO LEAN

NBA for January 19

Milwaukee Bucks (7-31, 4-16 away) @ Houston Rockets (26-15, 15-6 home), Toyota Center, Houston, TX, Sunday, January 19, 12.10pm

The Houston Rockets put together a terrific first half against one of the NBA's best teams before falling apart in record-setting fashion down the stretch. They’re not likely to run into trouble against the league’s worst club. Houston looks to get back on track when it hosts the Milwaukee Bucks, who again try for their first win in 2014. The Rockets (26-15) scored a season-high 73 points over the first two quarters and took a 14-point lead into halftime against Oklahoma City before coming undone in Thursday’s 104-92 loss. Houston shot 19.4 per cent and was outscored 45-19 over the final 24 minutes, setting an NBA record for the largest scoring differential between two halves. The Rockets shot 40.2 per cent for the game, dropping to 0-7 when they’re below 42.0 per cent. James Harden, averaging a team-leading 24.4 points, was held to 16 for the second time in three games while going 6 of 16 from the field. Harden is averaging 25.7 points while shooting 51.0 per cent in three career starts versus Milwaukee.

The Rockets have to like their chances of regrouping against Milwaukee (7-31), which has dropped 15 of 17, including all seven games this month by an average of 14.0 points. None of the Bucks’ wins have come against teams with winning records. While the Bucks have taken three of five from Houston there has been significant roster turnover. However, Ersan Ilyasova played a big role in a 110-107 win at Houston on February 27, posting 20 points and 10 rebounds. Averaging a league-low 91.3 points, Milwaukee was held to under 80 for the eighth time in Wednesday’s 82-77 loss to Memphis. Brandon Knight had 27 points but Ilyasova scored just four on 2-of-11 shooting. The Bucks had a chance to tie the game in the closing seconds, but center Larry Sanders missed his only three-point attempt of the season after the Grizzlies forced the ball out of Knight’s hands. The Bucks are 5-4 when Knight scores at least 19 points compared to 0-21 when he doesn’t. I fancy the Rockets to respond in emphatic fashion here.

Confirmed bets

Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets -13.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (104-114)
Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls -8 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (78-103)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Indiana Pacers -198 (one unit @ $1.91) PUSH (92-106)

Leans

Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards -6 $1.91 LOSE (104-98)

Miami Heat @ Charlotte Bobcats -194 $1.91 LOSE/OT (104-96)

Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves -206 $1.91 WIN (72-98)

Golden State Warriors @ New Orleans Pelicans +5 $1.91 LOSE (97-87)Portland Trail Blazers @ Dallas Mavericks +2 $1.91 LOSE (127-111)

EPL for January 18-19

Sunderland (4-5-12, 17 points) v Southampton (8-6-7, 30 points), Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England, Saturday, January 18, 11.45pm

Talk about clubs heading in different directions – Sunderland made headlines on the pitch with their emphatic win at Fulham last week, which lifted them off the bottom of the table. Despite a return to winning ways, all the headlines at Southampton have centred on events off the pitch following the departure of chairman Nicola Cortese. This match falls a year to the day since Cortese raised eyebrows by appointing Mauricio Pochettino as manager. There’s no doubting the strides the team and the club have since made. The close relationship the manager enjoyed with the Italian was clear and the speculation about his future was understandable. Pochettino said this week that he will be in charge at least until the end of the season, but admitted the events that have unfolded have been a distraction. Their victory last time out against West Brom came after a run of just five points from 27. Southampton forward Pablo Osvaldo remains unavailable as he completes a three-match ban. Calum Chambers should recover in time from illness, but Victor Wanyama is not ready to return from injury.

Sunderland are all too aware of the need for solidity with Gus Poyet their sixth boss in five years. They’ve won their last three games in three different competitions and have only lost one of their last six in the Premier League. If they can record back-to-back league wins for the first time this season, confidence and belief will rise further. The four goals at Fulham were a welcome boost but what is even more encouraging is the way they have tightened up at the back. They’ve kept five clean sheets in their last 11 matches and will need to avoid conceding soft goals to cement their EPL survival. Sunderland beat Southampton in the League Cup at the Stadium of Light earlier this season but the Black Cats’ last home league win against the Saints was in December 1999 – a 2-0 victory courtesy of two Kevin Phillips goals. Sunderland have no new injury concerns, although goalkeeper Keiren Westwood could be out for around three months having undergone a shoulder operation. Poyet is also still without defender Carlos Cuellar, who continues his recovery from a thigh injury.

Confirmed bets

Sunderland DNB v Southampton (one unit @ $2.05) PUSH (2-2)

Liverpool v Aston Villa BTS (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (2-2)

Manchester City v Cardiff City +3.5 (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (4-2)

Crystal Palace v Stoke City -2.5 (one unit @ $1.57) WIN (1-0)

Leans  

Sunderland v Southampton -2.5 $1.65 LOSE (2-2)

Norwich City v Hull City WIN $2.90 LOSE (1-0)

Arsenal (win to nil) v Fulham $1.85 WIN (2-0)

West Ham United v Newcastle United +2.5 $1.80 WIN (1-3)

Crystal Palace WIN $2.30 v Stoke City WIN (1-0)

Manchester City -3 $3.10 v Cardiff City LOSE (4-2)

Liverpool v Aston Villa +2(hcp) $2.30 WIN (2-2)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.