Daily tips for December 27

What’s on today

First-up today is a full card of 10 EPL games as the competition enters the make-or-break Boxing Day/New Year period; four NBA games are scheduled with Atlanta’s visit to Cleveland rated the closest match-up of the day; two more College Football bowl games are on the card along with A-League, KFC Big Bash and racing; GL punters!


Cricket (Big Bash League) for December 27

Sydney Thunder  (0-1-0, 0 points) v Adelaide Strikers (0-0-1, 1 point), ANZ Stadium, Sydney, Friday, December 27, 7.40pm

It’s kind of appropriate that the Melbourne Heart and Sydney Thunder are both in action tonight. The Heart are yet to open their account in the A-League for 2013-14 while the Thunder’s losing runs stretches a staggering 14 games back to December 2011. It gets no easier here – the Thunder lost to crosstown rivals the Sixers in the tournament opener and they’re without Dave Warner and Usman Khawaja.  But I like the direction in which the Thunder are headed – Chris Gayle’s laughable presence is no longer a distraction while the likes of Mike Hussey (pictured), Eoin Morgan and Dirk Nannes bring so much crucial experience to an otherwise young side brimming with talent. The Thunder’s last win in this series came over the Strikers but the last meeting on December 20 last year ended with a big win for Adelaide after the hosts could manage just 126 chasing the Strikers’ 6/177. Adelaide took a point away from their opening match in Hobart against the Hurricanes last Sunday, with the match abandoned after just six overs of play.

As a result, both teams are super keen to take advantage of the short straight boundaries of Stadium Australia. If the Thunder quicks learned anything from Alex Hales’ whirlwind innings in Hobart last weekend, it’s that he can find the boundary just as comfortably all around the ground. Point, cover, long off, mid-wicket, even twice over the top of the ’keeper’s head. Hales found the boundary ten times in just 19 balls, making 49 before running himself out. Unlike the Thunder, they have been able to name an unchanged 13-man squad for their second match with Shaun Tait and Kane Richardson spearheading the attack. In BBL02, the team bowling first won three of the four games played at Stadium Australia. That is well above the 63 per cent success rate for teams bowling first across the competition last summer. Adelaide starts one of the shortest priced favourites in the history of the competition ($1.53) but anything can happen in this tournament.

Confirmed bets

Sydney Thunder WIN v Adelaide Strikers (one unit @ $2.50)

Adelaide Strikers most sixes (1.5 units @ $1.65)

Lean

Sydney Thunder most runs – Eoin Morgan $4.75

Record: 2-3, -0.7 units

A-League (round 12) for December 27

Melbourne Heart (0-4-7, 4 points) v Wellington Phoenix (1-4-6, 7 points), AAMI Park, Melbourne, Friday, December 27, 7.30pm

The Melbourne Heart organisation is in crisis. Mainstream media reports only hint at the issues going on behind the scenes. I expect that the club will soon be under new ownership and a new manager installed by the name of Harry Kewell. Honestly. In the meantime, the Heart are outwardly desperate to score their first win of the A-League season over fellow battlers the Wellington Phoenix. At least the Kiwis have a win on the board after beating Sydney 1-0 at home last time out. It was due reward for Wellington who are showing signs of improvement under Ernie Merrick although they remain inconsistent to the point of schizophrenia. Paul Ifill is out for the season and, at 34, may not play again for the Phoenix. However, it’s not a major loss as injuries have robbed the Englishman of his best over the past two seasons. Merrick has the likes of Carlos Hernandez (pictured), Jeremy Brockie, Kenny Cunningham and Stein Huysegems to call upon, ably supported by a crop of younger locals. But still, it's one less experienced body in the final third.

How the Heart must envy that 'W' in their opponents' results column. They haven't done enough to earn one of their own yet, and rolled over tamely against local rivals Melbourne Victory last week – their cause not helped by the early dismissal of Patrick Kisnorbo. The home game against their fellow strugglers from NZ had been earmarked as the most likely opportunity to get off the mark. But a Phoenix side buoyed by a drought-breaking win will be no easy mark. John Aloisi won’t be with the club for much longer with his contract buyout already budgeted by the new owners. On paper, the squad is hardly any worse than that of the other clubs in the bottom half of the table but they simply can't they score goals, keep clean sheets or win games. Two battling draws against the Wanderers and Adelaide in the last month or so has been the highlight of the team's season so far. With such pressure on the Heart, this could be an anaemic, dour affair.

