Daily tips for January 11

What’s on today

The sporting spotlight shines on Australia’s Gold Coast today for the running of the Magic Millions Raceday, featuring the $2 million 2YO Classic – my preview of the day’s racing and tips will be available by 12.30pm; there’s a big schedule of a dozen NBA games while there are six NHL games to be played; BBL03 continues with a day game fixtured between the Hobart Hurricanes and winless Sydney Thunder with A-League, EPL and more to come this evening; GL punters!


A-League (round 14) for January 11

Western Sydney Wanderers (6-5-2, 23 points) v Sydney FC (6-1-6, 19 points), Pirtek Stadium, Parramatta, Saturday, January 11, 7.40pm

The latest edition of the A-League’s Sydney derby comes at a time of flux for the combatants. Western Sydney suffered a rare defeat on home soil (their first in 360 days) after a shock 3-1 loss to Wellington Phoenix back on New Year's Day. It continues a patchy run of form for Tony Popovic's side, who have managed just two wins from their past five outings. This looms as a crucial period for the Wanderers as they are scheduled to face the Victory in Melbourne on Tuesday. However, Western Sydney have almost every player from which to choose with no major injury concerns. Despite boasting one of the best squads in the competition and Popovic's high rotation policy between matches, the Wanderers appeared tired from the hectic festive period and it took its toll in the upset loss to Wellington. Western Sydney leads the head-to-head record with two wins from four match-ups and one draw. They won the most previous clash 2-0 back on October 26 last year but Sydney are undefeated at Pirtek Stadium in this fixture.

Local rivals Sydney managed to arrest their mini-slump with a gritty come-from-behind 2-2 draw against Adelaide. The Sky Blues remain in fifth spot on the ladder but need to improve on one win from their last five games to stay there. Coach Frank Farina will need to call on a new-look midfield for this one with Nicky Carle (suspended) and Hagi Gligor (Australia under-22 duty) both unavailable. Brett Emerton (pictured), Terry McFlynn and Matt Thompson are expected to fight for the two free spots. Sebastian Ryall is also a chance to return from injury in defence. Japanese midfielder Shinji Ono was the difference in the previous derby earlier this season, setting up the Wanderers' first goal before doing it all himself to score the second. With the Sky Blues to have almost a totally different midfield to their clash with Adelaide, it's vital they are on the same page to shut down the 34-year-old wizard. Corey Gamiero’s pace is a major weapon for Sydney and his finish for the equaliser against the Reds last weekend was a small snapshot of his undoubted ability.

Confirmed bet

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC +0.5 (one unit @ $2.50) LOSE (1-0)
Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United DRAW (one unit @ $4.30) LOSE (1-2)

Leans

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC -2.5 $1.90 WIN (1-0)
Brisbane Roar v Adelaide United -2.5 $1.95 LOSE (1-2)


Cricket (Big Bash League) for January 11

Hobart Hurricanes (1-2-1, 3 points) v Sydney Thunder (0-5-0, 0 points), Blundstone Arena, Hobart, Saturday, January 10, 1.50pm

The Gambler’s Fallacy is the idea that past behaviour influences future behaviour. When gamblers take that idea into a casino, things get very bad, very quickly. On August 18, 1913 at the Monte Carlo Casino someone noticed that the roulette ball had fallen on black for quite some time. The thought process was that the ball had fallen on black so many times that it had to fall on red sometime soon. Eventually, it did fall on red, but not until after 26 spins of the wheel! That story could have been written for punters waiting for the Sydney Thunder to break their duck! Round 6 of the KFC T20 Big Bash League kicks off with the bottom two sides on the table clashing in Hobart. The home side will be without spinner Xavier Doherty, called up to the Australian one-day squad, while George Bailey also remains on national duty. The Thunder will still be without Michael Clarke and David Warner for the same reason.

The visitors will also be without a strike weapon, with Sri Lankan star import Tillakaratne Dilshan failing a fitness test on his back. He will be replaced in the squad by ACT leg-spinning all-rounder Blake Dean. Hobart looked to have the match well in hand against the Perth Scorchers before they fell away badly late in the run-chase. If Travis Birt or Ben Dunk don’t make big scores, they often struggle. However, they have a solid record playing at home and a win would keep them in the hunt for a top-four finish. The Thunder’s form-line is atrocious and being flogged by the Brisbane Heat (who were down on confidence after three successive losses) is a bad sign. One of these days Mike Hussey will get the Thunder home off his own bat. They just don’t have enough batting class around him. Hussey has 226 runs to his name, at an average of 45.2 and a SR of 134.5, and is equal with Renegades captain Aaron Finch with the most 50s of the tournament.