Confirmed bet

Melbourne Heart v Wellington Phoenix +0.5 (one unit @ $1.67)

Lean

Melbourne Heart v Wellington Phoenix -2.5 $1.98

NBA for December 27

Atlanta Hawks (15-13, 4-9 away) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (10-17, 8-5 home), Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH, Friday, December 27, 11.10am

The Atlanta Hawks have been covering machines over the past fortnight. They may have the third-best record in the Eastern Conference and a good chance to improve their woeful road record in Cleveland. Atlanta is just 4-9 away from home and has lost five straight since posting a road victory over the Detroit Pistons on November 22. The Cavaliers have an 8-5 home mark but are coming off their worst in-town showing of the season, a 115-92 defeat against the Detroit Pistons on Monday. Cleveland will be looking to shake off back-to-back losing efforts by an average of 19.5 points when they entertain the Hawks. Point guard Kyrie Irving figures to have plenty of motivation after going scoreless on 0-for-9 shooting against the Hawks earlier this month. Since that horrific performance, Irving has scored 20 or more points in six of eight games while averaging 25.8 points. He has three 30-point outings during the stretch that has raised his season mark to 21.5. Dion Waiters, who scored a season-best 30 against Atlanta, may miss his fourth straight game with right wrist tendinitis.

Atlanta lost in overtime to the Miami Heat on Monday despite making 17 three-pointers (tying for second-most in franchise history) including a career-best seven from Paul Millsap. Center Al Horford is averaging a career-best 18.3 points and looks on his way to the third All-Star appearance of his career. Horford has played superbly over the past six games, posting four double-doubles and averaging 23.2 points and 9.5 rebounds. The Hawks are 10-3 when Horford scores at least 19 compared to 5-10 when he doesn't. He had a team-high 22 in a 108-89 rout of the Cavaliers on December 6. Millsap is averaging 16.7 points and opening eyes with his sudden ability to knock down three-point shots. After making just 31 in seven seasons with the Utah Jazz, the 6-8 forward has made 30 this season while shooting an impressive 45.5 per cent from behind the arc, eighth best in the NBA. Atlanta leads the NBA in assists per game (25.7) and has had least 20 in 26 of its 28 games. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings in Cleveland while the ‘over’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

Confirmed bets

Atlanta Hawks -2.5 @ Cleveland Cavaliers (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (127-125)

Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets -199 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (92-100)

San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks +3 (one unit @ $1.91) LOSE (116-107)

Leans

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers +204.5 $1.91 WIN (127-125)

Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets -7.5 $1.91 WIN (92-100)

San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks +208 $1.91 WIN (116-107)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers -4 $1.91 PUSH (112-116)

College Football for December 27

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: Pittsburgh Panthers (6-6, 3-5 ACC) v Bowling Green Falcons (10-3, 7-1 MAC), Ford Field, Detroit, MI, Friday, December 27, 10am

Bowling Green returns to Ford Field for the second time in 20 days when it faces Pittsburgh in the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl. The Falcons claimed their first MAC Championship in 21 years with a 47-27 victory over previously undefeated Northern Illinois, but they will make this trip to Detroit without Dave Clawson, who has accepted the coaching role at Wake Forest. Special teams coordinator Adam Scheier will serve as the interim coach. The Falcons rank fifth in the country in scoring defence (14.8 points) and eighth in total defence (308.7 yards), but the most dominant defensive player on the field figures to be Panthers defensive tackle Aaron Donald. The Bronko Nagurski Trophy winner and ACC Defensive Player of the Year leads the nation in tackles for loss (26.5). With 77 catches for 1001 yards, Tyler Boyd broke Larry Fitzgerald’s school record of 69 receptions by a freshman. The Bowling Green offense has outscored opponents 223-44. Matt Johnson, who threw for a career-high 393 yards and broke a MAC championship record with five touchdown passes, has thrown for at least three scores four times during the winning streak. Great betting opportunity here as I have the line almost opposite of the seven points on offer in favour of the Falcons.