Confirmed bets

Total sixes -8.5 (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (7)
Hobart Hurricanes WIN v Sydney Thunder (two units @ $1.53) WIN

Lean

Brisbane Heat WIN $2.45 v Melbourne Stars


Racing for January 11

Today’s highlights

Gold Coast R2 $170,000 Oracle Magic Millions Stayers Cup (1800m, quality)

Gold Coast R3 $164,000 R.M. Williams Magic Millions F&M Handicap (1300m, quality)

Gold Coast R4 $176,000 Myer Magic Millions Open Sprint (1100m, quality)
Gold Coast R5 $820,000 Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Guineas (1400m, SWP)

Gold Coast R6 $1.9 million Jeep Magic Millions 2YO Classic (1200m, set weights)

Gold Coast R7 $328,000 Avmin-Air Charter Specialists Magic Millions Cup (1400m, quality)
Flemington R6 Listed $120,000 Chester Manifold Stakes (1400m, handicap)

Horse racing (note – today’s Ascot meeting has been postponed to tomorrow): Flemington (Vic – dead 4), Warwick Farm (NSW – good 3), Gold Coast (Qld – dead 4), Morphettville (SA – dead 4), Doomben (Qld – dead 5), Pakenham (Vic – dead 5), Newcastle (NSW – good 3), Glen Innes (NSW – fast 1), Fannie Bay (NT – good), Toowoomba (Qld – dead 4). Harness racing: Albion Park (Qld), Bendigo (Vic), Bunbury (WA), Globe Derby (SA), Menangle (NSW), Newcastle (NSW). Greyhound racing: Richmond (NSW), The Gardens (NSW), Warragul (Vic), Ipswich (Qld), The Meadows (Vic), Cannington (WA), Wentworth Park (NSW).

Conditions look near perfect for today’s massive Magic Millions Raceday on the Gold Coast with the track rated a dead (4) and the temperature forecast to reach 27°C. This is a tricky track to negotiate – it’s virtually a rectangle with rounded corners, creating two long straights and two short chutes, to go with the 430m home straight. It’s a task and a half to win coming from out wide but a class jockey can get it done. As featured on Thursday, I’m making Invisible my tip for the 2YO Classic but there’s good value right across the card. Another I’m keen on today is #8 Black Jet in the Oracle Magic Millions Stayers Cup over 1800 metres. The 4yo gelding for Liam Birchley and Gold Coast master jockey Glen Colless has won five of 10 including his last two. He’s a notch below some of these but catches this improving grey looks to have plenty of ticks in his favour here.

Confirmed bets

Flemington R2 #5 It’s One (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R6 #8 Anlon (E/W 1x3) 1st ($3.70/$1.60)

Warwick Farm R2 #2 Rule Book (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($2.20)

Warwick Farm R4 #1 Prettyfamous (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Gold Coast R2 #8 Black Jet (E/W) LOSE (4th)

Gold Coast R6 #7 Invisible (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Gold Coast R7 #6 Velrosso (E/W 1x3) 1st ($4.00/$2.10)
Morphettville R3 #1 Crabbing (E/W 1x4) 3rd ($1.40)

Leans

Flemington R3 #8 Joplin (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R4 #7 Adirondack (E/W) 3rd ($2.10)

Flemington R7 #8 Free Of Doubt (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Flemington R8 #1 About Square (E/W) 2nd ($3.50)
Warwick Farm R3 #9 Agadir (E/W 1x4) 1st ($2.40/$1.30)

Warwick Farm R6 #1 Territory (E/W 1x2) 2nd ($1.80)

Gold Coast R3 #6 Arms Length (E/W) 3rd ($8.60)

Gold Coast R4 #12 The Black Superman (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Gold Coast R5 #5 Weinholt (E/W) LOSE (U/P)

Gold Coast R8 #11 Gundy Spirit (win)

Doomben R3 #12 Wicked Daughter (win) LOSE (3rd)

Morphettville R5 #8 Natural Disaster (E/W 1x2) 1st ($3.70/$2.10)

Morphettville R8 #4 Golden Dane (E/W 1x4) 2nd ($1.30)

Newcastle R7 #5 Point Made (E/W) LOSE (U/P)
Pakenham R2 #11 Golden Kiss (win) 1st ($2.50)

NBA for January 11

Phoenix Suns (21-13, 9-8 away) @ Memphis Grizzlies (15-19, 7-12 home), FedExForum, Memphis, TN, Saturday, January 11, 12.10pm

The Phoenix Suns have overcome some pessimistic pre-season predictions and earned enough seemingly improbable victories to be recognised as one of the league’s surprise packets. It now appears they’ll have to contend with the absence of Eric Bledsoe for a while longer. Visiting Phoenix looks to beat the Memphis Grizzlies for the first time in three tries this season after learning Bledsoe will need surgery that will keep him out indefinitely. Meanwhile, the home side is getting its season back on track after a shocking start. The fourth-year guard, acquired from the Los Angeles Clippers in a trade July 10, is averaging 18.0 points (more than double his career high of 8.5 set last season) to help the Suns (21-13) get off to solid start few expected. Bledsoe, though, has missed the last four games with what the team said was a sprained right knee. The injury appears to be more serious as he suffered what’s believed to be meniscus damage in Phoenix’s win over Bledsoe’s former team on December 30.