Confirmed bet

Pittsburgh Panthers +7 v Bowling Green Falcons (two units @ $1.91) WIN (30-27)

Lean

Pittsburgh Panthers v Bowling Green Falcons +49.5 WIN (30-27)

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Utah State Aggies (8-5, 7-1 MW) v 23 Northern Illinois Huskies (12-1, 8-0 MAC), Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA, Friday, December 27, 1.30pm

Heisman Trophy finalist Jordan Lynch plays the final game of his stellar college career when Northern Illinois faces Utah State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Lynch has passed for 2676 yards and 23 touchdowns, but it is his running abilities that allowed him to crash the Heisman festivities. Lynch rushed for 1881 yards and 22 scores and twice ran for more than 300 yards in a game. Lynch is complemented by running back Cameron Stingily (1081, nine touchdowns). The Huskies were hoping to play in a BCS bowl for the second straight year but were relegated to the Poinsettia Bowl after losing to Bowling Green in the Mid-American Conference title game. A victory would give Northern Illinois the first 13-win season in school history while Utah State is playing in back-to-back-to-back bowls for the first time ever. The Aggies lost star quarterback Chuckie Keeton at mid-season and it was thought their fortunes would spiral downward. But Utah State rebounded to win its final five regular-season games and is brimming with confidence after giving Fresno State a hard battle in the Mountain West title game before succumbing. The Aggies rank seventh in scoring defence (17.3), 10th in rushing defence (107.3) and 12th in total defence (332.1).

Confirmed bet

Utah State Aggies v 23 Northern Illinois Huskies -56.5 (one unit @ $1.91) WIN (21-14)

Lean

Utah State Aggies v 23 Northern Illinois Huskies WIN $1.91 LOSE (21-14)

EPL for December 27

Manchester City (11-2-3, 35 points) v Liverpool (10-3-3, 33 points), Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England, Friday, December 27, 7am

The Christmas-New Year period is crucial for sides at either end of the EPL table. With the top five sides separated by just five points it’s a chance to steal a break on the other sides while it can be make-or-break for the relegation-threatened teams. One fixture stands above all on Boxing Day as ladder leaders Liverpool make the short trip to Manchester to take on third-place City. For all the debate about Manchester City’s away form, they are a perfect eight of eight at home with 35 goals scored in the process (most since Tottenham in 1962-63). City is the only team in the Premier League yet to drop a point at home this season. They have also scored in each of their last 58 Premier League home games. Manuel Pellegrini’s side has the best record in the division against top-half opposition, winning five of eight games and losing only at Chelsea. City is without leading goal scorer Sergio Aguero and defenders Matija Nastasic, Pablo Zabaleta and Micah Richards here.

Liverpool will have closely monitored the way City hit Norwich for seven and Arsenal and Spurs for six. City have scored three goals or more in 10 of their last 12 games in all competitions. The City backline face the ultimate test in this one. The current figures associated with Luis Suarez are nothing short of remarkable. He’s scored 36 goals in his past 34 games for Liverpool in all competitions and 29 in 26 Premier League matches in 2013. Suarez also has 10 goals for December – the most in a month by any player in Premier League history. He has 29 goals in 26 league appearances this calendar year. The Reds have won their last four league matches, scoring 17 goals in doing so. However, they have only won one of their last five EPL away games (D2, L2). Defender Jon Flanagan is in doubt with a hamstring strain while Steven Gerrard, Daniel Sturridge, Jose Enrique and Sebastian Coates are all long-term absentees.

Confirmed bets

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace -2.5 (two units @ $1.67) WIN (0-1)

Chelsea -1 v Swansea City (one unit @ $1.85) PUSH (1-0)

Manchester City WIN v Liverpool (one unit @ $1.80) WIN (2-1)

Newcastle United WIN v Stoke City (one unit @ $1.75) WIN (5-1)

Cardiff City (double chance) v Southampton (one unit @ $1.60) LOSE (0-3)

Leans

Hull City v Manchester United -2.5 $1.73 LOSE (2-3)

Norwich City v Fulham (double chance) $1.75 WIN (1-2)
West Ham United v Arsenal (to nil) $2.70 LOSE (1-3)

Tottenham Hotspur v West Bromwich Albion BTS $1.67 WIN (1-1)
Cardiff City WIN $3.20 v Southampton LOSE (0-3)

Everton (to nil) $2.10 v Sunderland LOSE (0-1)

Manchester City v Liverpool +3.5 $2.15 LOSE (2-1)

• Selections are listed in three categories – 1) Suggested (likely bet but yet to be finalised); 2) Confirmed (locked in at the price listed); and 3) Leans (tips, but not recommended bets); all times quoted are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT); prices with thanks to Centrebet (except where markets are not available), correct at time of publication – for most people gambling is an exciting and fun recreational pursuit. For others it can become a problem with devastating consequences for them, their families and friends. We want you to enjoy your gambling experience. We want you to stay in control of your gambling and not allow your gambling to control you.