The Suns are 5-5 overall without Bledsoe, including a 99-91 loss to Memphis on January 2 in the first game since his latest setback. Goran Dragic is averaging 23.7 points over his last six, and he’ll look to help the Suns avenge two previous losses to Memphis, which also won the first meeting 110-91 on December 3 at FedExForum. Mike Conley had 18 points and 14 assists in that contest, and he nearly helped the Grizzlies (15-19) pull off a comeback of their own in Tuesday’s 110-108 overtime loss to San Antonio. Conley scored 30 points (one off his career high) and hit a layup at the end of regulation to force overtime. His 29-footer at the end of OT fell short. Zach Randolph (pictured) added 17 points for Memphis, which trailed by 16 points with less than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Randolph sat out the first meeting with the Suns with a toe injury, but finished with 20 points and 15 rebounds in last week’s contest.

Confirmed bets

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers -186.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (66-93)

Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks +3 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (80-83)

Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (99-104)

Miami Heat -5.5 @ Brooklyn Nets (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (95-104)

Dallas Mavericks -1.5 @ New Orleans Pelicans (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (107-90)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers -10.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (87-123)

Leans

Detroit Pistons -2 $1.91 @ Philadelphia 76ers WIN (114-104)

Houston Rockets @ Atlanta Hawks -207.5 $1.91 WIN (80-83)

Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies +195.5 $1.91 WIN (99-104)

Charlotte Bobcats @ Minnesota Timberwolves TT +106 WIN (92-119)

Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks -177.5 $1.91 WIN (81-72)

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz -191 $1.91 LOSE (113-102)

Orlando Magic +7 $1.91 @ Sacramento Kings LOSE (83-103)

Boston Celtics +11.5 $1.91 @ Golden State Warriors WIN (97-99)

NHL for January 11

Pittsburgh Penguins (32-12-1, 65 points) @ Edmonton Oilers (14-27-5, 33 points), Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB, Canada, Saturday, January 11, 2.10pm

The red-hot Pittsburgh Penguins continue their western Canadian road trip with a match-up against the Edmonton Oilers and their league-worst defence. Pittsburgh (32-12-1) used a pair of comebacks to improve to 17-3-0 in its last 20. The Penguins scored twice in the final period Sunday in a 6-5 win over Winnipeg but had a far more dramatic rally in the opener to the trip Tuesday against Vancouver. Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang scored in the final 1:10 of regulation, and Crosby also had the shootout winner in a 5-4 victory. The Penguins, averaging 3.18 goals, have scored 15 times during a three-game win streak with the final two victories coinciding with the returns of Evgeni Malkin (pictured) and Letang from injuries. Malkin has three goals and an assist in those games, and Pittsburgh has won its last nine when he’s been in the line-up. The Oilers, last in the Western Conference, don’t look capable of slowing down the East-leading Penguins down.

Edmonton (14-27-5) has given up 25 goals during a 1-3-2 stretch and its 159 allowed are easily the most in the league. After topping Tampa Bay 5-3 on Sunday, the Oilers gave up three goals in the second period to visiting St Louis on Tuesday en route to a 5-2 defeat. Edmonton was stingier in Pittsburgh on October 15 but couldn’t get enough scoring in a 3-2 loss. The game was tied at 2-all before Malkin put the Penguins ahead with a power-play goal with 12:40 remaining. Malkin has six points in four career games against the Oilers, but the goal in October is his lone one in the series. Crosby has zero goals and seven assists in five career meetings with Edmonton. The Pens have gone over 5.5 in eight of their last 10 games. The average combined score in those games has been 7.1 goals per game. As for the Oilers, they’ve gone over in nine of 10.

Confirmed bets

Grand Salami +34.5 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (23)

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Edmonton Oilers +5.5 (1.5 units @ $1.77) WIN (3-4)

Dallas Stars @ New York Rangers TT +2.5 (one @ $1.64) WIN (2-3)

Leans

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Washington Capitals +5.5 $1.80 LOSE (2-3)

St Louis Blues @ Vancouver Canucks WIN $1.91 WIN (1-2)

Carolina Hurricanes @ Columbus Blue Jackets +5.5 $2.10 LOSE (0-3)

New York Islanders WIN $2.22 @ Colorado Avalanche WIN (2-1)

Pittsburgh Penguins WIN NT $1.87 @ Edmonton Oilers LOSE (3-4)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.